Friday, January 20, 2012

My Prediction For South Carolina

Tomorrow, well actually almost today as I write this, the good voters of South Carolina will go to the polls and decide who they like in the Republican primary for president.
So, of course I will offer my fearless prediction.
It is as follows:

Mitt Romney: 30%
Newt Gingrich: 29%
Rick Santorum: 23%
Ron Paul: 15%
Other: 3%

This does take into account the fact that Newt Gingrich is really surging in So Carolina. And I think that this is not a place for the Ron Paul breakthrough.
If Mr. Gingrich does not win this one, how can he seriously keep it up through the remaining contests? I do not get how a fourth place finish in Iowa, a fifth place finish in New Hampshire and a possible loss in So Carolina and yet Mr. Gingrich can say he will be the nominee.
At some point, Florida becomes the place where either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich becomes the so-called conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.
It will be interesting to see who Gov. Rick Scott in Florida endorses. By all accounts, as a former businessman himself, he tacitly will endorse Mr. Romney. And at some point may formally do so.
Despite a lot of nervous nellies in the Republican party, So Carolina does not end the primary season. It is just warming up. And now it is to see if Mr. Romney will be facing a rejuvenated Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Santorum in future races.

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