Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Really Depressing Economic News

Although I like to think of myself as an optimist, this story about the potential of the unemployment rate rising to a staggering 12% is enough to make me rethink what will happen in terms of the economy.
There is a lot of conflicting information about whether the economy is in recovery or the recession is deepening.
One thing that is of great concern is the fall of the dollar. And the rise of the price of gold and other precious metals. It is a bleak reminder of the heydays of the wondrous late 1970s economy. Oh, and during that period, inflation rose and interest rates were the highest in many years.
But let us delve deeper into what David Rosenberg says.
What is really striking is taking number 12 first.
When the unemployment rate peaked long after given recessions ended. The last recession ended in November, 2001. But the unemployment rate peaked at 6.8% in June, 2003. More than a year and a half after the recession ended.
With the current unemployment rate at 10.2% according to the Labor Department, if the economy is in recovery, then the peak of unemployment is no where near its peak. Thus the analysis of Mr. Rosenberg may be frighteningly correct.
And here is something for you to chew on:

A record 5.6 million people have been unemployed for at least six months (this number rarely gets above two million in a normal downturn) which is nearly a 36% share of the jobless ranks (again, this rarely gets above 20%).

And to cleanse the palate even more, the median (18.7 weeks) and average (26.9 weeks) duration of unemployment have risen to all-time highs.
But hey, since this is not an uplifting post, this ought to be one to knock your socks off:

The longer it takes for these folks to find employment (and now they can go on the government benefit list for up to two years) the more difficult it is going to be to retrain them in the future when labor demand does begin to pick up.

And yet the Dear Leader, President Obama, somehow thinks nationalizing one-sixth of the economy in his health-care delivery scam will somehow cure all. That extending unemployment insurance benefits will somehow ease the pain of not being able to find a job. That an abject failure of a $787,000,0000,000 so-called economic "stimulus" plan should be made with a "Stimulus 2.0".
It is clear now to the American people that this is not a garden-variety recession we are in. I will just write it. We are on the precipice of a depression. And the American people want something more than hope and change. They want a plan that gets the government the hell out of the way and gets money out there to the people. And those in the private sector that take real economic risks and produce real jobs.
One should think that the Dear Leader, President Obama, would stop dithering about the economy, put the ambitious plans on hold and get a grip on what really ails the United States. The lack of economic growth and jobs.
Hope and Change needs to be replaced with J O B S.

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