*****DISCLAIMER! THIS MAY BE A VERY LONG POST, BUT IT IS NECESSARY TO POINT OUT HOW THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN CAN AND WILL BE WON BY THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE IN 2008*****
Now with that out of the way, I think I have been an activist in the political game about 25 years all told from college until now. Admittedly, I have not always been as active as now, and eight years of William Jefferson Blythe Clinton can do that to any sane person. If there is one thing that I have figured out is the trench warfare that many a presidential election is fought.
So, a little modern political history.
For some reason, the American people were led to believe that we had never had such an election until the 2000 Bush-Gore saga. But we have. And, for the most part, those kind of elections took place in the 19th century. We had some very close ones in my 43 years on God's earth. Take 1968. Republican Richard Nixon barely beat Democrat Hubert Humphrey. Mr. Nixon did not get a majority of the popular vote, but got the majority of the electoral college. Same goes for Democrat Jimmy Carter over Republican Gerald Ford. And that was right after Watergate and with then President Ford starting at least 20 points behind Mr. Carter. And, how can we forget, but the election of 1992 was actually very close and William Jefferson Blythe Clinton only got 42 percent of the popular vote. In 1996, Mr. Clinton still could not break the 50 percent ceiling. Mr. Clinton got 49 percent against a weak Republican Bob Dole and an even weaker gadfly Ross Perot.
So, we have had a lot of close elections in the last forty years. Not every election can be a Ronald Reagan blowout.
Now that the history is done, here are the nuts and bolts.
Each party, Democrat and Republican starts any presidential campaign with roughly 30 percent of the voters of each party. These are the die hard, activist, vote for any candidate with a D or R after their name. Heck, one could be Kim jong-Il and if there is a D or an R, well you get the picture. That takes about 60 percent of the electorate out of the picture. They are in like flint.
Then, there are the 10 percenters. These are people who are registered either Democrat or Republican, but not necessarily loyal. These are the voters that a candidate needs to make feel like they are part of the party, either D or R. These people need a little more convincing. They need to be convinced that the candidate will address their pet issue or issues. Usually, they come along about a month after the political conventions. Another 20 percent of the electorate no longer up for grabs. That is a total of 80 percent of voters already spoken for. So, what about the magical 20 percent?
The 20 percent is what each campaign is going for. Usually these are the people that make up their minds at the last minute. These voters are not tied to any party. Amazingly, these voters are what I would refer to as instinctively conservative, but swayable. It is these voters that returned the Democrats back in control of congress in the 2006 midterm elections.
How do Republicans go after this 20 percent when things do not look so good?
Well, for one thing Republicans have got to clean house. Here is an example. In California, near the state capital, Sacramento, there is Republican congressman John Doolittle. Any day now, Mr. Doolittle may be indicted on corruption charges. If the Republican party was smart, they would strongly encourage Mr. Doolittle to stand down for reelection. It is time for Mr. Doolittle to term himself out of office. Same goes for Alaska senator Ted Stevens. If they continue to think it is all about them, then the Republican National Committee has to tell them, they can run, just do not expect the RNC to send cash their way. This would show the so-called swing voter that the Republicans do mean business that they would get dead weight out and the base excited. Corruption is a large issue for swing and loyal Republican voters.
Another fact is that there are certain issues that Republican voters like to hear and should be limited to the primary campaign season. Yes, the Democrat machine, essentially the DDBMSM, will bring those issues up. Well, that simply means the Republicans need to go on offense. And yes, it can be done.
The Republican candidate will be strong on the War Against Islamofacsist Terror, but may want to take a different approach. Maybe try to get European allies more involved. Maybe not using overt military actions, such as the war in the Iraq theatre. Also, the Republican candidate needs to really tie Iraq with the overall War Against Islamofacsist Terror. As President Bush has made some mistakes, it is a golden opportunity for the Republican candidate to say what he would do differently, but adhere to the fact that there is a serious war against fanatical Islam.
And what would make people excited than an issue that always serves Republicans well, taxes?
The candidate can not run on defense. He needs to come up with a comprehensive reform. Talk about the flat tax, the VAT, or fair tax. These are issues that resonate with voters, especially the 20 percenters.
And some honesty will help. The Republican candidate has to bluntly tell the American people that there is no quick fix to health care reform. The Republican has to promote choice and that one size does not fit all. The candidate will have to encourage state reforms. The Democrats are already for the socialized medical card, and the Republicans can not let them seize the issue. It could make or break a Republican candidacy.
It will be a good offense that overtakes a potential Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-NY) candidacy. Sen. Clinton needs to be on the defensive and be prone to make fatal errors that will cripple her candidacy. Yes, I know, the Washington DDBMSM crowd all but swooned over Sen. Clinton's performance this past Sunday on the five Sunday gas bag shows like Meet The Press, Face The Nation, This Week With George Stephanopolus, Fox News Sunday, Last Edition. But when you are getting softballs when the media needs to throw high, hard ones, someone like Sen. Clinton makes it look easy. So, will that help the Republicans? Absolutely. I think that the right candidate, say Mitt Romney will be able to deliver on an offense agenda. Remember, Mr. Romney was the most conservative Republican governor of Massachusetts since Calvin Coolidge. And yes, I know he was not as conservative as some, but I believe that he has growing and that is what we want, isn't it? I mean, do we not go through all of this to convince people a certain candidate and way he or she would govern is what is the correct course for the country? I know so.
As it was for George H. W. Bush in 1988, the Democrat presidential nominee will be up possibly 20 points. But, run an aggressive, offense-minded campaign and look what happens? And, remember former president Ronald Reagan was crippled during most of 1986 and a lot of 1987 due to the Iran-Contra affair. Granted, Mr. Reagan's numbers were not as lousy as President George W. Bush, but there is room for improvement and that can only help the Republican candidate.
I am not a gloom and doomer. If I were, then I would say let us coronate the Democrat candidate as president. There is a much better than a 50/50 chance for the Republicans to keep the White House and maybe take back one or both houses of congress. Again, the Republicans can win one or both houses if they get some kick-ass candidates in the mix. And, if that does not happen, at least keeping the Democrats from increasing their majorities maybe all that can be done this election cycle.
I think that if the Republican candidate endorses an aggressive agenda and campaign, I firmly believe that it will lead to victory in 2008. No more of this there is not a real conservative in the race. There are several and we need to keep encouraging them to stay in that direction. It is what this is all about. Getting more voters acquainted with and keeping them as Republicans.
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