I will tip my hat to Sen. John "F--- You" McCain in his win in the Florida Republican primary tonight. A win is a win. He is now, for all intents and purposes the Republican front runner. But nowhere near the nominee in waiting.
The win tonight was only by 5 percentage points. Not anywhere near a dispatching landslide, but he did knock out Rudy Giuliani. Or, maybe Mayor Rudy knocked himself out with the "I can't win anywhere else, why not waste $45 on Florida" strategy. Anyway, Mitt Romney is now the insurgent, conservative candidate. After Mayor Rudy endorses Sen. "F--- You" McCain, he will get New York and New Jersey for sure in next weeks Super Duper Tuesday. And both are winner take all states.
Throw in Arizona, Sen. "F--- You" McCain's home state, a winner take all caucus and he will more than likely add 206 delegates. On Super Duper Tuesday, 1081 are at stake. Right now, Sen. "F--- You" McCain has 93.
But, only eight of next Tuesday's primaries are closed to non-Republicans and seven are winner take all. So, Sen. "F--- You" McCain will not have the nomination sewn up by a long shot.
What changed tonight is that now, Mitt Romney is the insurgent, conservative with any chance of winning. Of the three left standing, both Sen. "F--- You" McCain and the Rev. Mike are out of money. Neither can compete in the 20 states next Tuesday. Only Mr. Romney can. But, he will need to be willing to put a lot of his own cash to do that. And, he will not win everywhere. He can come in second in a lot and rack up some delegates.
As I see it, Mr. Romney will win for sure in Massachusetts, Utah, Alaska, North Dakota, and Montana. That is 134 delegates, and only Utah is a winner-take-all state. Possible competitive states are Oklahoma, a closed primary, Missouri, a winner-take-all, Colorado, a closed primary, Delaware, a closed primary.
So, what about the big prize, California?
This is a tough one. This time, the delegates are going to be by congressional district. And, there are 55 districts in California. Republicans only have 20. More than likely, they would all be inclined to vote for Romney. The rest are up for grabs. The fact is that Sen. "F--- You" McCain and Mr. Romney could end up basically splitting the state and delegates. That would be the best case scenario for Mr. Romney.
Oh, what about the Rev. Mike?
Outside of Arkansas, and maybe Tennessee, I do not see him being able to compete seriously anywhere else. If Sen. "F--- You" McCain is out of cash, the Rev. Mike need to pray really hard for a cash infusion to be even competitive in any other state.
Thus, it has come down to a two-man race. McCain and Romney. The Rev. Mike is sticking around to see if he can cause trouble, but with a McCain win tonight it hurts the Rev. Mike. There is no real reason to keep voting for the Rev. Mike. Most of his voters will probably, but not in droves, go to Mr. Romney.
So, Sen. "F--- You" McCain can celebrate tonight. And he will have a large endorsement from Mayor Rudy. But this is nowhere near over. And Mr. Romney can still take this all the way to St. Paul and he should.
1 comment:
ever the optimist 64. a good assessment... if you were advising mitt where would you tell him to concentrate his resources? or better yet what do you think could be a swing state?
Post a Comment