Last night was an earthquake for both the Democrat and Republican parties as two outsiders swept to victory in the persons of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Donald J. Trump in the New Hampshire presidential primaries.
I will just comment for the Democrats, there is no question that one Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She should win the nomination because of her dominance of the superdelegates. But make no mistake, Sen. Sanders and his brand of democratic socialism is finding an audience. There is no doubt that Sen. Sanders can and will win some more states. He will move Mrs. Clinton further to the left and the Democrat party as a whole that way. There is a civil war in the Democrat party and that can not be glossed over.
But this is Right View From The Left Coast and I will make extended thoughts on the Republican race.
And I will do so regarding each of the eight candidates that seriously competed in New Hampshire starting with the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary.
Donald J. Trump.
No question he won and won big. But make no mistake about it. in this case he got a lot of his 35% support from the undeclared or independent voters. Having said that, there is no question that Mr. Trump is the Pat Buchanan with money of this election cycle. He is saying that everything needs to be blown up in Washington and he is the one that can do it. Never mind that he offers little difference between himself and either of the two Democrats running for president. he is against the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll GOP establishment. And that is enough for about 30 to 35% of the GOP vote. Mr. Trump now has 17 delegates as the result of second place in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. Remember that 84% of the delegates are distributed by a form of proportional representation depending on the state. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all states. It will be important come convention time.
John Kasich.
Basically Gov. Kasich finished a distant second and that will do nothing to help him get more money and or endorsements. Gov Kasich will not win in South Carolina. I don't see anywhere he has any opening. He will try to hang on, but without a miracle in South Carolina and Nevada, where does he win on Super Tuesday? But he can keep going on until Super Tuesday and hope to accumulate more than the three delegates he got on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz.
Sen. Cruz ended up having a good night. No, really. He spent little time and money in New Hampshire and still managed a third place finish and two delegates. Adding to the eight that he won in Iowa and he is in second place with a total of 10 delegates. Sen. Cruz is probably going to finish in the top three in South Carolina and could win or come in second in Nevada. He is going to be battling Mr. Trump for the conservative and or anti-establishment GOP vote.
Jeb! Bush.
Mr. Bush should really stop already and get out of the race. But, alas, he will not and continue the delusion that he will somehow wrest the nomination. Even if this race ends up in a brokered convention, I do not think the establishment will force another and weakest of the Bush's down the throats of a GOP electorate that will keep people home. But last night, he and the Right To Rise super PAC spent $35,000,000 for a forth place finish and two delegates. Mr. Bush has the money to go through to Super Tuesday but he does not have the support of the GOP voters. This election cycle it is simple. The GOP voters are repeating a mantra. No More Bushes. And even without Donald Trump in this race, Mr. Bush would barely expand his extremely limited support.
Marco Rubio.
Clearly the disappointment of the night. No doubt that Chris Crispy's, er Christie's, interrogation of him proved effective in this past Saturday's debate. No doubt that some voters were turned off by Sen. Rubio falling into Gov. Christies trap. Some may think that he is part of the establishment when he has spent his career against the establishment. Yes, save for the Gang of Eight so-called comprehensive immigration "reform". I still support Sen. Rubio as the best hope against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. He is a conservative. And rather than run away from a bad performance, he owned it. Very big props for that. But he got no delegates and makes his path to Super Tuesday harder, it is not impossible. Look for Mr. Bush and Sen. Rubio to be duking it out in the next debate.
Chris Christie.
A loser and also one that staked his whole campaign on New Hampshire and finished in sixth place, no delegates. It appears that Gov. Christie is about to exit the race as reported by Politico. If that is the case, his only contribution would be to have thrown Marco Rubio off of his game. Maybe that is a good thing but as noted, timing is everything. We shall see if that is a long-lasting blow Gov. Christie delievered.
Carly Fiorina.
She got screwed, plain and simple. She was not given a slot in this past Saturday's presidential debate and should have. Lack of exposure on such a stage probably relegated her to this poor finish. Could she have done better if she was allowed to debate? Probably. While Mrs. Fiorina is still in the race, it is on life support and may change any day now.
Dr. Ben Carson.
I do not know if he is running a real campaign or trying to get some kind of book deal. The good doctor should not have run for president but a lot of people convinced him to do so and he has. But he finished a dismal two percent and really should think about exiting the race.
A broader thought that I had is that conservatives were the big loser in all of this. Mr. Trump is not running as a limited government constitutionalist but as a populist strongman. Gov. Kasich keeps prating on about taking care of the poor and not exactly opposed to Obamacare. It is clear that Gov. Kasich is running for the compassionate conservative vote and that will not fly with many GOP voters this time around. One can put Mr. Bush in that category as well. of the remaining contenders, only Sens. Cruz and Rubio seem to have a clue about limited government. As I write this, National Review just released this editorial lamenting the same thing.
One thing is for sure.
This battle has not ended in New Hampshire and it does look like a serious one for the immediate future. And this is why delegates matter this time around.
Showing posts with label Jeb! Bush. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeb! Bush. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
2016 New Hampshire GOP Primary - It's On!
The first in the nation primary in the 2016 GOP presidential Death March campaign is on in the state of New Hampshire and we already have some votes.
The voters of Dixville Notch voted 3 - 2 for the Ohio governor, John Kasich over businessman Donald J. Trump.
It does not amount to much of anything but it gives a sense of some of the voting that will take part in the rest of the state.
In your humble blogger's estimation, the polls are all over the place and will probably turn out to be wrong.
Right now, as he has throughout the campaign season, Donald J. Trump is in the lead., In fact if you look at the polling averages over at Real Clear Politics, the Donald has a solid lead over Florida senator, Marco Rubio, leading by about 17 points. I think that the candidate to watch for in terms of potential victory or a very strong second is the aforementioned Gov. Kasich. Gov. Kasich is literally staking it all on a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep his campaign going. As he will tell you, repeatedly, Gov. Kasich has done 106 town hall meetings. It is one of the reasons that Gov. Kasich did so badly in Iowa. What that means to me is that Gov. Kasich does not have the ability to mount a nationwide campaign unless it gets something going out of New Hampshire. Any less than a second place finish and I think that Gov. Kasich is all but done. Same for former Florida governor, Jeb Bush and New Jersey governor, Chris Crispy, er Chirstie.
By all accounts, ground game matters and many believe that Gov. Kasich has one of the best.
Well, how will they finish?
Here is my order of finish, no percentages:
John Kasich
Donald J. Trump
Marco Rubio
Jeb! Bush
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Yep, I think that Gov. Kasich can beat the Donald. But the reason that I do not put any percentages is because I think it will be a close log jam for the top four spots. I don't think whether Gov. Kasich or the Donald would win by much.
Again, like Iowa, this is a state in which the delegates will be awarded proportionally. So as many as five candidates will have some delegates going into the next race of consequence, South Carolina. The GOP primary will be on February 20.
If you are bored and want to read all about the race from the local level, go to the New Hampshire Union Leader. For results later, there is the New Hampshire secretary of state website.
One thing for sure is that New Hampshire will not settle anything in the GOP presidential field. Maybe one or two candidates will drop out. No one really knows for sure.
But one thing is certain.
It makes South Carolina even more important than many thought at the beginning of the campaign season.
The voters of Dixville Notch voted 3 - 2 for the Ohio governor, John Kasich over businessman Donald J. Trump.
It does not amount to much of anything but it gives a sense of some of the voting that will take part in the rest of the state.
In your humble blogger's estimation, the polls are all over the place and will probably turn out to be wrong.
Right now, as he has throughout the campaign season, Donald J. Trump is in the lead., In fact if you look at the polling averages over at Real Clear Politics, the Donald has a solid lead over Florida senator, Marco Rubio, leading by about 17 points. I think that the candidate to watch for in terms of potential victory or a very strong second is the aforementioned Gov. Kasich. Gov. Kasich is literally staking it all on a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep his campaign going. As he will tell you, repeatedly, Gov. Kasich has done 106 town hall meetings. It is one of the reasons that Gov. Kasich did so badly in Iowa. What that means to me is that Gov. Kasich does not have the ability to mount a nationwide campaign unless it gets something going out of New Hampshire. Any less than a second place finish and I think that Gov. Kasich is all but done. Same for former Florida governor, Jeb Bush and New Jersey governor, Chris Crispy, er Chirstie.
By all accounts, ground game matters and many believe that Gov. Kasich has one of the best.
Well, how will they finish?
Here is my order of finish, no percentages:
John Kasich
Donald J. Trump
Marco Rubio
Jeb! Bush
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Yep, I think that Gov. Kasich can beat the Donald. But the reason that I do not put any percentages is because I think it will be a close log jam for the top four spots. I don't think whether Gov. Kasich or the Donald would win by much.
Again, like Iowa, this is a state in which the delegates will be awarded proportionally. So as many as five candidates will have some delegates going into the next race of consequence, South Carolina. The GOP primary will be on February 20.
If you are bored and want to read all about the race from the local level, go to the New Hampshire Union Leader. For results later, there is the New Hampshire secretary of state website.
One thing for sure is that New Hampshire will not settle anything in the GOP presidential field. Maybe one or two candidates will drop out. No one really knows for sure.
But one thing is certain.
It makes South Carolina even more important than many thought at the beginning of the campaign season.
Tuesday, October 06, 2015
Is This Good Stewardship?!
I will just say that this is a perplexing tale of politics and religion that make me as the headline question.
According to this article, the former Florida governor and GOP presidential candidate, John Ellis Jeb! Bush, charged St. Martin's Episcopal church $50,000 for a speech a year ago September and it was on . . .stewardship.
This is what a church does to encourage people to give money and or more money?!
Let me write this.
If my church spent that kind of money to encourage people to give more money to pay for the functions of the church and it's outreach ministries, we would probably recall our vestry, the governing board, and ask for our rector and or priest-in-charge to be removed.
You have to understand that St. Martin's Episcopal Church, Houston, is the largest and one of the wealthiest churches in The Episcopal Church. It has some of the cream of the crop of the Houston establishment as members including former President George H. W. Bush and his wife, Barbara. And Mr. Bush's top long-time crony, James A. Baker. That is just the political establishment. You get the picture that this is high-end folks.
There is no doubt in my mind that this church could have found something more worthy than lining the pockets of the then future Republican presidential candidate.
I do agree that it takes money to make money, but giving one's time, talent and or money for one's church is not the same thing.
People will do the above if they believe in what the church has done, is doing and will be doing in the future. Yes, there needs to be encouragement, but to spend $50,000 to encourage people to give more to a church seems strange. And to giving to a son of a particular parish as is Jeb! Bush just has cheese written all over it.
I have been to many a stewardship dinner in my 23+ years at my Episcopal church and the most exciting, if one can say that, was held at a private country club. Probably paid for by the member and used as a tax write off as a charitable contribution. Not a give me $50,000 and I might give some of it back.
The Episcopal Church is not a "tithing" church in the sense that everyone is expected to give a tenth of their income, based on the Holy Bible, but more what they can and when they can not, use one's time and or talent in such a way that can be beneficial to the particular parish. Many a communicant/congregant do give a tenth of their salary to the church. Some more, some less and some can't give money at all.
The best way of encouragement I have found are the personal stories of those that have been touched in a positive way by the church's ministries. It is knowing that which has made us dig deep to pledge more than we might have in the past.
But to be honest, Mrs. RVFTLC and I would really have a hard time with a famous person speaking at a stewardship dinner and making off with a speaking fee as if this was just another notch of speaking fees. Which I think in any other setting is cool. If any group and or organization wants to pay a fixed fee for any famous person to speak, mazeltov.
But the cheese factor in which Jeb! Bush charges a HIGHER speaking fee from a church is, well disgusting.
That, to me, is not good stewardship. Even if the church can afford it.
This is but one more reason I do not find Jeb! Bush an attractive candidate for president.
H/T: Jeff Bradshaw.
According to this article, the former Florida governor and GOP presidential candidate, John Ellis Jeb! Bush, charged St. Martin's Episcopal church $50,000 for a speech a year ago September and it was on . . .stewardship.
This is what a church does to encourage people to give money and or more money?!
Let me write this.
If my church spent that kind of money to encourage people to give more money to pay for the functions of the church and it's outreach ministries, we would probably recall our vestry, the governing board, and ask for our rector and or priest-in-charge to be removed.
You have to understand that St. Martin's Episcopal Church, Houston, is the largest and one of the wealthiest churches in The Episcopal Church. It has some of the cream of the crop of the Houston establishment as members including former President George H. W. Bush and his wife, Barbara. And Mr. Bush's top long-time crony, James A. Baker. That is just the political establishment. You get the picture that this is high-end folks.
There is no doubt in my mind that this church could have found something more worthy than lining the pockets of the then future Republican presidential candidate.
I do agree that it takes money to make money, but giving one's time, talent and or money for one's church is not the same thing.
People will do the above if they believe in what the church has done, is doing and will be doing in the future. Yes, there needs to be encouragement, but to spend $50,000 to encourage people to give more to a church seems strange. And to giving to a son of a particular parish as is Jeb! Bush just has cheese written all over it.
I have been to many a stewardship dinner in my 23+ years at my Episcopal church and the most exciting, if one can say that, was held at a private country club. Probably paid for by the member and used as a tax write off as a charitable contribution. Not a give me $50,000 and I might give some of it back.
The Episcopal Church is not a "tithing" church in the sense that everyone is expected to give a tenth of their income, based on the Holy Bible, but more what they can and when they can not, use one's time and or talent in such a way that can be beneficial to the particular parish. Many a communicant/congregant do give a tenth of their salary to the church. Some more, some less and some can't give money at all.
The best way of encouragement I have found are the personal stories of those that have been touched in a positive way by the church's ministries. It is knowing that which has made us dig deep to pledge more than we might have in the past.
But to be honest, Mrs. RVFTLC and I would really have a hard time with a famous person speaking at a stewardship dinner and making off with a speaking fee as if this was just another notch of speaking fees. Which I think in any other setting is cool. If any group and or organization wants to pay a fixed fee for any famous person to speak, mazeltov.
But the cheese factor in which Jeb! Bush charges a HIGHER speaking fee from a church is, well disgusting.
That, to me, is not good stewardship. Even if the church can afford it.
This is but one more reason I do not find Jeb! Bush an attractive candidate for president.
H/T: Jeff Bradshaw.
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