Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Is Romney Really Leading In Some Of Those Swing States?

The short answer to the headline is yes.
The complicated answer is probably.
The out there answer is hell yes!
At this link to Real Clear Politics, if you look over at the Battleground polls, the 12 states featured 10 of them show the Dear Leader, President Obama, in a lead of some kind. Only two of the twelve, Missouri (why it is considered a battleground state beats me) and North Carolina (slowly but surely moving out as a battleground state) are in Mr. Romney's camp.
So lets look at this state by state starting with the Dear Leader, President Obama. This will go from the smallest lead to the largest according to the RCP state polling average.

Iowa                              Obama +1.3%
Florida                           Obama +1.4%
Colorado                       Obama +2.7%
Virginia                         Obama +2.8%
New Hampshire            Obama +3%
Ohio                              Obama +4.3%
Nevada                          Obama +5.3%
Wisconsin                     Obama +6%
Michigan                       Obama +6.3%
Pennsylvania                 Obama +7%

The only one the 10 states that at this point look out of reach for Mr Romney is Pennsylvania. But I would not call this the way it it will go down in Pennsylvania or any of the other seemingly Dear Leader, President Obama states.
The average lead of the 10 states is 4.1% and in most polling data, it is within the margin of error.
Now, look at the two Romney states that are still considered battleground states.

North Carolina            Romney +1%
Missouri                      Romney +5.7%

The two Romney states show him ahead by an average of 3.4%. Also in the margin of error.
But, of the Dear Leader states, Colorado is slowly going away from him. The fact that the Dear Leader is barely ahead in Virginia should be cause for concern. Ditto New Hampshire. And then there is Ohio.
Ohio is the state that can and will determine the election. At least for Mr. Romney. For no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. It is just that. Is it possible that this year history can change?
Because other than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and at this point, I think that there is something that is at play here.
That people are still nervous about telling pollsters that they are not going to vote for the Dear Leader, President Obama. Regrettably, this is the fear of being called a racist. Even though one is anonymously answering a pollster's question, there is about five percent of any given state poll in which I do not believe the potential voters are answering honestly.
Some have referred to this as The Bradley Effect and it is in reference to the 1982 gubernatorial campaign between the Black Democrat mayor of Los Angeles and the Republican Attorney General, George Deukmejian.
In that election, poll after poll showed Mr. Bradley with a healthy lead over Mr. Deukmejian. And even on election day, exit polls seemed to show that Mr. Bradley would have been the first elected Black governor in California's history.
One thing happened.
A then new phenomenon called absentee voting was taken total advantage of by the Republican party. That year thousands if not millions of mailer were sent to Republican and Republican leaning voters asking them to register absentee and vote from the comfort and total privacy of their homes.
What happened is that Mr. Bradley barely won the majority of votes on election day and Mr. Deukmejian won a strong majority of the absentee votes and won the election by about 50,000 votes.
Yet why it is called the Bradley effect is that people were telling pollsters sure, they were going to vote for Mr. Bradley but some decided at the last minute to vote for Mr. Deukmejian. Or intended to all along but did not answer honestly for fear of being accused of raaaaacism.
Remember, there are five a's in racism to drive the point home!
Thus, I really believe that when all is said and done, Mr. Romney will win the following of the 10 battleground states currently leaning to the Dear Leader, President Obama (and the electoral votes)

Iowa                       6
Florida                  29       
Colorado                9      
Virginia                13
New Hampshire     4      
Ohio                     18
Nevada                  6

And add the two states that are leaning to Mr. Romney:

Missouri                10
North Carolina      15

That, my friends, is 110 electoral votes.
And in the election of 2008, the Dear Leader, President Obama, had 365 electoral votes. Take away 110 electoral votes and we will be able to call him the former Dear Leader, former President Obama.
It is regrettable that in this election, and it is already one of the most charged in my lifetime, some people will not be honest with the pollsters. But they will be honest with themselves on election day. And that is why I think Mitt Romney is actually leading some of these battleground states. And that he will win enough to be the 45th president of the United States.

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