Monday, September 10, 2012

This Is NOT Time To Panic On The GOP Side

OMG! Did you see the latest polls since the Democrat National Convention?
Why, why, the Dear Leader, President Obama, he, he has gotten a. . .bounce and is now ahead of GOP nominee Mitt Romney.
It is September, 10th! What do we do! Election Day is 56 days away! OMG! We are gonna lose folks!
A wee bit of satire in the previous three graphs. But there are those who are panicking that this is over and because the Dear Leader, President Obama, make that former President Clinton, had a great convention, and there is a bounce why it is insurmountable because, well because the voters minds are totally made up.
Uh, not really folks.
The occasional primer is good here.
In the United States, there are roughly 40% of the voting public that will vote for a Democrat no matter what. These are the hardcore partisans. And they are spread out across this Great Land.
As there are 40% that will vote for a Democrat no matter what, there are about the same number that will vote for a Republican no matter what. Again, these are the hardcore partisans and also spread all across the Great Land.
So, what about the 20% left?
They are the ones these campaigns are going after. And in this election, about 10% are iffy this late in the game. Maybe even higher than that.
So why the panic?
Well, here is some of the latest polling over at Real Clear Politics. Yes, all show the Dear Leader, President Obama, ahead of Mr. Romney. When you cumulate and average it out, it is by a rip-roaring 2.9%, essentially within the margin of error.
And guess what?
Four years ago today, one GOP nominee, Sen. John "F--- You" McCain was ahead in the RCP average. And the margin? A mere 2.2%.  Again, within the margin of error. Sen. "F--- You" McCain's lead from his post convention bounce was already evaporating.
Which why I do not get the hand-wringing from some on our side,
I would also point to this from the Team Romney in-house pollster, Neil Newhouse. I think that he is correct.
So why did the Dear Leader, President Obama, get a bit more of a boost from his convention over Mr. Romney?
Four words. Well, two for the masses.
William Jefferson Blythe Clinton, aka, Bill Clinton.
No doubt that it was the former president's speech at the DNC confab in Charlotte last Wednesday night that brought the house down. In fact, many have commented how weak and underwhelming the Dear Leader, President Obama's speech was in comparison.
So, now that the abysmal job numbers from August have been released showing a minimal decrease of unemployment from 8.3% to 8.1%, it is the reason that not even the Obamawhore media can cover-up.
That over 400,000 people who have been unemployed have simply given up looking for work.
No matter how anyone spins it, it is really lousy.
And that along with the dismal economy, the massive deficit and debt the federal movement is running up, states and cities on the financial brink, it is a recipe for electoral disaster.
Which leads to this.
Why isn't Mitt Romney up say about 20% over the Dear Leader?
I refer you to the seventh paragraph about the electorate.
Even in two landslides for Ronald Reagan, the Democrat candidates manged 41% of the popular vote.
So yes, it is close, but not anywhere near time to push the panic buttons.
There are still three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate. There is still time for events to change the course of the election for a while.
One thing that the Republican candidate has this time around that they did not in 2008.
A boatload of cash.
And in way that is what should help tremendously. Most analysts believe that the Democrats are running in the red or close to it. And that means either they get a lot of help from the outside groups or they will not be able to keep up in October and up to election day. Also, the enthusiasm is stronger on the GOP side than the Democrat side. That is not deniable, yet the Obamawhore media is doing all it can to make that a meme.
Bottom line is this.
Stop reading too much in these post-convention polls. By the end of this week, it will be back to a horse race and that makes it advantage Romney.

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