As I am in the mood the be the seer of 2008, I am extending my all-seeingness? to tomorrow night's Iowa caucus and I will be a seer for both the Democrat and Republican candidates.
REPUBLICANS
Mitt Romney 31%
Fred Thompson 22%
Mike Huckabee 19%
John McCain 10%
Ron Paul 6%
Rudy Giuliani 3%
Tom Tancredo (Withdrew) 1%
Sam Brownback (Withdrew) 1%
Tommy Thompson (Withdrew) 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
DEMOCRATS
1st Round
Barack Obama 25%
John Edwards 24%
Hilary Clinton 22%
Joe Biden 11%
Chris Dodd 9%
Bill Richardson 4%
Dennis Kucinich 3%
Mike Gravel 1%
2nd Round
Sen. Obama 35%
Sen. Clinton 34%
Mr. Edwards 29%
Because the Democrat caucus is complicated, the "2nd Round" means that once the candidates that do not meet the 15% viability requirement, those that favor the candidates that do can go on and support their second candidate. That will still help Sen. Obama most of all.
Thus, the victors of this beginning of the end of the caucus/primary death march are for the Democrats, Barack Obama and for the Republicans, Mitt Romney.
The reason will be the big mo' and the two winners will have it.
And what about those that do not win?
Well, for the Democrats in could be the end of the road for John Edwards. Look for Mr. Edwards to continue at least to New Hampshire and see where he finishes in an actual primary vote. For Sen Clinton, she has to win in New Hampshire next week or her general election viability will come into serious question. She already has some of the highest negative ratings in national polling data. And for Sen. Obama, who will win Iowa, he will have a better shot at winning in New Hampshire and a full head of steam heading to South Carolina, where he is leading in polls.
For the Republicans, Mr. Romney winning in Iowa may be just enough to fend off a strong challenge from Sen. "F--- You" McCain in New Hampshire. It appears that it will be close in New Hampshire for both men. And if Mr. Thompson finishes second in Iowa, he may have a lot of momentum to do the same in New Hampshire and vanquish the McCain candidacy. As for the Rev. Mike, he will go back into the second tier, to also-ran status and probably out of the race. Mr. Giuliani gave up on Iowa and they will have given up on him. A decent showing for Mr. Paul gives him life going into New Hampshire. Mr. Paul will be the one candidate, win or lose, who will be in to the bitter end.
And, if I am right, I should head off to Las Vegas and the sports books!
2 comments:
i hope you're right about a strong second for thompson.... after seeing all of your sporting predictions over these past months you might outta hold off the trip to vegas just yet.. ha ha....
Well, I admit that I was wrong on the outcome, but I am more energized to stop this Rev. Mike. I am convinced that is he should become the Republican nominee, we would lose and lose big. Hey, at least I was closer to the Democrats totals! So, maybe I should get half way to Las Vegas, maybe Stateline!
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