I love the early analysis of the House of Representative races that are now popping up.
Looking at this one from the Congressional Quarterly, not only does it come up with the Democrats keeping control of the House, but possibly gaining three more seats.
I would like to know what they are smoking and or drinking.
Of course they may end up right and people will think that the Democrats deserve to maintain their role as controlling the House. And, we are all enjoying the Hillary Clinton administration. Or is it the Rudy Giuliani administration?
You see, this is what is crazy about trying to figure these kind of things more than 13 months before the mid term elections.
One thing that this analysis does not take into account is that next year is the census. And the result of the census can easily give some states more seats and inevitably some less seats.
What the analysis is not taking into account is the overall mood of the voters.
When there is one party running the show as the Democrats do now, there is a natural push back. Only in 2002, as a result of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the war in Afghanistan did the Republicans actually gain seats in both the House and Senate.
But if the economy is not vastly improved, and or a sense that the president and the Democrats do not have a handle on foreign affairs or the perfect storm of both, there is no question that voters will punish the party in control of congress.
Oh, another thing is that the Democrats are in trouble at the state level. More than likely, the Dems will lose the governorship in New Jersey and Virginia. And quite possibly in New Jersey by a huge number.
That could be a disaster for the national Democrats and directly affect congressional elections.
And, another thing not figured is that Republicans are doing a much better job at recruiting candidates to run at the congressional level.
Finally, the Republican voter will be much more fired up in November, 2010 than Democrats. If the GOP does indeed win the two contested governor's races this year, they will have a big mo' going their way.
It is amusing analysis, but way too early to make the assumption that the Democrats will keep their House majority.
Come back in November, 2010 with that analysis, Congressional Quarterly.