Thursday, May 20, 2010

Interesting Cali GOP Polls

Hmm, the races for the Republican governor and senate nominations in California are getting interesting according to the latest polling data.
In the race for governor, the leader had been Meg Whitman, the eBay gal. And she was leading the Insurance Commissioner, Steve Poizner, by as much as 50% back in March.
But, Mr. Poizner has run a blistering campaign from her right and it appears to be paying off. Although Mr. Poizner is still behind in the polls, the two latest polls have him closing the gap.
Tucked in between the Survey USA poll and the Public Policy Institute poll is one by a Republican leaning pollster that shows Mrs. Whitman still ahead of Mr. Poizner by 17%. It may be that is an outlier. The latest PPIC poll shows Mrs. Whitman leading Mr. Poizner, 38% to 29%. That leaves an amazing 33% still undecided.
What it does show is that if Mrs. Whitman thought she could just convince candidates to leave the field and buy the Republican nod, she was mistaken with Mr. Poizner. And another aspect in Mr. Poizner's favor is that he has already won a state-wide race. To be the insurance commissioner.
Look for the end result to be very close.
In the senate race, it appears that Carly Fiorina is slightly ahead of Terrible Tom Campbell, 25% to 23% with Assemblyman Chuck DeVore trailing with 16% of the vote.
For Mrs. Fiorina, she is within the margins of error. For Mr. DeVore, it means that he better start kicking it into overdrive if he expects to pull off what can only be now an upset. For Terrible Tom, it shows that Republican voters are beginning to pay attention. And that can not be good news for Terrible Tom.
The Real Clear Politics average is showing Mrs. Fiorina getting within five points of Terrible Tom.
I would say that this race goes down to the wire as well. And, even as a DeVore supporter, it becomes more of a Terrible Tom/Carly race, it will put more pressure on Mr. DeVore to drop out.
Mr. DeVore has the solid conservative vote locked up. He needs to show moderate conservatives why they should vote for him. And how he will be a different candidate from Terrible Tom and Carly. It is the only way he gets up into the 20s and people start really looking at him as a viable nominee.
But the overall fact is the two races are tightening and no reason that they will not tighten more as election day nears on June 8.

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