Last night the voters spoke in Iowa and delivered victories to Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz.
In terms of delegates, both winners simply received the majority of, not all. Thus Sen. Cruz ended up with eight delegates. Second place finisher, Donald J. Trump, and third place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio ended up with seven delegates each. On the Democrat side, Mrs. Clinton gets 23 delegates and her opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders will get 21 delegates.
A lot of criticism is thrown Iowa's way (as well as New Hampshire) being the first in the nation to vote in the respected party primaries. I think that they are good states to see how a candidate can deal with organization. Clearly Sen. Cruz out hustled all the other Republican candidates. His team singled out the state's conservative, evangelical Christian voters and Sen. Cruz scored their votes. Like it or not, the Donald did not take the old fashioned retail politicking and organization seriously and it showed. Also, sorry but skipping the last debate before the caucus did not help. No matter what excuse the Donald uses to not participate in the debate, many caucus participants said that eventually determined their vote. And who would have thought Marco Rubio would have had such a strong third-place finish looking at the polls?
As I noted last night, clearly there was something called Marcomentum that catapulted Sen. Rubio to nearly a huge upset and forcing the Donald to a potential third place finish. That is breathing life into a campaign that really needs it.
Ted Cruz went one way too long in his victory speech. And while his religious references did not bother me, I thought about the rest of the nation and places that would be totally turned off by such overt Christianity. Sen. Cruz will have to find a way to be less evangelical Christian preacher and more able to really expand the base of his support to those people he, and I, believe he needs to win a general election campaign. We will see if Sen. Cruz can pivot in much more secular New Hampshire.
Donald J. Trump has to begin to take this campaign seriously if he is really in it to win it. The Donald will have to spend real money for organization and broadcast advertising. And he will have to participate in debates no matter what.
Marco Rubio needs to continue to build on the Marcomentum and get to second place in New Hampshire, simple as that.
For the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton has to be humiliated that she could not put Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed "democratic" socialist, away in Iowa. I will say it now. The Democrats are that far to the left that I will not be surprised if Sen. Sanders ends up the Democrat nominee. What we are seeing is the left-wing crack up and the end of the Obama coalition. And the only saving grace for Mrs. Clinton is the whole Super-delegates that are there to guarantee an "establishment" candidate wins the nomination. We shall see but there is no doubt Mrs. Clinton is going to lose badly to the senator from next-door Vermont next Tuesday.
The funny thing about all of this is that it has not made the race any easier for either political party. It is all still up in the air. And maybe for a while.
Showing posts with label 2016 Iowa Republican caucus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 Iowa Republican caucus. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Monday, February 01, 2016
CRUZ WINS IOWA
Texas senator Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are the projected winners according to the Ace of Spades Decision Desk.
The big loser is . . .the Donald. Oh yeah, and probably Hilary Clinton as well.
What?! Mrs. Clinton?!
Well, as of this writing Mrs. Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are essentially tied at 50%. Some guy named Martin O'Malley who had not even polled a full percent may keep Sen. Sanders from victory. Oh yeah, and he dropped out of the race.
Stay tuned for that one.
On the GOP side, Sen. Cruz vanquished the gasbag from New York City, Donald J. Trump and with relative ease as well.
As of this writing, here is the total
Ted Cruz: 47,510 28%
Donald J. Trump: 41,812 24%
Marco Rubio: 39,599 23%
I am not even bothering with the rest of the field as they are irrelevant.
Here is one for you.
Only 2,213 votes separate Mr. Trump from the Florida senator, Marco Rubio. While 99% of the votes are in and it is doubtful, it is a slight possibility that Sen. Rubio can overtake Mr. Trump for second place and more delegates. All three will have some delegates on the road to New Hampshire in one week.
There really is some Marcomentum as the last Real Clear Politics average had Sen. Rubio at 17% and he should finish with 23, maybe 24% of the vote. I hope that carries on to New Hampshire.
And what about the Donald?!
Maybe when all is said and done, two things will stand out.
One is that Mr. Trump should not have skipped that last debate this past Thursday night. And maybe, just maybe the whole Trump thing is overblown and we are settling into a race between Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio that still may go all the way to Cleveland.
Oh, and already the Cruz win has claimed a casualty as the former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, is calling it quits. Look for the Rev. Mike to endorse the Donald sometime this week.
The voters have spoken in Iowa and now, on to New Hampshire next week.
The big loser is . . .the Donald. Oh yeah, and probably Hilary Clinton as well.
What?! Mrs. Clinton?!
Well, as of this writing Mrs. Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are essentially tied at 50%. Some guy named Martin O'Malley who had not even polled a full percent may keep Sen. Sanders from victory. Oh yeah, and he dropped out of the race.
Stay tuned for that one.
On the GOP side, Sen. Cruz vanquished the gasbag from New York City, Donald J. Trump and with relative ease as well.
As of this writing, here is the total
Ted Cruz: 47,510 28%
Donald J. Trump: 41,812 24%
Marco Rubio: 39,599 23%
I am not even bothering with the rest of the field as they are irrelevant.
Here is one for you.
Only 2,213 votes separate Mr. Trump from the Florida senator, Marco Rubio. While 99% of the votes are in and it is doubtful, it is a slight possibility that Sen. Rubio can overtake Mr. Trump for second place and more delegates. All three will have some delegates on the road to New Hampshire in one week.
There really is some Marcomentum as the last Real Clear Politics average had Sen. Rubio at 17% and he should finish with 23, maybe 24% of the vote. I hope that carries on to New Hampshire.
And what about the Donald?!
Maybe when all is said and done, two things will stand out.
One is that Mr. Trump should not have skipped that last debate this past Thursday night. And maybe, just maybe the whole Trump thing is overblown and we are settling into a race between Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio that still may go all the way to Cleveland.
Oh, and already the Cruz win has claimed a casualty as the former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, is calling it quits. Look for the Rev. Mike to endorse the Donald sometime this week.
The voters have spoken in Iowa and now, on to New Hampshire next week.
The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus: It's On!
It all comes down to this as Iowa FINALLY goes to caucus and roughly about 150,000 Republicans will begin to clear the field as some voting begins.
Here is a good place to get up to the minute results for both the Democrats and the Republicans. For the Democrats, 44 convention delegates are up for grabs. The Republicans have 30 delegates at stake. For the GOP, it is not a winner-take-all and expect the top three finishers, whoever they may be, to walk away with delegates.
I will update later when results come in and we get a picture of who wins, places and shows for the GOP.
It's on!
Here is a good place to get up to the minute results for both the Democrats and the Republicans. For the Democrats, 44 convention delegates are up for grabs. The Republicans have 30 delegates at stake. For the GOP, it is not a winner-take-all and expect the top three finishers, whoever they may be, to walk away with delegates.
I will update later when results come in and we get a picture of who wins, places and shows for the GOP.
It's on!
The Iowa Caucus Is Really Almost Here
No really, in less than two hours of this post, the good Democrats and Republicans will finally caucus and the first votes of any kind in the 2016 presidential Death March campaign happen.
For Republicans and or conservatives, National Review's David French has an important article about what this voting cycle may mean for the parties and movement.
I tend to believe that what is happening is exactly a celebrity moment with Donald J. Trump. But it is a lot of Pat Buchanan as well. Somehow, a billionaire is leading the pitchfork rebellion against the establishment.
Nowadays, I guess I am part of that establishment because for one, I support Marco Rubio for president. And I don't think that there is anyway the United States will deport 11,00,000 illegal aliens or whatever the number is. Neither does Mr. Trump really believe that, but that is not the point of the piece by Mr. French.
There is about a quarter of the GOP that is tired, rightfully so, of being sold out by those they send back to Washington. The real indictment should be how much importance we have even been told that the nation's capital has become in our lives. That is not an issue to these folks and yet it should be. But at a level, conservative and or right-wing populism does not really make the size of government the real issue. Note that the Donald never talks about actually cutting the size and scope of the federal government. He will need that big government to round up the illegals and implement the tariffs he is proposing against Red China and all those that are "unfair" in international trade.
That is also a part of what is at stake in this election.
If you are in Iowa, read the link before you caucus and think long and hard if you want to send a message or back a candidate that will be able to implement real change.
For Republicans and or conservatives, National Review's David French has an important article about what this voting cycle may mean for the parties and movement.
I tend to believe that what is happening is exactly a celebrity moment with Donald J. Trump. But it is a lot of Pat Buchanan as well. Somehow, a billionaire is leading the pitchfork rebellion against the establishment.
Nowadays, I guess I am part of that establishment because for one, I support Marco Rubio for president. And I don't think that there is anyway the United States will deport 11,00,000 illegal aliens or whatever the number is. Neither does Mr. Trump really believe that, but that is not the point of the piece by Mr. French.
