Right now the Republican voters of Nevada are going to caucus for either Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio or Donald J. Trump.
It will be a late night back East for the caucus does not close until 9pm Pacific Standard Time. Turnout is supposed to be about 10% and the unreliable polling does show the Donald far ahead. But Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are putting in a serious effort here. It is the last test for all the candidates before the 13-state Super Tuesday primary a week from today.
Since I am a partisan in this, I urge all Nevada Republicans to show up and caucus for Sen. Rubio.
There will be a separate post about results as they come in. If you can't wait, here is a page for up to the minute results.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Good News For Trump
As an opponent of Donald J. Trump, these polls on the surface are rather disappointing as they almost all show him in the lead and at 50% in Massachusetts.
But there are caveats that are a glimmer of hope if you, like me, oppose the Donald.
For one, John Kasich has some splainin' to do since he is not leading in his home state. The Donald has a five-point lead with 31% to 26% for Gov. Kasich. The rationale for the Kasich candidacy seems to be falling apart if he can not lead in his home state.
That is not a problem for Sen. Ted Cruz as he has a comfortable eight-point lead in his home state of Texas. Sen. Cruz has a solid 37% to the Donald's 29%. Sen. Cruz is also leading in New Mexico but only by one point and it is a bunch at the top three.
Even Sen. Marco Rubio has some good news as he is leading in Utah by two percent. The interesting thing here is that the Donald is in third place with 18% of the vote.
Now there are eight states that have polling regarding next Tuesday's Super Tuesday primary.
So play along to note something.
If you add the percentages of the eight polls here, the Donald averages a solid 31%. If one combines Sen. Cruz averaging 21% and Sen. Rubio averaging 18%, the two leading anti-Trump candidacy with 37% of the vote. And if Gov. Kasich and Dr. Ben Carson were to drop out of the race and their support was distributed evenly, the anti-Trump forces still lead 42% to 37%.
So is it possible that someone may see the handwriting on the wall and drop out before next week? It is unlikely but possible depending on tonight's caucus in Nevada. It appears that Sen. Rubio is now getting a huge boost of elected members of congress supporting him. The Donald just has to hold steady and hope the bleeding on the right continues.
My guess is that by next Wednesday both Gov. Kasich and Dr. Carson will suspend their campaigns. For Gov. Kasich, he needs to be running a national campaign and he is not. For Dr. Carson, He is not gaining but losing support and even his most ardent supporters will ask him to leave with a modicum of dignity.
We shall see a lot more polling and who will come out with a chance to be the anti-Trump. My guess is that will be Sen. Rubio. Then it will be Mano a Mano.
But there are caveats that are a glimmer of hope if you, like me, oppose the Donald.
For one, John Kasich has some splainin' to do since he is not leading in his home state. The Donald has a five-point lead with 31% to 26% for Gov. Kasich. The rationale for the Kasich candidacy seems to be falling apart if he can not lead in his home state.
That is not a problem for Sen. Ted Cruz as he has a comfortable eight-point lead in his home state of Texas. Sen. Cruz has a solid 37% to the Donald's 29%. Sen. Cruz is also leading in New Mexico but only by one point and it is a bunch at the top three.
Even Sen. Marco Rubio has some good news as he is leading in Utah by two percent. The interesting thing here is that the Donald is in third place with 18% of the vote.
Now there are eight states that have polling regarding next Tuesday's Super Tuesday primary.
So play along to note something.
If you add the percentages of the eight polls here, the Donald averages a solid 31%. If one combines Sen. Cruz averaging 21% and Sen. Rubio averaging 18%, the two leading anti-Trump candidacy with 37% of the vote. And if Gov. Kasich and Dr. Ben Carson were to drop out of the race and their support was distributed evenly, the anti-Trump forces still lead 42% to 37%.
So is it possible that someone may see the handwriting on the wall and drop out before next week? It is unlikely but possible depending on tonight's caucus in Nevada. It appears that Sen. Rubio is now getting a huge boost of elected members of congress supporting him. The Donald just has to hold steady and hope the bleeding on the right continues.
My guess is that by next Wednesday both Gov. Kasich and Dr. Carson will suspend their campaigns. For Gov. Kasich, he needs to be running a national campaign and he is not. For Dr. Carson, He is not gaining but losing support and even his most ardent supporters will ask him to leave with a modicum of dignity.
We shall see a lot more polling and who will come out with a chance to be the anti-Trump. My guess is that will be Sen. Rubio. Then it will be Mano a Mano.
Monday, February 22, 2016
What Do The Trump Voters Want?
I'm totally honest here in the question above.
What exactly do the people who have been or are supporting one Donald J. Trump really want from their political savior?
Some interesting polling coming from the Donald's recent win in South Carolina over the weekend seems to contradict the issue that the Donald is really running on.
That is illegal immigration.
It appears that the majority, yes the majority, of those that participated in the Republican primary favor a pathway to citizenship and or legal status for illegal aliens.
Huh?!
So while the Donald is averaging about 30% of the vote in the three primaries that have been held, it is a minority within a minority. The majority of Republicans in a state like South Carolina favor some kind of legal status for those here illegally but have, basically, been working and earning a paycheck.
What is clear is that the vocal minority is angry. And voting for the Donald is what unifies the angry. The angry that want to close the border. The angry that want to bar Muslims from entering the United States. At least for a while. After that, well it gets pretty murky.
See in the beginning of the Donald's campaign, the Donald was trying to win over conservatives by having seemingly a Come-to-Jesus conversion to a solid conservative position on a variety of issues as noted in this post from Bookworm Room.
Many people just liked that the Donald was taking on the sclerosis of the Washington Beltway GOP. Yeah! Telling it like it is! And to a point I agree. The Beltway GOP oversold what they could and or could not do in regards to the Dear Leader, President Obama. They have never admitted such and deserve scorn and ridicule. Even the writer of the link admits that was a attractive aspect of the Donald and why he got him.
