Monday, January 09, 2012

So, Who Will Come In Second In New Hampshire?

OK, I will make the bold prediction that Mitt Romney will win the New Hampshire Republican primary.
So the real question is two-fold.
First, how many votes will Mr. Romney get.
Second is who will finish second and will it be close or not.
Lets take what I believe will be the percentage of votes Mr. Romney gets. I think that Mr. Romney will get 45% of the vote.
The disappointment for Team Romney will be two-fold.
First, that they will not break 50%. It would mean that there would be a run away for Mr. Romney and no one would really be able to stop him.
Second it will boost whoever finishes second and the distance between those votes.
So, here is my fearless prediction on how the percentage of votes will breakdown tomorrow night.

Mitt Romney: 45%
Rick Santorum: 24%
Jon Huntsman, Jr: 15%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
Rick Perry: 5%
The Rest: 2%

Ah, see who finishes second?
OK, maybe if you look at the results from Dixville Notch, you might think that I am off on second place.
But hang with me on this.
Sure, Rick Santorum is taking the beating now that he had his strong finish in Iowa. It will not be enough to win in Mr. Romney's neighborhood. But it makes him one to beginning to be taken seriously.
And judging by the crowds Mr. Santorum has been drawing, it is safe to say that he will be in the top three no matter what.
The huge loser, as he has been this campaign is Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Sure, I believe that he will end up third, but all the time and effort that he put into New Hampshire will make him this political season's Rudy Giuliani. All the rage of the Washington Beltway and the elites but no traction in the mind of the electorate.
And Newt Gingrich will not fare well here either. But he was not supposed to either. My guess is that he is making his stand along with Rick Perry in South Carolina.
If Mr. Santorum does indeed finish second, and Mr. Romney does not break 50%, then by default he will be the one that conservative Republicans will begin to look to as the primary-no pun intended-opponent to Mr. Romney.
It should be a very interesting night tomorrow in New Hampshire.
And the race will continue no matter what.

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