There is about a quarter of the GOP that is tired, rightfully so, of being sold out by those they send back to Washington. The real indictment should be how much importance we have even been told that the nation's capital has become in our lives. That is not an issue to these folks and yet it should be. But at a level, conservative and or right-wing populism does not really make the size of government the real issue. Note that the Donald never talks about actually cutting the size and scope of the federal government. He will need that big government to round up the illegals and implement the tariffs he is proposing against Red China and all those that are "unfair" in international trade.
That is also a part of what is at stake in this election.
If you are in Iowa, read the link before you caucus and think long and hard if you want to send a message or back a candidate that will be able to implement real change.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
The Des Moines Register Poll Has Good News For The Top 3
This really is it folks as the last The Des Moines Register poll before Monday's caucus just came out a while ago.
And while it does show Donald J. Trump in the lead with 28%, Sen. Ted Cruz is not far behind at 23% and trailing in third place is Sen. Marco Rubio with 15%. Which means that all should get some of the 30 delegates up for grabs in this state.
Each of the top three candidates can point to some good news for their team.
For the Donald, his support is the most solid at 71%. And 50% think that the Donald will actually be feared by foreign leaders the most. But the downside is that many feel the Donald is not the most knowledgeable or will be respected by friends of the United States.
In regard to Sen. Cruz, he has a higher enthusiasm rating to be the GOP nominee compared to the Donald. Sen. Cruz is in positive territory at 56% while the Donald is at 44%. Sen. Rubio leads that field at 58%. Se. Cruz also is sky-high in favorability ratings at 65% compared to the Donald's 50%. Sen. Cruz is also strong as a second choice at 17% while the Donald only manages a seven percent second choice in a caucus where people can and do change their minds at the last minute.
The good news for Sen. Rubio is that people would be very inclined to be with him if he ends up winning the GOP nod with 58% of those voters. And Sen. Rubio has strong favorability rating at 70%. The problem for Sen. Rubio is that it has not translated to potential votes in the caucus.
This is usually the most reliable of the polls and does not change my prediction that Sen. Ted Cruz will win the caucus, Donald J. Trump will come in second and Sen. Marco Rubio third.
In less than 48 hours we will finally see the voting begin and the hand wringing fire up on all sides.
NOTE:
I typed in the wrong numbers of the poll results. I have corrected that error.
And while it does show Donald J. Trump in the lead with 28%, Sen. Ted Cruz is not far behind at 23% and trailing in third place is Sen. Marco Rubio with 15%. Which means that all should get some of the 30 delegates up for grabs in this state.
Each of the top three candidates can point to some good news for their team.
For the Donald, his support is the most solid at 71%. And 50% think that the Donald will actually be feared by foreign leaders the most. But the downside is that many feel the Donald is not the most knowledgeable or will be respected by friends of the United States.
In regard to Sen. Cruz, he has a higher enthusiasm rating to be the GOP nominee compared to the Donald. Sen. Cruz is in positive territory at 56% while the Donald is at 44%. Sen. Rubio leads that field at 58%. Se. Cruz also is sky-high in favorability ratings at 65% compared to the Donald's 50%. Sen. Cruz is also strong as a second choice at 17% while the Donald only manages a seven percent second choice in a caucus where people can and do change their minds at the last minute.
The good news for Sen. Rubio is that people would be very inclined to be with him if he ends up winning the GOP nod with 58% of those voters. And Sen. Rubio has strong favorability rating at 70%. The problem for Sen. Rubio is that it has not translated to potential votes in the caucus.
This is usually the most reliable of the polls and does not change my prediction that Sen. Ted Cruz will win the caucus, Donald J. Trump will come in second and Sen. Marco Rubio third.
In less than 48 hours we will finally see the voting begin and the hand wringing fire up on all sides.
NOTE:
I typed in the wrong numbers of the poll results. I have corrected that error.
Iowa 2016 Republican Edition
Monday is the big day as the Iowa voters finally will caucus and get the GOP presidential nomination show on the road.
This is a helpful guide as to how the caucus actually works. It is not a primary and is somewhat byzantine in how delegates are eventually chosen. One thing that it is not is a winner-take-all caucus. Delegates are chosen based on the percentage of votes any given candidate receives. Thus More than likely the top three finishers will walk away with delegates and possibly power at a possibly brokered GOP convention in Cleveland later this year.
One bit of digression that is important to note is that most states in the past were winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Not this time. A full 84% of the delegates will be chosen by a form of proportional representation. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Thus it is possible that fewer candidates will simply drop out as in the past. It is possible that it could be a three-way race all the way to Cleveland and no one candidate will have the 1,237 delegates needed for a first-ballot victory. It is possible no one will be close enough in the end.