But then the post compares and contrasts what the Donald has done and or said in the past, it is damning to a thinking person.
There is a meme going around Facebook as an example trying to prove that the Donald has been a registered Republican since 1980. There is even something that looks official. The only problem is that what the record is that the Donald has been a registered voter and could participate in scheduled elections. The Donald, by his own admission, has been like crap on his party registration. All over the place.
Let's not forget that the Donald has also, again by his own admission, given money to both parties. And more to the Democrats than the Republicans. The Donald gave money to Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi that they used to retake control of congress in 2006.
When it comes to socialized medicine, the Donald is pretty much all in. He makes a lying claim that people are literally dying in the streets and that will not happen under a Trump presidency. That is right out of, well Bernie Sanders playbook.
The writer of the linked post does an excellent job on explaining the difference between eminent domain for the public good vs. a crony capitalist goal (of which the Donald is a YUGE crony capitalist).
There is much more, but for people that call themselves conservative, how in the name of all is holy can you support Donald J. Trump?
Is it really just about illegal immigration? Is that really all you care about? You really think that the Donald is going to do what he says? How? With congress? Good luck with that one. If not, are you down with a President Donald simply going the executive order route? Or is it that your anger is that of a form of political road rage? Not thinking but maybe going off half-cocked and spewing out because it will make you temporarily feel better?
Before you scream that I am for the Gang of Eight type of legislation, nope, not in the least. We do have to deport those here illegally and committing illegal activity. Period. But there is no way we can, or should, do anything sweeping. It all has to happen piece by piece. There is no magic bullet. Really, there is not. Unless you are willing to give everything one believes in up, then I get the support of the Donald.
Please do not try to claim that the Donald is a conservative. He is not. Your issue is one and it is a minority view within a minority of voters.
What the Trump voters want is the same thing that propels people like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse Ventura to power. A magic fix to big problems that cannot just be waved away.
What exactly do the people who have been or are supporting one Donald J. Trump really want from their political savior?
Some interesting polling coming from the Donald's recent win in South Carolina over the weekend seems to contradict the issue that the Donald is really running on.
That is illegal immigration.
It appears that the majority, yes the majority, of those that participated in the Republican primary favor a pathway to citizenship and or legal status for illegal aliens.
Huh?!
So while the Donald is averaging about 30% of the vote in the three primaries that have been held, it is a minority within a minority. The majority of Republicans in a state like South Carolina favor some kind of legal status for those here illegally but have, basically, been working and earning a paycheck.
What is clear is that the vocal minority is angry. And voting for the Donald is what unifies the angry. The angry that want to close the border. The angry that want to bar Muslims from entering the United States. At least for a while. After that, well it gets pretty murky.
See in the beginning of the Donald's campaign, the Donald was trying to win over conservatives by having seemingly a Come-to-Jesus conversion to a solid conservative position on a variety of issues as noted in this post from Bookworm Room.
Many people just liked that the Donald was taking on the sclerosis of the Washington Beltway GOP. Yeah! Telling it like it is! And to a point I agree. The Beltway GOP oversold what they could and or could not do in regards to the Dear Leader, President Obama. They have never admitted such and deserve scorn and ridicule. Even the writer of the link admits that was a attractive aspect of the Donald and why he got him.
But then the post compares and contrasts what the Donald has done and or said in the past, it is damning to a thinking person.
There is a meme going around Facebook as an example trying to prove that the Donald has been a registered Republican since 1980. There is even something that looks official. The only problem is that what the record is that the Donald has been a registered voter and could participate in scheduled elections. The Donald, by his own admission, has been like crap on his party registration. All over the place.
Let's not forget that the Donald has also, again by his own admission, given money to both parties. And more to the Democrats than the Republicans. The Donald gave money to Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi that they used to retake control of congress in 2006.
When it comes to socialized medicine, the Donald is pretty much all in. He makes a lying claim that people are literally dying in the streets and that will not happen under a Trump presidency. That is right out of, well Bernie Sanders playbook.
The writer of the linked post does an excellent job on explaining the difference between eminent domain for the public good vs. a crony capitalist goal (of which the Donald is a YUGE crony capitalist).
There is much more, but for people that call themselves conservative, how in the name of all is holy can you support Donald J. Trump?
Is it really just about illegal immigration? Is that really all you care about? You really think that the Donald is going to do what he says? How? With congress? Good luck with that one. If not, are you down with a President Donald simply going the executive order route? Or is it that your anger is that of a form of political road rage? Not thinking but maybe going off half-cocked and spewing out because it will make you temporarily feel better?
Before you scream that I am for the Gang of Eight type of legislation, nope, not in the least. We do have to deport those here illegally and committing illegal activity. Period. But there is no way we can, or should, do anything sweeping. It all has to happen piece by piece. There is no magic bullet. Really, there is not. Unless you are willing to give everything one believes in up, then I get the support of the Donald.
Please do not try to claim that the Donald is a conservative. He is not. Your issue is one and it is a minority view within a minority of voters.
What the Trump voters want is the same thing that propels people like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse Ventura to power. A magic fix to big problems that cannot just be waved away.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Christie, Fiorina Drop Out
As expected, GOP presidential candidates Gov. Chris Crispy, er Chirstie, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO, Carly Fiorina, have "suspended", re: ended, their quests for the presidency.
Both candidates finished near the bottom in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Gov. Christie went out literally kneecapping Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) during last Saturday's presidential debate. He ran a poor campaign that never caught fire with much of anyone. By kneecapping Sen. Rubio he raised some serious doubts about the junior senator's ability to think on his feet. Gov. Christie thought that would help him gain some traction. What it did do was a double whammy by clearly affecting voting for Sen. Rubio but also to Gov. Christie. The man spent 70 days in New Hampshire trying to mix it up with voters. for all his effort he got a whole seven percent of the vote.
