And The REAL Winners Are. . .

OK, OK, I will congratulate the Rev. Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas for a victory in tonight's Iowa caucus. The Rev. Mike had the momentum and a reservoir of support from evangelical Christians that no one could seriously break and that sums up his win.
Some things to note.
Evangelical Christians make up a disproportionate number, roughly 40% of registered Republican voters. While they were not monolithic in their voting, the majority went with the Rev. Mike.
Look at the county-by-county results http://data,desmoinesregister.com/election08/caucus/rawgopcounties.ph, and you will see that Polk County is where the Rev. Mike got a huge amount of his 34% statewide vote. It is the county where the capital and largest city, Des Moines, is located. The Rev. Mike got a lot of favorable coverage there and it translated. It is the perfect area for a word-of-mouth campaign to get a good buzz.
Having said all of that, a win is a win and the Rev. Mike deserves his moment in the sun. And, it will be a very brief one as there is another caucus Saturday in Wyoming and then New Hampshire. Both are going to be more secular and tougher for the Rev. Mike to crack.
My man Mitt did finish a respectable second and has nothing to be ashamed about. Yes, he probably spent a lot of time in Iowa, but he was following a conventional wisdom. And, it appears that this maybe an election in which neither party will be able to follow conventional wisdom and that leads to the Democrats.
At least here, I got it right.
Sen. Barack Obama ended up easily winning the Iowa Democrat Caucus. The real battle is for second place and at the time of this posting, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards has a one point lead on Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-NY), 30-29%. While Sen. Obama won cruisingly with 38 percent of the "vote".
Since Democrats do not cast ballots as the Republicans, it is by a percentage of people who stood in the candidate's area.
At least here it is clear. Sen. Clinton ain't gonna get that coronation. And, she maybe badly damaged as she staggers into New Hampshire. And, even though he will have finished second, give credit to Mr. Edwards. This at least gets him into New Hampshire. He may not win there, but Mr. Edwards could have another second place finish, and it could be a rerun of tonight's result. It can be much more of a death blow to Sen. Clinton than any of the Republican candidates.
After all, Sen. Clinton has had a commanding lead in the Real Clear Politics http://realclearpolitics.com polling average, hovering in the 40s. If Sen. Clinton has another disappointing third place finish, then it appears that the Democrats are really serious about presenting their best candidate and win the White House. One thing about Sen. Obama, like him or not, his negatives are no where near Sen. Clinton's. It is possible that is what is weighing on Democrat voters minds.
So, what to make of this, the first time in this long death march to November?
The Republican race is truly a wide open race. While the Rev. Mike will get a buzz out of the win tonight, it will not be nearly enough for long term viability. He has to win a primary in which real people vote, not caucus. That is a tougher road. Mitt Romney is very much still in this race and may not win New Hampshire, but he will be in for the long haul. Fred Thompson is very much alive and will not bow out anytime soon. Even Sen. John "F--- You" McCain is looking up. Then there is, lurking in the shadows Rudy Giuliani. Do not count him out at all.
For the Democrats, this may be the beginning of the end of the Clinton comeback. When you have as high of negatives as she does, other candidates start to look better. And leading that group is Sen. Obama. Sen. Obama is positive, has a compelling story and just seems to connect with Democrat voters in a real way that everyone knows Sen. Clinton and to a lesser extent Mr. Edwards does not.
This is going to be an interesting race to the finish for both parties and this election takes on more of an importance than ever.