Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Exhaustive Polling Analysis

I know, polls, polls and more damn polls!
It really does not matter who one is for in this Death March of a campaign. There is pretty much a poll for everyone in this election cycle.
And yes, all polling is showing the Democrat presidential candidate, Sen. Messiah Barack Obama ahead of Republican presidential standard-bearer Sen. John "F--- You" McCain. And, they are really all over the place, but no doubt all showing Sen. Messiah Barack ahead.
Here is some exhaustive polling analysis from Elwyn Tobing of the American Thinker.
It takes a lot of reading but shows that there is still a great chance that Sen. "F--- You" McCain can pull the rabbit out of his hat and win this election.
Take a look at the Gallup polling data from the 2000 presidential election

Week Bush Gore
9/7/00 - 9/15/00 43 48
9/16/00 - 9/22/00 42 49
9/23/00 - 9/30/00 46 45
10/1/00 - 10/7/00 44 46
10/8/00 - 10/14/00 47 44
10/15/00 - 10/21/00 49 42
10/22/00 - 10/28/00 48 42
10/29/00 - 11/4/00 48 43
11/5/00 48 43
ELECTION RESULT 48 48

And what is the trend that you notice? That the opponent, Texas Gov. George W. Bush was ahead from the week of 10/14 to 11/04 and ended up essentially in a tie with then Vice-President Al Gore.
So, what happened?
One thing that many speculate is the last-minute revelation by a Democrat operative that Gov. Bush had a DWI conviction in the 1970s. While Gov. Bush handled that revelation as well as could be expected, no doubt some voters may have changed their minds at the very last minute.
Also, despite a tainted end of the Clinton presidency, there is the power of incumbency.
One other aspect to note.
The wild stock market fluctuations and the $700,000,000,000 banking bailout/rescue has a lot of voters anxious. Some are simply reacting to when they are called by pollsters and decide to participate. They could have just watched the news. Read a newspaper. Scanned the internet.
That helps the out candidate, Sen. Messiah Barack.
But, as the election gets closer, many people, the 20% of those who are swayable, may take a second look at essentially the incumbent. Now, Sen. "F--- You" McCain is hardly a Bush acolyte. He has been at many times a thorn in the side of the Bush administration. And his maverick streak may be something that a good amount of these 20 percenters will look at as little as the weekend before the election.
Bottom line.
There is hope that a good debate performance by Sen. "F--- You" McCain, the stock market making sustained gains, a possible (God forbid) terrorist attack helps the Republican standard-bearer. And, that Sen. Messiah Barack's clearly questionable allies and or acquaintances and lack of any substantive experience may make some people go the other way.
There are still three weeks as of this writing. And plenty of time to see another pendulum swing in the polls.

4 comments:

Rightwingsnarkle said...

There is hope that a...terrorist attack helps the Republican standard-bearer.

Wait, did you just say what I think you just said?

The elipses serve to clarify and focus your statement.

It seems you're hoping for a terrorist attack, and you're hoping for one for purely partisan political purposes.

Some innocent people would die, but you think that would be OK if it got McP.O.W. and Caribou Barbie elected, right?

Righty64 said...

I may have written that paragraph a little too quickly. No, of course I do not wish that a terrorist attack to happen for any reason. I want to elect the candidate that can best prevent that from happening. That is why I support Sen. McCain. If you have read this blog, and I know that you have, my first choice was Mitt Romney. And, no I do not think that having a President Obama will make this nation safer. I think that if St. Hillary were the Democrat nominee, I would not be as concerned. Sorry to have given the impression that I would wish a terror attack to help or hurt a candidate.

Rightwingsnarkle said...

Thanks for clarifying.

Of course I read your blog - religiously.

As for your favorite mormon, I don't see much of a future for him in politics.

He really went flat in the whole string of primaries, despite the amount of his own money that he tossed in.

Though, to be fair, he still has plenty more where that came from.

He was widely loathed during his single term as governor, and didn't accomplish anything. He was gonna get beat if he ran for re-election, so he turned tail and ran for prez instead.

Not too inspiring, but everybody else in the country got to see it, too, so there's that to thank him for.

No, I think he'll go back to making money. Watch Domino's (awful pizza) and Dunkin' Donuts (terrible coffee, and you have to really try to ruin coffee) both go public. That'll put some cash back in his pockets.

At least it'll keep him from bothering the rest of us again. Good riddance. Mormon's are freaking crazy. They make scientology sound believable.

Freadom said...

Of course, that tie in 2000 may also be attributed to all the dead people who voted. Are there any dead people who vote republican?