On the other hand, Mrs. Fiorina had a proven business record and did run in 2010 in California against Sen. Barbara Mamm Boxer. She did lose that race in a good Democrat year in California. Hell, they are all good Democrat years here in the once Golden State. But Mrs. Fiorina brought a very broad depth to the issues facing the nation. She should have been in the last presidential debate but the reality is that it would not have helped her out all that much.
What will be interesting is to see who, if anyone, they will support.
My guess is that Gov. Christie would throw his support to the former Florida governor, Jeb! Bush. Gov. Christie is pretty establishment, whatever that means, and I would not expect him to go out of the way to change that. I think that Mrs. Fiorina could throw her support to Sen. Rubio. Foreign policy is important to her as to Sen. Rubio and while some think that she is also an establishment type, I think that she straddles the fence enough that she could be a big catch for Sen. Rubio.
Now if only Dr. Ben Carson would read the writing on the wall . . .
Both candidates finished near the bottom in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Gov. Christie went out literally kneecapping Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) during last Saturday's presidential debate. He ran a poor campaign that never caught fire with much of anyone. By kneecapping Sen. Rubio he raised some serious doubts about the junior senator's ability to think on his feet. Gov. Christie thought that would help him gain some traction. What it did do was a double whammy by clearly affecting voting for Sen. Rubio but also to Gov. Christie. The man spent 70 days in New Hampshire trying to mix it up with voters. for all his effort he got a whole seven percent of the vote.
On the other hand, Mrs. Fiorina had a proven business record and did run in 2010 in California against Sen. Barbara Mamm Boxer. She did lose that race in a good Democrat year in California. Hell, they are all good Democrat years here in the once Golden State. But Mrs. Fiorina brought a very broad depth to the issues facing the nation. She should have been in the last presidential debate but the reality is that it would not have helped her out all that much.
What will be interesting is to see who, if anyone, they will support.
My guess is that Gov. Christie would throw his support to the former Florida governor, Jeb! Bush. Gov. Christie is pretty establishment, whatever that means, and I would not expect him to go out of the way to change that. I think that Mrs. Fiorina could throw her support to Sen. Rubio. Foreign policy is important to her as to Sen. Rubio and while some think that she is also an establishment type, I think that she straddles the fence enough that she could be a big catch for Sen. Rubio.
Now if only Dr. Ben Carson would read the writing on the wall . . .
Thoughts On New Hampshire
Last night was an earthquake for both the Democrat and Republican parties as two outsiders swept to victory in the persons of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Donald J. Trump in the New Hampshire presidential primaries.
I will just comment for the Democrats, there is no question that one Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She should win the nomination because of her dominance of the superdelegates. But make no mistake, Sen. Sanders and his brand of democratic socialism is finding an audience. There is no doubt that Sen. Sanders can and will win some more states. He will move Mrs. Clinton further to the left and the Democrat party as a whole that way. There is a civil war in the Democrat party and that can not be glossed over.
But this is Right View From The Left Coast and I will make extended thoughts on the Republican race.
And I will do so regarding each of the eight candidates that seriously competed in New Hampshire starting with the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary.
Donald J. Trump.
No question he won and won big. But make no mistake about it. in this case he got a lot of his 35% support from the undeclared or independent voters. Having said that, there is no question that Mr. Trump is the Pat Buchanan with money of this election cycle. He is saying that everything needs to be blown up in Washington and he is the one that can do it. Never mind that he offers little difference between himself and either of the two Democrats running for president. he is against the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll GOP establishment. And that is enough for about 30 to 35% of the GOP vote. Mr. Trump now has 17 delegates as the result of second place in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. Remember that 84% of the delegates are distributed by a form of proportional representation depending on the state. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all states. It will be important come convention time.
John Kasich.
Basically Gov. Kasich finished a distant second and that will do nothing to help him get more money and or endorsements. Gov Kasich will not win in South Carolina. I don't see anywhere he has any opening. He will try to hang on, but without a miracle in South Carolina and Nevada, where does he win on Super Tuesday? But he can keep going on until Super Tuesday and hope to accumulate more than the three delegates he got on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz.
Sen. Cruz ended up having a good night. No, really. He spent little time and money in New Hampshire and still managed a third place finish and two delegates. Adding to the eight that he won in Iowa and he is in second place with a total of 10 delegates. Sen. Cruz is probably going to finish in the top three in South Carolina and could win or come in second in Nevada. He is going to be battling Mr. Trump for the conservative and or anti-establishment GOP vote.
Jeb! Bush.
Mr. Bush should really stop already and get out of the race. But, alas, he will not and continue the delusion that he will somehow wrest the nomination. Even if this race ends up in a brokered convention, I do not think the establishment will force another and weakest of the Bush's down the throats of a GOP electorate that will keep people home. But last night, he and the Right To Rise super PAC spent $35,000,000 for a forth place finish and two delegates. Mr. Bush has the money to go through to Super Tuesday but he does not have the support of the GOP voters. This election cycle it is simple. The GOP voters are repeating a mantra. No More Bushes. And even without Donald Trump in this race, Mr. Bush would barely expand his extremely limited support.
Marco Rubio.
Clearly the disappointment of the night. No doubt that Chris Crispy's, er Christie's, interrogation of him proved effective in this past Saturday's debate. No doubt that some voters were turned off by Sen. Rubio falling into Gov. Christies trap. Some may think that he is part of the establishment when he has spent his career against the establishment. Yes, save for the Gang of Eight so-called comprehensive immigration "reform". I still support Sen. Rubio as the best hope against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. He is a conservative. And rather than run away from a bad performance, he owned it. Very big props for that. But he got no delegates and makes his path to Super Tuesday harder, it is not impossible. Look for Mr. Bush and Sen. Rubio to be duking it out in the next debate.
Chris Christie.
A loser and also one that staked his whole campaign on New Hampshire and finished in sixth place, no delegates. It appears that Gov. Christie is about to exit the race as reported by Politico. If that is the case, his only contribution would be to have thrown Marco Rubio off of his game. Maybe that is a good thing but as noted, timing is everything. We shall see if that is a long-lasting blow Gov. Christie delievered.
Carly Fiorina.
She got screwed, plain and simple. She was not given a slot in this past Saturday's presidential debate and should have. Lack of exposure on such a stage probably relegated her to this poor finish. Could she have done better if she was allowed to debate? Probably. While Mrs. Fiorina is still in the race, it is on life support and may change any day now.
Dr. Ben Carson.
I do not know if he is running a real campaign or trying to get some kind of book deal. The good doctor should not have run for president but a lot of people convinced him to do so and he has. But he finished a dismal two percent and really should think about exiting the race.
A broader thought that I had is that conservatives were the big loser in all of this. Mr. Trump is not running as a limited government constitutionalist but as a populist strongman. Gov. Kasich keeps prating on about taking care of the poor and not exactly opposed to Obamacare. It is clear that Gov. Kasich is running for the compassionate conservative vote and that will not fly with many GOP voters this time around. One can put Mr. Bush in that category as well. of the remaining contenders, only Sens. Cruz and Rubio seem to have a clue about limited government. As I write this, National Review just released this editorial lamenting the same thing.
One thing is for sure.
This battle has not ended in New Hampshire and it does look like a serious one for the immediate future. And this is why delegates matter this time around.
I will just comment for the Democrats, there is no question that one Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She should win the nomination because of her dominance of the superdelegates. But make no mistake, Sen. Sanders and his brand of democratic socialism is finding an audience. There is no doubt that Sen. Sanders can and will win some more states. He will move Mrs. Clinton further to the left and the Democrat party as a whole that way. There is a civil war in the Democrat party and that can not be glossed over.
But this is Right View From The Left Coast and I will make extended thoughts on the Republican race.
And I will do so regarding each of the eight candidates that seriously competed in New Hampshire starting with the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary.
Donald J. Trump.
No question he won and won big. But make no mistake about it. in this case he got a lot of his 35% support from the undeclared or independent voters. Having said that, there is no question that Mr. Trump is the Pat Buchanan with money of this election cycle. He is saying that everything needs to be blown up in Washington and he is the one that can do it. Never mind that he offers little difference between himself and either of the two Democrats running for president. he is against the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll GOP establishment. And that is enough for about 30 to 35% of the GOP vote. Mr. Trump now has 17 delegates as the result of second place in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. Remember that 84% of the delegates are distributed by a form of proportional representation depending on the state. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all states. It will be important come convention time.
John Kasich.
Basically Gov. Kasich finished a distant second and that will do nothing to help him get more money and or endorsements. Gov Kasich will not win in South Carolina. I don't see anywhere he has any opening. He will try to hang on, but without a miracle in South Carolina and Nevada, where does he win on Super Tuesday? But he can keep going on until Super Tuesday and hope to accumulate more than the three delegates he got on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz.
Sen. Cruz ended up having a good night. No, really. He spent little time and money in New Hampshire and still managed a third place finish and two delegates. Adding to the eight that he won in Iowa and he is in second place with a total of 10 delegates. Sen. Cruz is probably going to finish in the top three in South Carolina and could win or come in second in Nevada. He is going to be battling Mr. Trump for the conservative and or anti-establishment GOP vote.
Jeb! Bush.
Mr. Bush should really stop already and get out of the race. But, alas, he will not and continue the delusion that he will somehow wrest the nomination. Even if this race ends up in a brokered convention, I do not think the establishment will force another and weakest of the Bush's down the throats of a GOP electorate that will keep people home. But last night, he and the Right To Rise super PAC spent $35,000,000 for a forth place finish and two delegates. Mr. Bush has the money to go through to Super Tuesday but he does not have the support of the GOP voters. This election cycle it is simple. The GOP voters are repeating a mantra. No More Bushes. And even without Donald Trump in this race, Mr. Bush would barely expand his extremely limited support.
Marco Rubio.
Clearly the disappointment of the night. No doubt that Chris Crispy's, er Christie's, interrogation of him proved effective in this past Saturday's debate. No doubt that some voters were turned off by Sen. Rubio falling into Gov. Christies trap. Some may think that he is part of the establishment when he has spent his career against the establishment. Yes, save for the Gang of Eight so-called comprehensive immigration "reform". I still support Sen. Rubio as the best hope against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. He is a conservative. And rather than run away from a bad performance, he owned it. Very big props for that. But he got no delegates and makes his path to Super Tuesday harder, it is not impossible. Look for Mr. Bush and Sen. Rubio to be duking it out in the next debate.
Chris Christie.
A loser and also one that staked his whole campaign on New Hampshire and finished in sixth place, no delegates. It appears that Gov. Christie is about to exit the race as reported by Politico. If that is the case, his only contribution would be to have thrown Marco Rubio off of his game. Maybe that is a good thing but as noted, timing is everything. We shall see if that is a long-lasting blow Gov. Christie delievered.
Carly Fiorina.
She got screwed, plain and simple. She was not given a slot in this past Saturday's presidential debate and should have. Lack of exposure on such a stage probably relegated her to this poor finish. Could she have done better if she was allowed to debate? Probably. While Mrs. Fiorina is still in the race, it is on life support and may change any day now.
Dr. Ben Carson.
I do not know if he is running a real campaign or trying to get some kind of book deal. The good doctor should not have run for president but a lot of people convinced him to do so and he has. But he finished a dismal two percent and really should think about exiting the race.
A broader thought that I had is that conservatives were the big loser in all of this. Mr. Trump is not running as a limited government constitutionalist but as a populist strongman. Gov. Kasich keeps prating on about taking care of the poor and not exactly opposed to Obamacare. It is clear that Gov. Kasich is running for the compassionate conservative vote and that will not fly with many GOP voters this time around. One can put Mr. Bush in that category as well. of the remaining contenders, only Sens. Cruz and Rubio seem to have a clue about limited government. As I write this, National Review just released this editorial lamenting the same thing.
One thing is for sure.
This battle has not ended in New Hampshire and it does look like a serious one for the immediate future. And this is why delegates matter this time around.
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
2016 New Hampshire GOP Primary - It's On!
The first in the nation primary in the 2016 GOP presidential Death March campaign is on in the state of New Hampshire and we already have some votes.
The voters of Dixville Notch voted 3 - 2 for the Ohio governor, John Kasich over businessman Donald J. Trump.
It does not amount to much of anything but it gives a sense of some of the voting that will take part in the rest of the state.
In your humble blogger's estimation, the polls are all over the place and will probably turn out to be wrong.
Right now, as he has throughout the campaign season, Donald J. Trump is in the lead., In fact if you look at the polling averages over at Real Clear Politics, the Donald has a solid lead over Florida senator, Marco Rubio, leading by about 17 points. I think that the candidate to watch for in terms of potential victory or a very strong second is the aforementioned Gov. Kasich. Gov. Kasich is literally staking it all on a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep his campaign going. As he will tell you, repeatedly, Gov. Kasich has done 106 town hall meetings. It is one of the reasons that Gov. Kasich did so badly in Iowa. What that means to me is that Gov. Kasich does not have the ability to mount a nationwide campaign unless it gets something going out of New Hampshire. Any less than a second place finish and I think that Gov. Kasich is all but done. Same for former Florida governor, Jeb Bush and New Jersey governor, Chris Crispy, er Chirstie.
By all accounts, ground game matters and many believe that Gov. Kasich has one of the best.
Well, how will they finish?
Here is my order of finish, no percentages:
John Kasich
Donald J. Trump
Marco Rubio
Jeb! Bush
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Yep, I think that Gov. Kasich can beat the Donald. But the reason that I do not put any percentages is because I think it will be a close log jam for the top four spots. I don't think whether Gov. Kasich or the Donald would win by much.
Again, like Iowa, this is a state in which the delegates will be awarded proportionally. So as many as five candidates will have some delegates going into the next race of consequence, South Carolina. The GOP primary will be on February 20.
If you are bored and want to read all about the race from the local level, go to the New Hampshire Union Leader. For results later, there is the New Hampshire secretary of state website.
One thing for sure is that New Hampshire will not settle anything in the GOP presidential field. Maybe one or two candidates will drop out. No one really knows for sure.
But one thing is certain.
It makes South Carolina even more important than many thought at the beginning of the campaign season.
The voters of Dixville Notch voted 3 - 2 for the Ohio governor, John Kasich over businessman Donald J. Trump.
It does not amount to much of anything but it gives a sense of some of the voting that will take part in the rest of the state.
In your humble blogger's estimation, the polls are all over the place and will probably turn out to be wrong.
Right now, as he has throughout the campaign season, Donald J. Trump is in the lead., In fact if you look at the polling averages over at Real Clear Politics, the Donald has a solid lead over Florida senator, Marco Rubio, leading by about 17 points. I think that the candidate to watch for in terms of potential victory or a very strong second is the aforementioned Gov. Kasich. Gov. Kasich is literally staking it all on a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep his campaign going. As he will tell you, repeatedly, Gov. Kasich has done 106 town hall meetings. It is one of the reasons that Gov. Kasich did so badly in Iowa. What that means to me is that Gov. Kasich does not have the ability to mount a nationwide campaign unless it gets something going out of New Hampshire. Any less than a second place finish and I think that Gov. Kasich is all but done. Same for former Florida governor, Jeb Bush and New Jersey governor, Chris Crispy, er Chirstie.
By all accounts, ground game matters and many believe that Gov. Kasich has one of the best.
Well, how will they finish?
Here is my order of finish, no percentages:
John Kasich
Donald J. Trump
Marco Rubio
Jeb! Bush
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Yep, I think that Gov. Kasich can beat the Donald. But the reason that I do not put any percentages is because I think it will be a close log jam for the top four spots. I don't think whether Gov. Kasich or the Donald would win by much.
Again, like Iowa, this is a state in which the delegates will be awarded proportionally. So as many as five candidates will have some delegates going into the next race of consequence, South Carolina. The GOP primary will be on February 20.
If you are bored and want to read all about the race from the local level, go to the New Hampshire Union Leader. For results later, there is the New Hampshire secretary of state website.
One thing for sure is that New Hampshire will not settle anything in the GOP presidential field. Maybe one or two candidates will drop out. No one really knows for sure.
But one thing is certain.
It makes South Carolina even more important than many thought at the beginning of the campaign season.
Monday, February 08, 2016
Pro-Abortion Group Slams Doritos Super Bowl Ad
If one does not think that the so-called pro-choice crowd is really pro-abortion, the histrionics of NARAL Pro-Choice America during yesterday's Super Bowl should put it to rest.
Doritos chips put out what I thought was a funny commercial as seen above.
As I was watching the game in a large group, it was more of a visual look as I did not pick up everything that was being said.
But according to NARAL, this was a horrible commercial.
Why?
Well, here is the tweet down below:
#NotBuyingIt - that @Doritos ad using #antichoice tactic of humanizing fetuses & sexist tropes of dads as clueless & moms as uptight #SB50.
WELL!
How dare Doritos humanize a baby in the womb! How dare they! And showing a future dad as clueless! And showing an uptight mom to be!
Gee, you know, its just a commercial. Something to illicit laughs and get people to purchase a particular product; in this case Doritos chips.
But no, no, no. There was a social and political agenda there according to the NARAL folks.
If you actually watch the commercial, it is obvious that the baby, and yes I will call it a baby at this point, is nearly full-term. The doctor even says that it is due any day now. It is what a baby looks like nearly full-term in the womb.
Ahh, but if what NARAL would call a fetus is humanized in any way, even to and out of the womb, then they would have to admit that it is killing a human life. Thus it was terrible that an apparently full-term baby would be referred to as such.
Science, not feelings, is confirming that which most pro-lifers believe. That there is a point a baby is such and that many can survive out of the womb not at just nine months but in as little as seven months. There is a point that a woman and a man are making a conscious choice to kill a human being.
That is why NARAL was so offended. Oh sure, they thought that they would throw in supposed stereotypes because, if you go to the first link, they were watching every commercial for perceived slights against the gals in particular.
This is what is wrong with the Social Justice Warrior crowd.
They do not have any life and are not happy people.
No really, they are not happy. Happy people, or people who don't care, would not freak out over a commercial in which it was clear it was stereotyping. That is a lot of humor. In this case, it was lighthearted at best and in reality really making the male look stupid. That is something that the entertainment industry has been doing since, well at least the advent of mass television in the 1950s. Happy people, or people who don't care, would not use good time to waste looking for real and or perceived slights on any particular group. Happy people, or people that don't care, usually look at a glass as half-full. Unhappy and or SJWs look at a glass as half-empty and want the whole glass.
There is a correlation between why conservative leaning people tend to be happy and content. It is not that we do not see that there are real problems. It is that we do not look at everything as a problem. We know that the world is not a perfect place. We seek different, time-proven solutions.
On the other hand, liberal leaning people see nothing but problems. Everything requires some kind of government solution. Even if it makes a problem worse. And most important is that they see conservatives not merely as maybe wrong but evil. Our minds have to be changed on any given topic. If not, friendships are often at risk. Sometimes families get divided over "issues".
One problem is when conservatives think that they will be just as bad as liberals and see things as a problem or an issue as a form of one-upmanship. Thus we could, and some are, just as bad scolds as the other side.
I just wanted to watch some of the Super Bowl and enjoy a few commercials. Is that so much to ask? Do I have to think about when life begins? According to NARAL, I do. We all do.
We are so doomed.
As I was watching the game in a large group, it was more of a visual look as I did not pick up everything that was being said.
But according to NARAL, this was a horrible commercial.
Why?
Well, here is the tweet down below:
#NotBuyingIt - that @Doritos ad using #antichoice tactic of humanizing fetuses & sexist tropes of dads as clueless & moms as uptight #SB50.
WELL!
How dare Doritos humanize a baby in the womb! How dare they! And showing a future dad as clueless! And showing an uptight mom to be!
Gee, you know, its just a commercial. Something to illicit laughs and get people to purchase a particular product; in this case Doritos chips.
But no, no, no. There was a social and political agenda there according to the NARAL folks.
If you actually watch the commercial, it is obvious that the baby, and yes I will call it a baby at this point, is nearly full-term. The doctor even says that it is due any day now. It is what a baby looks like nearly full-term in the womb.
Ahh, but if what NARAL would call a fetus is humanized in any way, even to and out of the womb, then they would have to admit that it is killing a human life. Thus it was terrible that an apparently full-term baby would be referred to as such.
Science, not feelings, is confirming that which most pro-lifers believe. That there is a point a baby is such and that many can survive out of the womb not at just nine months but in as little as seven months. There is a point that a woman and a man are making a conscious choice to kill a human being.
That is why NARAL was so offended. Oh sure, they thought that they would throw in supposed stereotypes because, if you go to the first link, they were watching every commercial for perceived slights against the gals in particular.
This is what is wrong with the Social Justice Warrior crowd.
They do not have any life and are not happy people.
No really, they are not happy. Happy people, or people who don't care, would not freak out over a commercial in which it was clear it was stereotyping. That is a lot of humor. In this case, it was lighthearted at best and in reality really making the male look stupid. That is something that the entertainment industry has been doing since, well at least the advent of mass television in the 1950s. Happy people, or people who don't care, would not use good time to waste looking for real and or perceived slights on any particular group. Happy people, or people that don't care, usually look at a glass as half-full. Unhappy and or SJWs look at a glass as half-empty and want the whole glass.
There is a correlation between why conservative leaning people tend to be happy and content. It is not that we do not see that there are real problems. It is that we do not look at everything as a problem. We know that the world is not a perfect place. We seek different, time-proven solutions.
On the other hand, liberal leaning people see nothing but problems. Everything requires some kind of government solution. Even if it makes a problem worse. And most important is that they see conservatives not merely as maybe wrong but evil. Our minds have to be changed on any given topic. If not, friendships are often at risk. Sometimes families get divided over "issues".
One problem is when conservatives think that they will be just as bad as liberals and see things as a problem or an issue as a form of one-upmanship. Thus we could, and some are, just as bad scolds as the other side.
I just wanted to watch some of the Super Bowl and enjoy a few commercials. Is that so much to ask? Do I have to think about when life begins? According to NARAL, I do. We all do.
We are so doomed.
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Thoughts On Iowa
Last night the voters spoke in Iowa and delivered victories to Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz.
In terms of delegates, both winners simply received the majority of, not all. Thus Sen. Cruz ended up with eight delegates. Second place finisher, Donald J. Trump, and third place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio ended up with seven delegates each. On the Democrat side, Mrs. Clinton gets 23 delegates and her opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders will get 21 delegates.
