Well, tomorrow at this time the 2009 election campaign will be over and we will know a lot of things. And, since Mr. Campaign Spot, Jim Geraghty, has offered his thoughts on tomorrow, I will do the same.
New York state 23rd Congressional District:
This is the race that everyone is watching. It is without a doubt the Battle Royale for the heart of the Republican party. And a lesson in fecklessness by a RINO. Now that alleged Republican Dede Scozzafava pulled out and, without no surprise, endorsed the Democrat, Bill Owens. The winner will be the one the GOP should have hand-picked, Doug Hoffman. Mr. Hoffman is running on the Conservative party banner. The result:
Hoffman (C) 56%
Owens (D) 35%
Scozzafava (RINO) 8%*
* Because Mrs. Scozzafava's name will still be on the ballot, some people will vote for her.
California 10th Congressional District:
This is the most under reported story of the campaign season. Another special election because the Dear Leader, President Obama, picked the incumbent congressman Ellen Tauscher, for an assistant Secretary of State position. The Democrats nominated a well-known office-climber, John Garamendi and the Republicans political novice David Harmer. This should be a no-brainer for the Democrats. But, Mr. Garamendi has ran a lackluster campaign and Mr. Harmer has come on strong. Strong enough to win? Probably not. But, this district went 65% for Mrs. Tauscher in the last election and the Dear Leader, President Obama, by similar numbers. But, turnout and enthusiasm is everything. The Republicans have it and the Democrats do not. Here is the prediction:
Garamendi (D) 52%
Harmer (R) 47%
Scattered 1%
Sorry, I am not going to bet the farm that Mr. Harmer will pull it off. But if he does, this is the upset of the night.
New Jersey 2009 Governor:
This has been an ugly race and is complicated by a fifth-columnist "independent" candidate that is now exposed as a Democrat shill. But, nonetheless, it has been thisclose. Tomorrow it will be a different story. The Democrat incumbent is John Corzine, who has bought a senate seat and when bored with that, a governor's mansion. He is one of the most unpopular governor's in the United States. The fact that he is still in this race with Republican Chris Christie is a testament to a never-ending bank roll and the positive of negative campaigning. So-called "independent" Chris Daggett is making life difficult for Mr. Christie, but now that Democrats have been caught making robocalls for Mr. Daggett, it should plunge whatever support he had. An ugly campaign will end with a surprise. My prediction:
Christie (R) 45%
Corzine (D) 39%
Daggett (I) 10%
Scattered 6%
Virginia 2009 Governor:
All that is to speculate about this race is the margin that Republican nominee Bob McDonnell will defeat Democrat Creigh Deeds by. This will be a humiliating defeat for the Democrats as they have worked really hard to make the Commonwealth a purple swing state. The voters elected two consecutive Democrat governors, Mark Warner and incumbent Tim Kaine. There are two Democrat senators, Mr. Warner and Jim Webb. But, Mr. Kaine has been MIA since becoming the Democrat National Committee chair and the Democrats' best candidate to keep the governor's office in Democrat hands, Mr. Deeds, has ran an abysmal campaign. And, Mr Geraghty lives in Virginia and sees big gains for the Republicans across the board. And, critically, in the lower House of Delagates. For governor, the prediction is:
McDonnell (R) 58%
Deeds (D) 40%
Scattered 2%
So, I think that it is going to be a good night for the Republicans. The Democrats seem to be preparing for a bad showing tomorrow night by spinning these races as local races and local issues. And there is a modicum of truth in that. But with a sputtering economy and doubts that the powers in Washington have a clue, this is a chance for voters to send a message.
I think that the message will be for Washington to slow down and not go off a cliff on radical changes to health care delivery, crap and trade and other legislation that the Democrat left has pent up for all these years.
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