Now, the Obamaiacs are apparently not all that confident that their guy can win the election. And reading this is one of many setups that the Obamaics are setting up http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/some_thoughts_on_a_hypothetica.php.
Now Marc Ambinder is usually a pretty level-headed guy. Sharp as a tack. But on this, it is insane on trying to use the 2000 model as what will happen in this election in 2008.
It will not be the blowout that many think. But, the winner will have both the majority of the popular and electoral college votes.
While the hard core of the state that went for Democrats Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass) will be about the same, it is a bit of a different map and the candidates are quite different this time around.
An example.
The McCain people are going to make some kind of play for California. Although it would seem to be the bluest of blue states, it does not top 55% in either 2000 or 2004. Sen. McCain's maverick image fit for a lot of California voters. There are many a disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters here who may think seriously about voting for Maverick McCain. Many people overlook California at their own peril. Obama, the new secular messiah, did not pull it off in California and while he does start at a good average among Hispanic voters, though it is painful to admit, McCain can make some headway with traditionalists. And, the issue of same-sex marriage is on the California ballot. A Mitt Romney in the VP slot would be a boost to those opposed to the California state supreme court's recent decision divining a "right" for same-sex couples to marry.
Obama will make a play for Colorado. It is a states trending Democrat. In 2006, they elected a Democrat to the senate, governor and the state legislature went from Republican to Democrat. If that trend continues, look for Obama to spend time and effort there.
Those two examples alone should make any observer see that the current Red-Blue standings may be obsolete and that these two are going to areas that neither party has been in a long time. And, it is not just states but the interest groups.
Obama is going to go after religious voters. After the "Rev." Wright fiasco, it may be harder, but he will try.
McCain is going to make a real push for Hispanic voters as well as independents and yes, Democrats.
So, if Obama does lose, and I believe he will, it is not going to be in some conspiracy. It will be because voters will look at the two candidates and determine for better or worse, McCain is the better of the two.
So Marc Ambinder, do not look for some weirdness to explain a potential Obama loss. Let the voters vote and decide.
7 comments:
I hope your prediction is right. I hope that McCain can pull out California and Michigan. I hate living in a blue state, especially when 95% of the counties are red. That sucks.
McCain is going to make a real push for Hispanic voters as well as independents and yes, Democrats.
Who's going to make a play for the conservatives? I keep waiting and waiting.
I wonder if we'll be the neglected group this election season to someones detriment? With lot's of "oops, someone should have really reached out to them" commentary in hindsight.
If Obama loses, it will be because of those racist downscale whites, the Republican attack machine and from young people who went into the polling places looking to register to vote the day of the election.
Blacks will be sorely let down and will stay away from the polls in 2012. Ironically I remember of rumors floating around the web earlier in the decade that blacks would be denied the right vote about 2011 or 2012 or so. Of their own doing?
I believe John Kerry was ahead in the polls in '04. Usually the silent majority shows up and votes. I hope the media continues to show Obama in the lead then the "young" vote will forget to show up like they did last time even though they were told to vote or die...great post :)N
Actually the election of Obama would be the ultimate in affirmative action.
Unfortunately Nikki the silent majority always votes for the same old same old; and you end up with...blech! Never mind, we all know who we'll end up with.
from one who is on the outside looking in at the political landscape of the golden state 64, mccain ain't got a shot!!!! but you know better!!!.... despite all the rhetoric of an excited democratic base itching at the bit to vote, i say we have low turnout in every state!!!
Post a Comment