Sunday, October 15, 2006

Top Five Reasons Republicans Will Keep The Congress

Yes, you read it right, the Republicans will keep control of both houses of congress. There are five large reasons, but I will concede now that they will lose a few seats, but there will not be a Democrat tidal wave and some of the so-called races are not really races at all.
Here are the top-five reasons:
1) Turnout. I believe that Republican voters are smart enough to see that the MSM has made what amounts to a last stand as far as their relevancy is concerned. They really do believe that Democrats will turn out in droves and take over by possible substantial margins the House and the Senate. There is no evidence of this, even the most partisan MSM analyst will admit this. Yes, Democrats are more enthusiastic about their candidates than Republicans. But, because the MSM is trying to channel this election in their favor, many will stay home, thinking it is in the bag. But, because of the superior Republican get out the vote-aka GOTV-planning and the low expectations, they will get the maximum of Republican voters out and stop any potential bleeding. One bit of history. Republican voters tend to vote in midterm elections, Democrats do not.
2) Money. The Republicans have more money in the bank and will use it wisely where they will get the most bang for the buck. Also, that effort will be made in the 72 hour GOTV marathon that will get the most Republican voters to the polls.
3) National Security. Yes, there have been a few polls that say the voters trust the Democrats more than the Republicans, but that will not correlate come election day. Right now, they have no plan for Iraq, North Korea, Iran or any other hot spot. Because, as you will see in reason four, polling is being done intentionally overusing Democrat leaning voters. Try asking real independent voters and Republicans.
4) Lying Polls. The MSM is most transparent in this area. In almost any given poll, the pollsters are polling more Democrats than Republicans, thus skewing any poll to make them look good and the Republicans look bad. Also, they are relying on registered voters over likely voters. Why? Because, registered voters favor Democrats because more people in many parts of the country are registered Democrats. But, likely voters favor Republicans because Republicans actually vote. Why was Rassmussen closest to the exact election results in 2004? Because he used likely voters to sample Too bad the MSM won't do that.
5) There is no realignment in this election. Michael Barone in the latest US News and Report ( said that even if the Democrats do indeed take one or both houses of congress, it will be by a slim margin. So, what may happen is that voters will send a message to the Republicans and it will be a slight Democratic majority at worst. But, Republican voters will be motivated to see that does not happen.
We know that the next three weeks will try to make this a redeux of 1994, but it won't happen.
Republican party chairman Ken Mehlman said it best. The Democrats were not prepared for the 1994 Republican onslaught that was a realignment election. This year, the Republicans are, and that might be in the words of Karl Rove, the October Surprise.

No comments: