Nevada Caucus-It's On!

Right now the Republican voters of Nevada are going to caucus for either Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio or Donald J. Trump.
It will be a late night back East for the caucus does not close until 9pm Pacific Standard Time. Turnout is supposed to be about 10% and the unreliable polling does show the Donald far ahead. But Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are putting in a serious effort here. It is the last test for all the candidates before the 13-state Super Tuesday primary a week from today.
Since I am a partisan in this, I urge all Nevada Republicans to show up and caucus for Sen. Rubio.
There will be a separate post about results as they come in. If you can't wait, here is a page for up to the minute results. 

Thoughts On New Hampshire

Last night was an earthquake for both the Democrat and Republican parties as two outsiders swept to victory in the persons of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Donald J. Trump in the New Hampshire presidential primaries.
I will just comment for the Democrats, there is no question that one Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She should win the nomination because of her dominance of the superdelegates. But make no mistake, Sen. Sanders and his brand of democratic socialism is finding an audience. There is no doubt that Sen. Sanders can and will win some more states. He will move Mrs. Clinton further to the left and the Democrat party as a whole that way. There is a civil war in the Democrat party and that can not be glossed over.
But this is Right View From The Left Coast and I will make extended thoughts on the Republican race.
And I will do so regarding each of the eight candidates that seriously competed in New Hampshire starting with the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary.

Donald J. Trump.
No question he won and won big. But make no mistake about it. in this case he got a lot of his 35% support from the undeclared or independent voters. Having said that, there is no question that Mr. Trump is the Pat Buchanan with money of this election cycle. He is saying that everything needs to be blown up in Washington and he is the one that can do it. Never mind that he offers little difference between himself and either of the two Democrats running for president. he is against the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll GOP establishment. And that is enough for about 30 to 35% of the GOP vote. Mr. Trump now has 17 delegates as the result of second place in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. Remember that 84% of the delegates are distributed by a form of proportional representation depending on the state. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all states. It will be important come convention time.

John Kasich.
Basically Gov. Kasich finished a distant second and that will do nothing to help him get more money and or endorsements. Gov Kasich will not win in South Carolina. I don't see anywhere he has any opening. He will try to hang on, but without a miracle in South Carolina and Nevada, where does he win on Super Tuesday? But he can keep going on until Super Tuesday and hope to accumulate more than the three delegates he got on Tuesday.

Ted Cruz.
Sen. Cruz ended up having a good night. No, really. He spent little time and money in New Hampshire and still managed a third place finish and two delegates. Adding to the eight that he won in Iowa and he is in second place with a total of 10 delegates. Sen. Cruz is probably going to finish in the top three in South Carolina and could win or come in second in Nevada. He is going to be battling Mr. Trump for the conservative and or anti-establishment GOP vote.

Jeb! Bush.
Mr. Bush should really stop already and get out of the race. But, alas, he will not and continue the delusion that he will somehow wrest the nomination. Even if this race ends up in a brokered convention, I do not think the establishment will force another and weakest of the Bush's down the throats of a GOP electorate that will keep people home. But last night, he and the Right To Rise super PAC spent $35,000,000 for a forth place finish and two delegates. Mr. Bush has the money to go through to Super Tuesday but he does not have the support of the GOP voters. This election cycle it is simple. The GOP voters are repeating a mantra. No More Bushes. And even without Donald Trump in this race, Mr. Bush would barely expand his extremely limited support.

Marco Rubio.
Clearly the disappointment of the night. No doubt that Chris Crispy's, er Christie's, interrogation of him proved effective in this past Saturday's debate. No doubt that some voters were turned off by Sen. Rubio falling into Gov. Christies trap. Some may think that he is part of the establishment when he has spent his career against the establishment. Yes, save for the Gang of Eight so-called comprehensive immigration "reform". I still support Sen. Rubio as the best hope against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. He is a conservative. And rather than run away from a bad performance, he owned it. Very big props for that. But he got no delegates and makes his path to Super Tuesday harder, it is not impossible. Look for Mr. Bush and Sen. Rubio to be duking it out in the next debate.

Chris Christie.
A loser and also one that staked his whole campaign on New Hampshire and finished in sixth place, no delegates. It appears that Gov. Christie is about to exit the race as reported by Politico. If that is the case, his only contribution would be to have thrown Marco Rubio off of his game. Maybe that is a good thing but as noted, timing is everything. We shall see if that is a long-lasting blow Gov. Christie delievered.

Carly Fiorina.
She got screwed, plain and simple. She was not given a slot in this past Saturday's presidential debate and should have. Lack of exposure on such a stage probably relegated her to this poor finish. Could she have done better if she was allowed to debate? Probably. While Mrs. Fiorina is still in the race, it is on life support and may change any day now.

Dr. Ben Carson.
I do not know if he is running a real campaign or trying to get some kind of book deal. The good doctor should not have run for president but a lot of people convinced him to do so and he has. But he finished a dismal two percent and really should think about exiting the race.

