Tuesday, June 10, 2014


This is historically huge news about the House Majority Leader, Eric Cantor (R-Va.) so much so that it gets double flaming skulls over at the Ace Of Spades and Allahpundit trying to hold back the glee.
The history is that no House majority leader has evah, I mean evah, been defeated in a primary since the position became official in 1899.
The dislike for Mr. Cantor in his home district, the Virginia 7th, became apparent as he was literally crushed by political neophyte Dave Brat, a college economics professor by the margin of 56% to 44%.
What's worse is that Mr. Cantor had a $2,500,000 war chest compared to a little over $200,000 for Mr. Brat.
Money did not buy Mr. Cantor job security.
What I believe happened to Mr. Cantor is that he became the Republican House leadership fall guy in their still inexplicable quest to ram through so-called "comprehensive" immigration reform. More than anyone else in either the House or the Senate in recent weeks and months, Mr. Cantor was the face of it. The face of trying desperately to cut some kind of deal with Democrats and the Dear Leader, President Obama. So much so that Mr. Cantor seemed to forget that he had a primary to win.
Now, Mr. Cantor has paid the ultimate price by losing his own congressional seat and any power to see any immigration reform through the legislative process.
On the other hand, Mr. Brat gained the support of two of the strongest conservative talk radio personalities, Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin, who are also both in Virginia. With that and a hearty band of volunteers, Mr. Brat smacked down Mr. Cantor as a part of the GOP establishment. As someone seeking not just so-called "comprehensive" immigration reform, but the dirtiest of words-amnesty. On those two issues, and with some Democrat help in an open primary, Mr. Brat will assuredly be going to Washington for the Virginia 7th congressional district is solidly Republican.
And if one thinks that this does loss for Mr. Cantor does not run deep, look at these city/county election results. Mr. Cantor won the city of Richmond and three counties. Mr. Brat took six counties.
Again, this is a historic and deep rebuke of Mr. Cantor and a real message to the Republican leadership in Washington.
Mr. Cantor was in fact considered a friend of the Tea Party in Republican congressional leadership but since the 2012 election, made a strong move to the center and leadership aligning himself much more with the current House speaker, Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio). And as I noted above, made himself the fall guy for the immigration debate and, well, this is the thanks that he has received.
The dream of becoming the first Jewish, Republican Speaker of the House is now dead. His leadership will probably come to an unceremonious end before he even leaves congress. The question is who will replace him.
There is the House majority whip, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (D-Bakersfield, Ca.), but I doubt that will happen. There is Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tx), a favorite of the Tea Party and more conservative forces in the GOP. Already talk is a compromise candidate, the former 2012 GOP vice-presidential nominee, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).
If there is a leadership change, I think that it will be Mr. Hensarling for I do not think Speaker Boehner wants to have an open revolt if he tries to get Mr. McCarthy or Mr. Ryan as majority leader. Mr. McCarthy is seen by many as part of the tone-deaf leadership problem and Mr. Ryan is seen as too much of a waffle on so-called "comprehensive" immigration reform.
An aside.
If anyone wants to read this, unless there is first a provision for serious, tight border security and some deportations, not a total round 'em up and ship 'em home type, but some deportations, do not expect any more Republicans to be willing to face the fate of Mr. Cantor for they will, like it or not.
The lesson is clear. Unless one wants to risk it all on forging a plan that has no discernible support as a major issue, there will not be any major legislation this year. It will be next year and Republicans will be more than likely in control of congress and if they play it smart, a huge if, they will get more of what they want then than they will now. It will be a test for the Democrats as well if they are indeed serious about any kind of immigration reform.
Tonight, a political neophyte took on the biggest of the Republican cheese and did not just nibble at the cheese. Dave Brat ate the whole piece of cheese that was the political career of Eric Cantor.

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