Obama Hurts McCain

While surfing the net and looking at the mind-numbing analysis of the Iowa caucus results, my theory is that the smashing win in the Democrat caucus by Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) hurts Sen. John "F--- You" McCain in New Hampshire.
The reason is that New Hampshire is an open primary state. That means independents can vote in any party primary they want.
In 2000, it is how Sen. "F--- You" McCain won a crushing victory over then Gov. George W. Bush in the Republican primary. Gov. Bush won Republican voters in that primary. The same in Michigan. And in Virginia. And, Sen. "F--- You" McCain is trying the same pony once again, appealing to independents because he has little if any support in the Republican base.
But, that Obama win last night has put the chances of a repeat in 2008 in danger.
For the Democrats, it was a 2-1 participation in the caucus. Roughly about 239,000 for the Dems and about 103,000 for the Republicans. Both are very large increases in participation.
But, at least in Iowa, the momentum was with the Democrat candidates. Even Sen. Hilary Clinton, who came in an underwhelming third.
Thus, the independent voter in New Hampshire may feel much more inclined to influence the outcome of the Democrat primary rather than go for yesterday's news, Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
More than likely, if the New Hampshire independents go into the Democrat booth, the beneficiary of that will be former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who did suffer a serious setback last night in Iowa. There are no guarantees, but this one. It will not be the Rev. Mike Huckabee.
It is very possible that with less independent voters participating, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson could break through with a second place finish, ahead of his old senate colleague, "F--- You" McCain. The Rev. Mike might not even finish in the top four, possibly fifth place.
The hard part for insurgents like the Rev. Mike and Sen. "F--- You" McCain is that as the season moves on, the independents will have less say in primaries and caucuses. That means the more that actual Republicans get to vote, the two look less likely to win the nomination.
The other fascinating aspect of the Iowa outcome is that it is even clearer that there is something going on with the Rev. Mike and Sen. "F--- You" McCain. As I noted in an earlier post, they are clearly tag teaming to try to derail Mr. Romney, Mr. Thompson and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani. It looks more and more that way.
But, it may not work. And in a strange way, Republicans opposed to both may have Sen. Obama to thank for that.