Saturday, December 10, 2011

Can Rick Santorum Mess Everyone's Plans In Iowa?

While all the media, conservative and leftywhore, are zeroing in on making the GOP presidential nomination a two-man race, can I throw a monkey wrench in that?
All media seems to be narrowing down the Republican field to the former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, and the former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich.
The two states that start off the actual primary caucus season are Iowa and New Hampshire.
Iowans get to caucus first on January 3, 2012 closely followed by New Hampshire on January 10, 2012.
So, Mr. Gingrich is leading Mr. Romney in both states.
But, there is a vast difference between the two states.
In Iowa, the state Republicans are conservative. And much more religious. The Evangelical Christian community especially in Western Iowa holds a lot of clout.
Only one candidate running has actually visited all of Iowa's 99 counties.
That candidate is the former Pennsylvania senator, Rick Santorum.
Because the caucus system basically is free-for-all and based on a majority of groups, Mr. Santorum is banking on taking the traditional approach and doing the retail politics of meet and greet.
Not that the two others, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney are not. But not the way that Mr. Santorum has.
Sure, Mr. Santorum has been essentially shut out of the debates sponsored by and moderated by the leftywhore media. But when he does get the 30 second attempt at an answer, he is very sharp and focused.
One other thing that the media seems to not grasp is that Mr. Santorum's very strong stands on social issues can only help him with this group of voters. Just ask the Rev. Mike Huckabee. It sure helped him in 2008. It all but ended the Mitt Romney train.
Almost all Iowa polling shows Mr. Santorum in mid single-digits. But again, the caucus way is different from the primary way of voting. It is all about organization. It is also all about what candidate will appeal to that group of voters that could put some one like a Mr. Santorum on a momentum not seen by most.
A third place or above finish in Iowa could be a huge boost to Mr. Santorum's candidacy. First place could in fact throw the whole GOP race into beyond uncharted territory.
Now I know one of the knocks on Mr. Santorum is that he lost his bid for reelection to the senate in 2006. By 20 points. But almost every candidate for office loses an election. And what those ripping him for losing that race seem to forget is that is the year the Democrats regained control of the House of Representative. And the senate. And that Mr. Santorum never backed down from his positions to try to win reelection.
But when you listen to him talk, he has the passion for the issues that I sometimes think Mr. Romney lacks. A knowledge that does not come off that he thinks he is the smartest guy or gal in the room. A la Mr. Gingrich. Mr. Santorum has also won races that he was not supposed to win in the home state of Pennsylvania. Can he do that in Iowa?
Again, in Iowa it is all about organization. And it does appear that Mr. Santorum does have that. And that may not be showing up in polls. Did not for the Rev. Mike until just days before the caucus took place.
I think that one should watch for the possibility that one Rick Santorum may just mess every one's plans up in Iowa come January 3.


1 comment:

An Unmarried Man said...

There's a lot of buzz about this guy now, isn't there? I read a little CNN piece by a reporter covering the candidates in Iowa and she talked about how he ate at a popular diner that all candidates make it a point to go and hardly anyone noticed him. He's a little too loony for me...