So back to Iowa.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, yes Donald J. Trump still leads all candidates with 31% of the vote. Texas senator Ted Cruz is a strong second with 25% and Florida senator Marco Rubio is a surging third place with about 14%. The rest of those still standing are in the single digits.
But history shows, and this year is no exception, that as much as 40% of the people who will actually caucus can change their minds right up to caucus night.
What does that mean?
Well, it possibly hurts the Donald more than anyone. Since he decided to skip the last debate this past Thursday and host a hastily-staged support for veteran-themed event, the potential caucus goers do not like that disrespect. It was something that Ronald Reagan regretted when he skipped the last Iowa debate in 1980. Mr. Reagan lost and it lead to the eventual sacking of his campaign manager, John Sears. That is something when people point that out to defend the Donald and his decision to bail because he could not take Fox News channel's Megan Kelly and her possible pointed questions that he might actually have to answer.
Not having the Donald on the debate stage helped all of the candidates. But probably helped Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb! Bush more than the others.
There is a school of thought that a serious caucus attender will have heard all of the candidates at least once in person during this Death March of a campaign season. They make up their mind and then get to the caucus site and hear all those from the different campaigns and some just change their mind right there on the spot. While 40% seems to be a high number, it is the way that a caucus works. Yeah, it is a little messy but truly democracy in action.
What do I think will happen on Monday night?
It will be a nail-biter but I think that Sen. Cruz will finish first. Then it is the battle for the scraps and that will be between the Donald and Sen. Rubio. My guess is that Sen. Rubio could easily surge to second place based on the past. But more than likely the Donald will finish second and Sen. Rubio a very strong third. The rest? Well, it won't matter except for Jeb! and his millions that he can stay in hoping that there will be a dreaded brokered convention.
Then it is on to New Hampshire only a week later.
The 2016 presidential Death March campaign is finally going to the caucus goers and the voters and not a moment too soon.
This is a helpful guide as to how the caucus actually works. It is not a primary and is somewhat byzantine in how delegates are eventually chosen. One thing that it is not is a winner-take-all caucus. Delegates are chosen based on the percentage of votes any given candidate receives. Thus More than likely the top three finishers will walk away with delegates and possibly power at a possibly brokered GOP convention in Cleveland later this year.
One bit of digression that is important to note is that most states in the past were winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Not this time. A full 84% of the delegates will be chosen by a form of proportional representation. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Thus it is possible that fewer candidates will simply drop out as in the past. It is possible that it could be a three-way race all the way to Cleveland and no one candidate will have the 1,237 delegates needed for a first-ballot victory. It is possible no one will be close enough in the end.
So back to Iowa.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, yes Donald J. Trump still leads all candidates with 31% of the vote. Texas senator Ted Cruz is a strong second with 25% and Florida senator Marco Rubio is a surging third place with about 14%. The rest of those still standing are in the single digits.
But history shows, and this year is no exception, that as much as 40% of the people who will actually caucus can change their minds right up to caucus night.
What does that mean?
Well, it possibly hurts the Donald more than anyone. Since he decided to skip the last debate this past Thursday and host a hastily-staged support for veteran-themed event, the potential caucus goers do not like that disrespect. It was something that Ronald Reagan regretted when he skipped the last Iowa debate in 1980. Mr. Reagan lost and it lead to the eventual sacking of his campaign manager, John Sears. That is something when people point that out to defend the Donald and his decision to bail because he could not take Fox News channel's Megan Kelly and her possible pointed questions that he might actually have to answer.
Not having the Donald on the debate stage helped all of the candidates. But probably helped Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb! Bush more than the others.
There is a school of thought that a serious caucus attender will have heard all of the candidates at least once in person during this Death March of a campaign season. They make up their mind and then get to the caucus site and hear all those from the different campaigns and some just change their mind right there on the spot. While 40% seems to be a high number, it is the way that a caucus works. Yeah, it is a little messy but truly democracy in action.
What do I think will happen on Monday night?
It will be a nail-biter but I think that Sen. Cruz will finish first. Then it is the battle for the scraps and that will be between the Donald and Sen. Rubio. My guess is that Sen. Rubio could easily surge to second place based on the past. But more than likely the Donald will finish second and Sen. Rubio a very strong third. The rest? Well, it won't matter except for Jeb! and his millions that he can stay in hoping that there will be a dreaded brokered convention.
Then it is on to New Hampshire only a week later.
The 2016 presidential Death March campaign is finally going to the caucus goers and the voters and not a moment too soon.
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