Sunday, October 12, 2008

Here Is The Real Story Of The "Bradley Effect"

As you know, I have been one of the few brave souls to explain that the so-called "Bradley effect", where it is alleged that some people told pollsters in 1982 that they were going to vote for black Democrat Tom Bradley for governor in California over white Republican George Deukmejian is not real.
Well, thanks to Lance Tarrance, who was the chief Deukmejian pollster for that election, he sheds some facts to bolster the reality that there was no "Bradley effect" in the 1982 California gubernatorial election.
One of the reasons that people still write this canard is that the long-discredited Field Poll said that on the last weekend before the election, they had Mr. Bradley seven points ahead of Mr. Deukmejian.
The following is the tracking polling done by Mr. Tarrance the month proceeding the election:

Week of:Oct.7th Oct. 14th Oct. 21st Oct. 28 Nov. 1
Bradley 49 45 46 45 45
Deukmejian 37 41 41 42 44

As noted by Mr. Tarrance, it was clear that Mr. Deukmejian was closing in on Mr. Bradley. And Mr. Deukmejian peaked when it counted-on election day.
This is what is so maddening about these polls. Yes, all show the Democrat presidential nominee, Sen. Messiah Barack Obama ahead. But, not by much by a long shot. And, we see in some of the latest polling according to the Drudge Report that shows Republican standard-bearer Sen. John "F--- You" McCain regaining some strength.
The vaunted Gallup poll shows Sen. "F--- You" McCain now within seven percent of Sen. Messiah Barack among registered voters, 50%-43%. But, among likely voters it is also closer with Sen. Messiah Barack leading Sen. "F--- You" McCain 50%-46%.
And the sometimes liked Zogby poll shows a four-point lead for Sen. Messiah Barack over Sen. "F--- You" McCain among likely voters.
What both show is that among likely voters, it is within the margin of error and essentially still a dead heat.
So, I would not take these polls to the bank.
If I were Sen. Messiah Barack, I would stop thinking about the cruise to the White House strategy. And for Sen. "F--- You" McCain, find a theme a day and talk about it. Tie everything into the campaign theme. Reform, Prosperity and Peace. And, to repeat your quote Sen. "F--- You" McCain, fight for it. Fight for what's right.


Pat Jenkins said...

good piece 64!!!

Rightwingsnarkle said...

Nate Silver's current projections show:

1. An Obama EV lead of 351 to 187
2. Popular vote going to Obama 52% to 46.6%
3. Obama win percentage (based on 10,000 simulated elections using aggregated state-level polling data) of 93.8% (i.e., Obama wins 9,380 of 10,000 simulated elections).

Nate's got a pretty good track record when it comes to this kind of stuff.

Tom the Redhunter said...

You may be right about there being a Bradley effect, but I wouldn't bank on it.

I remember 1996, in which Bob Dole was behind in the polls to President Clinton. Many conservatives were saying "don't believe the polls!" Alas, they turned out to be all too accurate.

Rightwingsnarkle said...

Ah, ha ha ha ha.

Obama leads McStain 53-29.

McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate.

Thanks, wingnuts, for being the ones to so willingly hammer the nails into the repubs' coffin.

DoorHold said...

Well, if Obama loses, I recommend he ask Hillary for advice on how to accept the unexpected graciously.

Freadom said...

New Gallup has Obama up only by 2.

In 1992 John Engler trailed incumbant Jim Blanchard big time in the polls. Repub. Engler won. Since that time I never put much stock in polls.