Yea, yea, dismiss this poll at your own peril. Sure, it is commissioned by The Daily Kos people, but the fact is that Dede Scozzafava is going downhill and Doug Hoffman is surging.
The poll numbers are as follows:
Bill Owen (D) 33%
Doug Hoffman (C) 32%
Dede Scozzafava (R) 21%
Mr. Hoffman has gained nine points from the previous poll. Mr. Owens has gone down two and Mrs. Scozzafava has dropped nine.
Clearly local conservative Republican voters are turning to Mr. Hoffman. Remember, this is one of the rare conservative districts in New York state. The former congressman, John McHugh, has been the representative for 16 years and amassed a 73% American Conservative Union rating.
Mr. Owen may have hit his ceiling of natural, Democrat support. Mrs. Scozzafava is clearly losing Republicans. Conservatives, idependents and Republicans are flocking to Mr. Hoffman.
The lesson here is simple.
Do not let the New York state Republican party steamroll a loser candidate on the electorate. They need some serious reform in how a candidate is chosen when there is a special election. A two-tiered primary like here in California is what New Yorkers need. Yesterday.
GO DOUG, GO!
1 comment:
Sure, it is commissioned by The Daily Kos people...
Well, you probably know less about polling than you do about healthcare - your cluelessness knows no bounds.
In this instance, Dkos has simply paid a polling firm to conduct a survey that it's interested in. Dkos hasn't said, "Give us these results in a poll."
Dkos pays for lots of polling, because anybody interested in politics and policy is going to want to check the temperature on a regular basis. It's called looking for facts.
Though there are some organizations (Fox "news," perhaps) that will commission polls with the explicit understanding that it's looking for certain outcomes, that's a deceptive practice.
It's also possible to skew the poll in various ways - mostly by picking a less-than random sample, and by structuring the survey questions to bias the answers. Those are also deceptive practices.
More often, an organization (like a political campaign) will simply sit on (not release) the results of a poll if it's not to their liking.
Neither is the case with this poll, but that's probably too fine a detail for your coarsely-textured lizard brain.
In any event, the repub has already pulled out of the race, since she's been circling the drain for some time and has run out of money. Pat yourselves on the back for that one - the wild-eyed wingnut lunatic could very well beat the blue dog.
And if that happens?
Goodness knows I'm not fond of blue dogs. If the wingnut wins, is it a harbinger of more to come? You'd hope so, I'm sure.
Personally, I think that the more the wingnuts show themselves for what they are, the more marginalize themselves.
We'll see, eh?
If the wingnut wins, be sure to get your $25 worth when he's sworn in.
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