Sunday, October 24, 2010

What Is Going On With California Voters?

Judging by the three latest polls, somehow California voters are bucking the nationwide trend and it appears poised to elect two Democrat hacks for governor and senator.
In the governor's race, Jerry Brown has the lead over Meg Whitman according to the Los Angeles Times/USC poll, 52% to 39% with 9% undecided or do not know. Note that the number polled is rather high, 1,501 voters and out of that, 922 likely voters.
This poll also showed in 2003 that Gray Davis would be retained as governor and the recall election would be defeated. I would continue to question the validity of this particular poll.
A poll at Rasmussen reports is similar, showing Mr. Brown leading Mrs. Whitman, 48% to 42% with about 10% undecided or leaning another way.
One last poll from Survey USA shows Mr. Brown also leading Mrs. Whitman by a 47% to 40% margin with about 13% undecided or leaning another way.
When these three polls are averaged out, Mr. Brown, the Democrat, is leading Mrs. Whitman about 48% to 40% with 12% undecided.
So, what does that mean in the governor's race.
That Jerry Brown better not make decorating plans for the governor's office just yet.
Consider that there is still 12% of voters that are still undecided. This late in a race means that there is movement still to be had for either candidate. While it appears that would be going Mr. Brown's way, some of it maybe due to the so-called illegal alien maid controversy of Mrs. Whitman. Another is that the Democrats are getting more involved in the campaign. And that Mr. Brown is banking on his name and two-term tenure as California governor.
But in as Democrat a state as California has become, Mr. Brown being ahead only eight percent against an unknown a year ago is not all that great news.
One other thing about the polls at this point.
There nothing about those that have voted early by absentee ballot. And that may determine the outcome of this race. Think 1982 in the match up with Democrat Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley and Republican attorney general George Deukmejian.
In that election, all the polls showed Mr. Bradley with a rather large lead. Come election day and whoops! Mr. Deukmejian wins by about 50,000 votes.
Because Republicans took advantage of the then new way to vote. By mail and early. Although the link continues the canard of the so-called "Bradley effect", the real reason Mr. Bradley lost is the push for people on the Republican side to vote absentee.
It could be happening here and that is not being played out in polling.
The race for the senate is similar to the governor's match up.
Veteran Democrat troll Sen. Ma'am Boxer is leading another Republican unknown, Carly Fiorina but those numbers are closer for the GOP.
Let us look at that Los Angeles Times/USC poll again in this race. It shows Sen. Ma'am Boxer leading Mrs. Fiorina, 50% to 42% with about eight percent undecided or do not know.
In the Survey USA poll, it shows a much closer race with Sen. Ma'am Boxer leading Mrs. Fiorina, 46% to 44% with about 10% undecided or do not know.
And there is the Rasmussen poll that also shows Sen. Ma'am Boxer with a two-point advantage over Mrs. Fiorina, 48% to 46% with about six percent undecided or do not know.
Average this out and Sen. Ma'am Boxer has a narrower 48% to 44% lead over Mrs. Fiorina.
Why Sen. Ma'am Boxer has an advantage is simple. She is the incumbent. And has name recognition. Yet again, an unknown named Carly Fiorina is within striking distance this late in the game.
That says something.
That while it is possible California will vote two Democrats as governor and senator, they are still looking seriously at the Republican candidates. And that there is an unknown about how down-ticket voting may tip the balance. There are at the very least five Democrat congressional seats up for Republicans to pick off. That can translate into how people vote for governor and senate.
I write this now with urgency to fellow conservatives and Republicans.
The race in California is no where near out of reach. It is within reach. We need to focus on getting Mrs. Fiorina in the senate and Mrs. Whitman in the governor's office in Sacramento. And we need to focus on the congressional seats as possible pickups. As well as state assembly and senate seats.
This is no time to wallow in poll numbers. Look at the averages. They are still within reach.
We California voters are a dyslexic bunch. We vote for Democrats yet want Republican governance. Time to make both trains meet at the station.

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