A broader thought that I had is that conservatives were the big loser in all of this. Mr. Trump is not running as a limited government constitutionalist but as a populist strongman. Gov. Kasich keeps prating on about taking care of the poor and not exactly opposed to Obamacare. It is clear that Gov. Kasich is running for the compassionate conservative vote and that will not fly with many GOP voters this time around. One can put Mr. Bush in that category as well. of the remaining contenders, only Sens. Cruz and Rubio seem to have a clue about limited government. As I write this, National Review just released this editorial lamenting the same thing.
One thing is for sure.
This battle has not ended in New Hampshire and it does look like a serious one for the immediate future. And this is why delegates matter this time around.

Is The Donald's Mouth Going To Finally Run Him Out Of The Presidential Race?

Good Lord in heaven, these posts about Donald J. Trump pretty much write themselves.

But in the Donald's latest salvo, check that salvos, against fellow GOP candidates is it finally too much for most people?
To the Trumpettes, nope.

To them the Donald is speaking truth. Weird truth to most people, but to the Trumpettes it's truth. 

The Donald took on not one "fellow" Republican presidential candidate but two in the persons of fellow outsiders Dr. Ben Carson and former Hewlitt-Packard CEO, Carly Fiorina. 

In an article from the Rolling Stone magazine, the Donald, as is his wont, did not take on Mrs. Fiorina on substantive policy issues but, I can't believe that I am writing this, her face. Directly from the Rolling Stone article on the Donald:

Trump's expression sours in schoolboy disgust as the camera bores in on Fiorina. "Look at that face!" he cries. "Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of the next president?!" The laughter grows halting and faint behind him. "I mean, she's a woman and I'm not s'posdta say bad things, but really, folks, come on. Are we serious?"

So let me say that yes, I sure would vote for Mrs. Fiorina for president. And not based on her face for crying out loud but because I think she is strong without being annoying. She has expressed conservative thinking clearly. 

But the Donald, he was not done by a long shot. 

Dr. Ben Carson was asked a question about the Donald's faith and he answered this way:

"By humility and a fear of the Lord are riches and honor and life. And that's a very big part of who I am, humility and fear of the Lord. I don't get that impression with him (Trump). Maybe I'm wrong but I don't get that impression. Probably the biggest thing is that I realized where my success has come from. And I don't in any way deny my faith in God. And I think that is a big difference here. 

So, Dr. Carson in his understated way somewhat finally said something critical of the current GOP front runner. 

I think you know that this will not end well for Dr. Carson.

"But I don't know Dr. Carson, perhaps-you-know-and okay doctor . . .we're not talking great-he was an okay doctor. And now because he is a doctor and hired one nurse, he's going to end up being president of the United States? For him to read the Bible from memory, it looked like he memorized it about two minutes before he went on stage. Look at his faith and your not going to find so much. And you look at his views on abortion and they were horrendous, and that's why I'm leading with all the evangelicals. I'm leading Ben Carson by a lot I'm almost double his numbers."

WOW! Where, oh where do I start to dismantle this pant load of crap from the Donald. 

Let's see, this okay doc was a professor of neurosurgery, oncology, plastic surgery and pediatrics. And the okay doc only specialized in traumatic brain injuries, spinal cord injuries and several other things that I have never heard of. And the highlight of Dr. Carson's career, an okay career, was separating conjoined twins at the back of the head. 

Not too bad for an okay doc who probably hired a nurse. 

As far as Dr. Carson and his faith, he has been a committed Christian for quite a while now. And he at least can cite a biblical verse. The Donald can not cite one. Not even the most well known of all, John 3:16. Unlike the Donald, Dr. Carson is a student of the Holy Bible. 

Yes, Dr. Carson did some things in regard to fetal tissue research that he truly regrets (which means that he, unlike the Donald, asked the Lord for forgiveness of what he came to recognize as a sin). 

And what awesomeness has the Donald done? Use the government to throw people off their property by eminent domain to buttress his real estate fortune. 

Yeah, that was a wee bit sarcastic. But the point is if the Donald is comfortable in his own skin, he does not need to answer any or perceived slight by his opponents. Run on the record. Oops! My bad! The Donald does have a record that he is trying to run away from. 

So I read Ace's view over at Ace of Spades and, remember this is Ace so there is colorful language and imagery, and he pretty much nails the reasons that the Donald may have or is about to peak. Ace reminds us, much to the chagrin of the Trumpettes, that we are not so angry that we would actually elect Donald J. Trump. Maybe, and I do not concur, the Donald can win the GOP nomination, but not the general election. 

Allahpundit over at Hot Air points out that the Fiorina comments will hurt more among women. Like it or not, the Donald has to win some women over among a lot of other groups. If he keeps looking at women as bimbos or ugly, what support he does have among women may begin to break. 

Which leads to this conclusion of your humble blogger. 

While according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls has the Donald at about 30%, how much of that will actually vote for the Donald? I think that is probably a lot softer than anyone realizes. There is a difference with liking the idea of the Donald and the reality that even on his signature issue, illegal immigration, he will be hamstrung by a reluctant congress and an overtaxed federal court system. His overall incoherence on issue after issue will also hurt unless he really starts talking policy. Then he will bore people to be honest. Which is probably why, as the Rolling Stone article says and the former Trump strategist, Roger Stone said, he is not really interested in policy. 

The reality is that yes, the Donald's mouth is going to eventually either run him out of the GOP race or to crushing defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire at the hands of the best ABT-Anyone But Trump-candidate or candidates. And it can't come soon enough.