Bad Move To Dismiss Iowa

The presumed front-running GOP presidential candidate, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and other front-runner, in his mind, Arizona Sen. John "F--- You McCain, are making a very big mistake by skipping the Iowa Republican party straw poll this weekend in Aames, Iowa.
Yea, yea, the inside-the-beltway analysts are saying that it is no big deal and that Iowa is no big deal. They have what I will call small stateaphobia. In their mind, Iowa fits that paradigm.
But, in the last two presidential elections, Iowa was a swing state. In 2000, it voted for Democrat Al Gore by roughly about 5,000 votes. In 2004, it flipped and went with President Bush by roughly about 5,000 votes.
So, what is the big deal about this straw poll in Aames?
It is a sign of organization and what candidate can get the most Republican voters to the caucus in January. That is how it works in Iowa. No primary. Thus, what Aames does is separate the cream of the top and the milk at the bottom. A little farmer lingo from this city boy!
Without a doubt, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has invested a lot in this straw poll. And that is a good thing. If he ends up with the most votes of this non-binding vote, it should translate to more in January. Mr. Romney has the most to lose if he does not win this straw poll.
As an aside, it is the most brilliant fund-raiser I have ever seen. A state party charging $35 a head for the right to vote for the candidate of the Republicans choice. Approximately 20,000 to 25,000 will attend this straw poll. At the least it will get $700,000 for the state party. At most well over a million bucks. I think about this happening here in California. Say at $50 a person, as many as 100,000 going to this say in Sacramento. That is $5,000,000 for the state GOP in California. Oh well, I am not the state chairman, but if I were I would look at this seriously.
Iowa is still a small enough state that organization matters and maybe Mr. Giuliani and Sen. "F--- You" McCain just do not want to make that effort. But, if one of them is the nominee and it is the kind of election that 2000 and 2004 was, getting Iowa in the GOP corner will be very important.
That is why Mr. Romney is working so hard to win this straw poll. It should translate to votes in January and votes in November if Mr. Romney is the Republican presidential nominee. It is smart, old-fashioned retail politics that do still work in a place like Iowa.
It is too bad that Mr. Giuliani and Sen. "F--- You" McCain have decided to not take part in the straw poll in Aames. They do not take Iowa seriously and they should. Mr. Romney does take Iowa seriously and this is another reason I believe that is why Mr. Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee.