Hey, it is the beginning of a new year, my stomach virus is getting better and this is as good a time as any to take the political crystal ball and see what the 2010 midterm elections will look like here in the once Golden State.
Now as a life-long Californian, I realize this is a Democrat state now. When I was growing up in the 1970s and 80s, it was a leaning Republican state. But, that is not the case any more.
Whoops! I think that is going to change here this time around.
For a state that is so Democrat-leaning, it is amazing that they can not find a candidate for governor under 65.
The front runner is one-time governor and current Attorney General, Edmund "Jerry" Brown, Jr. And at the moment, he is the only serious candidate on the Democrat side. Yes, there are rumblings that current United States senator, Dianne Feinstein, may take a run. But do not count on it. Oh, Mr. Brown is 71 as he dips his toe in the Democrat gubernatorial waters. And Sen. Feinstein? She is a spry 76 years old.
To me, it is a sign that the California Democrat party has no strength to have to depend on retreads like Mr. Brown, who became governor in 1974 after Ronald Reagan's successful two-terms. Or Sen. Feinstein, who owes her political career to the idiot former San Francisco supervisor Dan White. Remember him? He murdered fellow supervisor Harvey Milk and then-mayor George Moscone in 1978. Mrs. Feinstein became mayor of San Francisco as she was the President of the Board of Supervisors.
These are retreads who are still milking the government teat. Mr. Brown as state Attorney General and Sen. Feinstein in Washington.
The Republicans on the other hand have three candidates in the running for governor.
They are former E-Bay Chair, Meg Whitman, former congressman Tom Campbell and current Insurance Commissioner, Steve Poizner.
Mrs. Whitman is a political novice and has some issues about her lack of voting in previous elections. Also, it is not real clear if she is another Benedict Arnold Republican or Ronald Reagan Republican.
No question. Mr. Campbell is a Benedict Arnold Republican. After all, he was one of Gov. Benedict Arnold's leading economic advisers until recently. Mr. Campbell has defended the tax-hikes that Gov. Benedict Arnold pursued during his abysmal tenure. A very bad move and probably makes him the odd-man out in this race.
That leaves the Insurance Commissioner, Mr. Poizner. Mr. Poizner appears to be the most conservative of the three. He has garnered a lot of support from the conservative wing of the state GOP. He has had a good record as Insurance Commissioner.
My prediction, not an endorsement, is that Mr. Poizner will be the Republican nominee. And that Mr. Brown will lead the Democrats. And that Mr. Poizner will be the next governor of California.
And that will have an effect when it comes down to who will be in control of the California legislature.
This will be the first election in which all the Assembly and State Senate legislative boundaries will be drawn by an independent commission. If they follow what they are supposed to do, the Democrat-heavy boundaries we have had for most of my life will be a thing of the past. There will be more competitive districts for both parties.
Currently, the Democrats have 50 seats to the Republicans 29 with one independent in the lower house, the Assembly. My prediction for that is because of the legislative lines being more competitive and the mood of the electorate, the Republicans will gain eight seats here. That will make the Assembly a 43-37 Democrat edge.
In the State Senate, the Democrats currently have 25 seats to the Republicans 14 and one vacancy. Using the same criteria as used in the Assembly races, the Republicans pick up three seats. The Democrats will still be ahead, 23-17.
What this 2010 election will do is turn California from solid blue Democrat to purple leaning Republican.
There is no reason to believe that somehow, the California electorate will buck a clear national trend. I do not see the California electorate turning to a Democrat retread to cure the state's numerous problems. After all, it was during Mr. Brown's tenure that in 1978, California voters passed Proposition 13, the property tax measure that saved thousands of Californians homes.
For once, the Republican party is going to have a good election result here in California. Hopefully, with a Republican governor and a more Republican-leaning legislature, there can be some real reforms to help California out of it morass.
After all, a new year brings new hope. And that, with a serious plan, the California Republicans will make some serious noise in 2010.
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