Thursday, October 09, 2008

Watch Those Polls, Folks! Watch Those Polls!

I have wondered how the latest Gallup daily tracking poll has the Democrat presidential nominee, Sen. Messiah Barack Obama, an 11-point lead over the Republican presidential nominee. Sen. John "F--- You" McCain.
Now I know.
Thanks to blogger WLS over at Patterico's Pontifications, we know that Gallup is using registered voters rather than likely voters.
The question is why?
Because registered voters always favor Democrats. Likely voters generally favor Republicans.
There are seven polls that are using the likely voter scenario. They all show Sen. Messiah Barack in the lead from as little as three percent to as much as eight percent. That averages out to Obama +5. Almost within the margin of error.
Three polls are using the registered voter scenario. They also all show Sen. Messiah Barack in the lead by as little as six percent up to the 11%. And that averages out to Obama +8. And no doubt that is outside the margin of error.
One thing of great importance no matter where any one stands on the election. Polling should be done at this point using only likely voters. Not because it favors Republicans, but because it is less than a month before the election. Likely voters are, likely. Registered voters are notorious for having lower turnout rates. Which is why they tend to not be all that correct.
If you favor Sen. Messiah Barack, both scenarios are good for him. But, the likely voter polls have been tightening. So, he needs to have the most accurate polling to know where he needs to spend resources. Same for Sen. "F--- You" McCain. If the McCain camp goes by registered voter polls, it looks bleak. But, one thing is certain. It is not all that bleak for Sen. "F--- You" McCain nor a runaway for Sen. Messiah Barack.
Also, here is an interesting post regarding the meaning of state polls from D. J. Drummond over at Wizbang.
Bottom line, folks.
Team McCain still has a chance and the so-called negative advertising may lead the way. Like it or not. Team Obama can not rest on it's lead. And it may happen. Remember how Sen. Messiah Barack cruised at the end of the Democrat primary season? Sen. St. Hillary Clinton almost pulled off the Democrat nomination.
Watch the polls and how they are reported throughout all media outlets.

1 comment:

DoorHold said...

Is there a one-stop-shopping list of past polls comparing "registered voters" to election results?