Monday, February 27, 2012

Arizona And Michigan For The GOP Will Be A Split Decision

Tomorrow Republican voters in Arizona and Michigan will go to the polls and vote in their respective primaries.
And your humble blogger sees a split decision in tomorrow's results.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney will win in Arizona. And probably with ease.
But, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum will pull off the upset in Michigan and that will be a lot closer.
In fact if we look at the Real Clear Politics average for Michigan, it appears that Mr. Romney has about a 1.5 percent average lead in polls. That is well within the margin of error and I think Michigan's results could go on a long time tomorrow night. Think of Iowa earlier this year. And the same result will probably occur and that is a Rick Santorum win.
The odds are with Mr. Santorum for one reason. His appeal to blue collar voters. And maybe Team Romney can think that is not all that important, but come general election time, he will need to convince those voters to stay in the R column if he is the nominee.
And yes, in another lifetime, Mr. Romney's dad, George Romney, was governor, but that was a different time and a lifetime ago. I am afraid it will not help Mr. Romney this time.
In Arizona, it looks like clear sailing. Again, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Mr. Romney has a 13-point lead.
And I do think that the endorsement of Arizona governor Jan Brewer is a plus that will help Mr. Romney on this border state.
So at the end of the evening, it will be a wash. But, if Mr. Romney does win Arizona, it is a winner-take-all state. And that is 46 delegates. If Mr. Santorum wins Michigan, he has to win big and all over because it is not a winner-take-all state. In fact, a close result could end up still being a sort of win for Mr. Romney because of the allocation of delegates.
So what is going to happen is look for this race to continue at least until next Tuesday. And that is Super Tuesday.
A split decision will insure that this does not end anytime soon.

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