Tuesday, March 06, 2012

So Who Will The Big Super Tuesday Winner Be For The GOP?

As I write this, voters will go to the polls in 10 states to determine the lion's share of 410 delegates for the Republican presidential nomination.
Today voters in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia will vote as to who they think should be the GOP presidential nominee and who should get the delegates.
So, a scorecard is needed as to who can win, where and why.
Lets start with Mitt Romney and the following states he should win today:

Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia.

Mr. Romney should win Idaho with ease as it in the Mormon trifecta-Nevada and Utah being the other heavily-populated Mormon states. Massachusetts is his current home state. Vermont because he is a New Englander and Virginia by default.
Virginia is by default because two of the three others left in the race, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, failed to qualify for the Virginia ballot. Only Crazy Uncle Ron Paul will be on the ballot with Mr. Romney in the Old Dominion state.
For Rick Santorum, he should win the following states:

Oklahoma and Tennesee.

A win in both states is a huge boost to Mr. Santorum's claim that he is the last viable conservative standing between Mr. Romney and the Republican presidential nomination.
Ron Paul, yes Crazy Uncle Ron, has a chance to win two states because they are caucus states and they are:

Alaska and North Dakota.

Crazy Uncle Ron has a better chance in Alaska than North Dakota. But one can never rule out a win for the libertarian in North Dakota.
Newt Gingrich will only win one state:


It will not be much of a win because it is his home state. A loss there and it is totally over for the former Speaker of the House.
And that leaves one race that I do not have a prediction on.
And that is Ohio as Mr. Santorum's once solid lead has evaporated and Mr. Romney is closing in.
If I had to get out of a room and only could choosing one of the two, I will give the edge to Mr. Santorum. But not one with a great deal of confidence.
And that is because like it or not, Mr. Santorum has been knocked off message and some of it is his own doing.
I like the fact that he is unabashed about being a true so con. But to win Ohio, one must know that it is all about the economy, the economy, the economy.
And yes, I do know that the leftywhore media has amped up the coverage of Mr. Santorum on social issues. But there is no reason to take the bait. Mr. Santorum has to realize that the leftywhore media is going after him on these issues. And he must learn how to force the conversation back to the economy. That is why I think Mr. Romney has gained ground and might, might just pull off the win in Ohio.
But please fellow conservatives and Republicans, it will not end tonight.
Unless Mr. Romney wins six or more states, it will continue to be a race of attrition and no one has to drop out just yet.
So tonight the results will be a mixed bag and a lot for us to chew on in the upcoming days and yes, weeks.

1 comment:

Ken Hoop said...

Ron Paul was the only candidate who would have saved thousands of US lives, tens of thousands of limbs from the Iraq War, sponsored by Israel's fifth column. Not to mention three trillion dollars spent and Iran holding sway there now.

Arrogant asshole.