Sunday, September 30, 2012

OK, Are You Really Gonna Believe THIS Poll?!

The Columbus Dispatch newspaper released their latest poll of Ohio voters and it is not good for Mitt Romney.
According to this poll, conducted from September 19 to September 29 shows the Worthless Leader, President Obama, with a 51% to 42% advantage over the Republican candidate.
OK, on the surface so far, so good. It is very possible after all.
But here is something to look at very carefully in this poll.
It seems like a long period of time to conduct a poll, doesn't it?
Why yes it does, especially when you are conducting it by. . .snail mail!
And it is a random computer that picks alleged voters. Thus, strike two on why this poll is especially suspect.
In the linked article, it states that 43% of Democrats returned the poll forms while only 35% of Republicans did so. Then there are 20% that declined to state or are independent.
How can this be a serious poll?
How many people got this poll and did NOT respond? How many just threw it away? Where is any kind of real breakdown other than people who took the time to respond?
In most polls today, they are conducted by phone. But one of the complaints is who are the pollsters calling. Land-lines, cell phones? Land-lines only? Cell phones only?
But a mail in poll, that just seems a little much this late in the game. And there does not seem to be a screening process other than getting 1,662 people to respond.
The screening process is very important because it is how to tell who is seriously paying attention and who is actually going to vote in this election.
And most serious polling at this late stage is of at the very least registered voters but mostly likely voters.
It is why the numbers are really all over the place everywhere.
No question, the Worthless Leader, President Obama, is probably ahead at this point. I am thinking about four to five percent. And I look at the Real Clear Politics national average and the Worthless Leader, President Obama is up by 4.1%. And that is the margin of error.
Color me not all that impressed.
And even less impressed by this latest Ohio poll.
However, this poll unlike many others shows independent voters split, 43-43 for either candidate.
Most polls in counting independents show strong leads for Mr. Romney and solid Republican support.
Thus again, how is this poll so seemingly wrong?
And another thing to add to the deep suspicions of these pro-Obama polls.
The significant drop in Democrat registration not only in Ohio, but all the so-called swing states. And interesting little blurb here at Powerline blog points this inconsistency out. If the Worthless Leader all that, why are Democrats more than Republicans dropping off the voter rolls?
And yet, according to a poll conducted by snail mail, with registered Democrats dropping 490,000 off the rolls, and decline to state voters putting the candidates even, the Worthless Leader is up nine points?! It is because it is unfrickinbelievable!

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