A Very Interesting Statistic

As a stats nut (hey, one of the reasons I love baseball), I found this from the Weekly Standard blog to be very interesting:

2) From Gallup.com, “July Leader Lost in 6 of Last 9 Competitive U.S. Elections” by Lydia Saad
Take a gander at the graph:








So good news for McCain? Not exactly. As any stats-freak could tell you, a sample size of nine isn’t very big. Indeed, speaking purely statistically, it’s pretty much worthless. But it’s not bad news for McCain, and that in itself is something of a cause for celebration.
Yes, I know the graph is not large enough to read, but here are some nuggets:

1992 July 6-8 Bush 35%-28% Clinton -7% +5.5%

1988 July 8-10 Dukakis 47%-41% Bush -6% + 8%

1980 July 11-14 Reagan 37%-34% Reagan +3% +10%

1976 July 16-19 Carter 69%-29% Carter +29% +2%


It does go further back, but you will have to go to the the actual link http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/general/required_reading/ to read the rest.

What do I get out of this?

If things were as bad as the DDBMSM make it out to be in the United States, then Sen. Messiah Barack should have a Jimmy Carter-like lead. Proving that things are not all that bad. In 1980, when the economy was a real mess and the United States was dragged around the international arena, Jimmy Carter was still in striking distance of Ronald Reagan. George H. W. Bush was down by worse numbers than Sen. McCain is now and still managed a win. And of course the are the the last two elections.

People have not even come close to making up their minds. All that is happening now will be the narrative come after Labor Day, when people begin to look at the election in earnest. If the numbers hold or improve for Sen. John "F--- You" McCain, he should win. Sen. Messiah Barack is beginning to have a lot of his sheen get whacked around. And, while many defend him, he is running the risk of really alienating the blue collar Democrats into the arms of Sen. "F--- You" McCain.

Look the stats over and maybe you come to a different conclusion. I think this means that not only is John "F--- You" McCain in this but does have a chance to win.