For some inexplicable reason, the Dinosaur, Drive-By, Mainstream Media all but ignored the fact that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had a commanding victory in yesterday's Nevada Republican caucus. I suppose a win in the South Carolina Republican primary by Sen. John "F--- You" McCain is more on the radar of the DDBMSM, but I will lay out the case that Nevada was much more important than South Carolina.
Firstly, it is safe to say that Nevada has become a "battleground" state, marginally Republican but trending Democrat. Look at the presidential results in 2000 and 2004 in Nevada. President Bush has done no better than 50% in each election while former Vice-President Al Gore got 46% in 2000 and Sen. John Kerry got 48% in 2004. Clearly, the trend is leaning towards the Democrats.
In South Carolina, it is a very safe, Republican state. President Bush won in 2000 and 2004 with 57% and 58% of the vote, respecivly. Thus, even in this election year South Carolina should be a very safe Republican state.
While Sen. "F--- You" McCain spent a lot of time and effort to win a state that will be hospitable territory should he be the Republican presidential nominee, he ignored a state that he will need to win if he is to keep the red states in line this election.
Mr. Romney took a calculated risk in giving up spending more time in South Carolina and finished fourth behind former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson. But, the strategy of going to Nevada and making the largest win of the campaign season in both political parties may prove to be much more strategic in keeping a Democrat-trending state in the Republican column.
Sometimes in a death march of an election season that this has become, candidates have to play on the fly and look at areas that will be to that candidate's advantage. While the DDBMSM likes to play up South Carolina as a pretty accurate barometer of who the Republican presidential nominee will be, this year may prove that barometer wrong.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain spent a lot of time to get 32% of the vote in a primary in a state that is the Republican heartland. By spending no time in Nevada, he ceded the turf to Mr. Romney and he took the opening and cruised to victory with 51% of the caucus vote. And, it is in a state that will be a battleground for both parties, like it or not.
Also, it is very important to note that Nevada had more delegates at stake than in South Carolina. Thus, with Mr. Romney's crushing win, he took the lion's share of delegates and more momentum among Republican voters and that is important because as the death march primary season continues on to Super Duper Tuesday, February 5, the primaries/caucuses become closed to Democrats and Republicans, no independents. That means that getting delegates is even more important than winning any given state. And there, Mr. Romney has shown that he has a huge advantage over Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
Thus, in the grand scheme of things, Mr. Romney's Nevada caucus victory may in the end prove to be more important than Sen. "F--- You" McCain's win in South Carolina. And the results in November may prove that even more.
1 comment:
well said and great assessment 64. mccain does have the disadvantage of having to compete in closed primaries from here on out. i will stick to my presumption that he can not woo these folks.. (me included)
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