A lot of criticism is thrown Iowa's way (as well as New Hampshire) being the first in the nation to vote in the respected party primaries. I think that they are good states to see how a candidate can deal with organization. Clearly Sen. Cruz out hustled all the other Republican candidates. His team singled out the state's conservative, evangelical Christian voters and Sen. Cruz scored their votes. Like it or not, the Donald did not take the old fashioned retail politicking and organization seriously and it showed. Also, sorry but skipping the last debate before the caucus did not help. No matter what excuse the Donald uses to not participate in the debate, many caucus participants said that eventually determined their vote. And who would have thought Marco Rubio would have had such a strong third-place finish looking at the polls?
As I noted last night, clearly there was something called Marcomentum that catapulted Sen. Rubio to nearly a huge upset and forcing the Donald to a potential third place finish. That is breathing life into a campaign that really needs it.
Ted Cruz went one way too long in his victory speech. And while his religious references did not bother me, I thought about the rest of the nation and places that would be totally turned off by such overt Christianity. Sen. Cruz will have to find a way to be less evangelical Christian preacher and more able to really expand the base of his support to those people he, and I, believe he needs to win a general election campaign. We will see if Sen. Cruz can pivot in much more secular New Hampshire.
Donald J. Trump has to begin to take this campaign seriously if he is really in it to win it. The Donald will have to spend real money for organization and broadcast advertising. And he will have to participate in debates no matter what.
Marco Rubio needs to continue to build on the Marcomentum and get to second place in New Hampshire, simple as that.
For the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton has to be humiliated that she could not put Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed "democratic" socialist, away in Iowa. I will say it now. The Democrats are that far to the left that I will not be surprised if Sen. Sanders ends up the Democrat nominee. What we are seeing is the left-wing crack up and the end of the Obama coalition. And the only saving grace for Mrs. Clinton is the whole Super-delegates that are there to guarantee an "establishment" candidate wins the nomination. We shall see but there is no doubt Mrs. Clinton is going to lose badly to the senator from next-door Vermont next Tuesday.
The funny thing about all of this is that it has not made the race any easier for either political party. It is all still up in the air. And maybe for a while.
In terms of delegates, both winners simply received the majority of, not all. Thus Sen. Cruz ended up with eight delegates. Second place finisher, Donald J. Trump, and third place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio ended up with seven delegates each. On the Democrat side, Mrs. Clinton gets 23 delegates and her opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders will get 21 delegates.
A lot of criticism is thrown Iowa's way (as well as New Hampshire) being the first in the nation to vote in the respected party primaries. I think that they are good states to see how a candidate can deal with organization. Clearly Sen. Cruz out hustled all the other Republican candidates. His team singled out the state's conservative, evangelical Christian voters and Sen. Cruz scored their votes. Like it or not, the Donald did not take the old fashioned retail politicking and organization seriously and it showed. Also, sorry but skipping the last debate before the caucus did not help. No matter what excuse the Donald uses to not participate in the debate, many caucus participants said that eventually determined their vote. And who would have thought Marco Rubio would have had such a strong third-place finish looking at the polls?
As I noted last night, clearly there was something called Marcomentum that catapulted Sen. Rubio to nearly a huge upset and forcing the Donald to a potential third place finish. That is breathing life into a campaign that really needs it.
Ted Cruz went one way too long in his victory speech. And while his religious references did not bother me, I thought about the rest of the nation and places that would be totally turned off by such overt Christianity. Sen. Cruz will have to find a way to be less evangelical Christian preacher and more able to really expand the base of his support to those people he, and I, believe he needs to win a general election campaign. We will see if Sen. Cruz can pivot in much more secular New Hampshire.
Donald J. Trump has to begin to take this campaign seriously if he is really in it to win it. The Donald will have to spend real money for organization and broadcast advertising. And he will have to participate in debates no matter what.
Marco Rubio needs to continue to build on the Marcomentum and get to second place in New Hampshire, simple as that.
For the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton has to be humiliated that she could not put Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed "democratic" socialist, away in Iowa. I will say it now. The Democrats are that far to the left that I will not be surprised if Sen. Sanders ends up the Democrat nominee. What we are seeing is the left-wing crack up and the end of the Obama coalition. And the only saving grace for Mrs. Clinton is the whole Super-delegates that are there to guarantee an "establishment" candidate wins the nomination. We shall see but there is no doubt Mrs. Clinton is going to lose badly to the senator from next-door Vermont next Tuesday.
The funny thing about all of this is that it has not made the race any easier for either political party. It is all still up in the air. And maybe for a while.
Monday, February 01, 2016
CRUZ WINS IOWA
Texas senator Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are the projected winners according to the Ace of Spades Decision Desk.
The big loser is . . .the Donald. Oh yeah, and probably Hilary Clinton as well.
What?! Mrs. Clinton?!
Well, as of this writing Mrs. Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are essentially tied at 50%. Some guy named Martin O'Malley who had not even polled a full percent may keep Sen. Sanders from victory. Oh yeah, and he dropped out of the race.
Stay tuned for that one.
On the GOP side, Sen. Cruz vanquished the gasbag from New York City, Donald J. Trump and with relative ease as well.
As of this writing, here is the total
Ted Cruz: 47,510 28%
Donald J. Trump: 41,812 24%
Marco Rubio: 39,599 23%
I am not even bothering with the rest of the field as they are irrelevant.
Here is one for you.
Only 2,213 votes separate Mr. Trump from the Florida senator, Marco Rubio. While 99% of the votes are in and it is doubtful, it is a slight possibility that Sen. Rubio can overtake Mr. Trump for second place and more delegates. All three will have some delegates on the road to New Hampshire in one week.
There really is some Marcomentum as the last Real Clear Politics average had Sen. Rubio at 17% and he should finish with 23, maybe 24% of the vote. I hope that carries on to New Hampshire.
And what about the Donald?!
Maybe when all is said and done, two things will stand out.
One is that Mr. Trump should not have skipped that last debate this past Thursday night. And maybe, just maybe the whole Trump thing is overblown and we are settling into a race between Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio that still may go all the way to Cleveland.
Oh, and already the Cruz win has claimed a casualty as the former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, is calling it quits. Look for the Rev. Mike to endorse the Donald sometime this week.
The voters have spoken in Iowa and now, on to New Hampshire next week.
The big loser is . . .the Donald. Oh yeah, and probably Hilary Clinton as well.
What?! Mrs. Clinton?!
Well, as of this writing Mrs. Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are essentially tied at 50%. Some guy named Martin O'Malley who had not even polled a full percent may keep Sen. Sanders from victory. Oh yeah, and he dropped out of the race.
Stay tuned for that one.
On the GOP side, Sen. Cruz vanquished the gasbag from New York City, Donald J. Trump and with relative ease as well.
As of this writing, here is the total
Ted Cruz: 47,510 28%
Donald J. Trump: 41,812 24%
Marco Rubio: 39,599 23%
I am not even bothering with the rest of the field as they are irrelevant.
Here is one for you.
Only 2,213 votes separate Mr. Trump from the Florida senator, Marco Rubio. While 99% of the votes are in and it is doubtful, it is a slight possibility that Sen. Rubio can overtake Mr. Trump for second place and more delegates. All three will have some delegates on the road to New Hampshire in one week.
There really is some Marcomentum as the last Real Clear Politics average had Sen. Rubio at 17% and he should finish with 23, maybe 24% of the vote. I hope that carries on to New Hampshire.
And what about the Donald?!
Maybe when all is said and done, two things will stand out.
One is that Mr. Trump should not have skipped that last debate this past Thursday night. And maybe, just maybe the whole Trump thing is overblown and we are settling into a race between Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio that still may go all the way to Cleveland.
Oh, and already the Cruz win has claimed a casualty as the former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, is calling it quits. Look for the Rev. Mike to endorse the Donald sometime this week.
The voters have spoken in Iowa and now, on to New Hampshire next week.
The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus: It's On!
It all comes down to this as Iowa FINALLY goes to caucus and roughly about 150,000 Republicans will begin to clear the field as some voting begins.
Here is a good place to get up to the minute results for both the Democrats and the Republicans. For the Democrats, 44 convention delegates are up for grabs. The Republicans have 30 delegates at stake. For the GOP, it is not a winner-take-all and expect the top three finishers, whoever they may be, to walk away with delegates.
I will update later when results come in and we get a picture of who wins, places and shows for the GOP.
It's on!
Here is a good place to get up to the minute results for both the Democrats and the Republicans. For the Democrats, 44 convention delegates are up for grabs. The Republicans have 30 delegates at stake. For the GOP, it is not a winner-take-all and expect the top three finishers, whoever they may be, to walk away with delegates.
I will update later when results come in and we get a picture of who wins, places and shows for the GOP.
It's on!
The Iowa Caucus Is Really Almost Here
No really, in less than two hours of this post, the good Democrats and Republicans will finally caucus and the first votes of any kind in the 2016 presidential Death March campaign happen.
For Republicans and or conservatives, National Review's David French has an important article about what this voting cycle may mean for the parties and movement.
I tend to believe that what is happening is exactly a celebrity moment with Donald J. Trump. But it is a lot of Pat Buchanan as well. Somehow, a billionaire is leading the pitchfork rebellion against the establishment.
Nowadays, I guess I am part of that establishment because for one, I support Marco Rubio for president. And I don't think that there is anyway the United States will deport 11,00,000 illegal aliens or whatever the number is. Neither does Mr. Trump really believe that, but that is not the point of the piece by Mr. French.
There is about a quarter of the GOP that is tired, rightfully so, of being sold out by those they send back to Washington. The real indictment should be how much importance we have even been told that the nation's capital has become in our lives. That is not an issue to these folks and yet it should be. But at a level, conservative and or right-wing populism does not really make the size of government the real issue. Note that the Donald never talks about actually cutting the size and scope of the federal government. He will need that big government to round up the illegals and implement the tariffs he is proposing against Red China and all those that are "unfair" in international trade.
That is also a part of what is at stake in this election.
If you are in Iowa, read the link before you caucus and think long and hard if you want to send a message or back a candidate that will be able to implement real change.
For Republicans and or conservatives, National Review's David French has an important article about what this voting cycle may mean for the parties and movement.
I tend to believe that what is happening is exactly a celebrity moment with Donald J. Trump. But it is a lot of Pat Buchanan as well. Somehow, a billionaire is leading the pitchfork rebellion against the establishment.
Nowadays, I guess I am part of that establishment because for one, I support Marco Rubio for president. And I don't think that there is anyway the United States will deport 11,00,000 illegal aliens or whatever the number is. Neither does Mr. Trump really believe that, but that is not the point of the piece by Mr. French.
There is about a quarter of the GOP that is tired, rightfully so, of being sold out by those they send back to Washington. The real indictment should be how much importance we have even been told that the nation's capital has become in our lives. That is not an issue to these folks and yet it should be. But at a level, conservative and or right-wing populism does not really make the size of government the real issue. Note that the Donald never talks about actually cutting the size and scope of the federal government. He will need that big government to round up the illegals and implement the tariffs he is proposing against Red China and all those that are "unfair" in international trade.
That is also a part of what is at stake in this election.
If you are in Iowa, read the link before you caucus and think long and hard if you want to send a message or back a candidate that will be able to implement real change.
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