This really is it folks as the last The Des Moines Register poll before Monday's caucus just came out a while ago.
And while it does show Donald J. Trump in the lead with 28%, Sen. Ted Cruz is not far behind at 23% and trailing in third place is Sen. Marco Rubio with 15%. Which means that all should get some of the 30 delegates up for grabs in this state.
Each of the top three candidates can point to some good news for their team.
For the Donald, his support is the most solid at 71%. And 50% think that the Donald will actually be feared by foreign leaders the most. But the downside is that many feel the Donald is not the most knowledgeable or will be respected by friends of the United States.
In regard to Sen. Cruz, he has a higher enthusiasm rating to be the GOP nominee compared to the Donald. Sen. Cruz is in positive territory at 56% while the Donald is at 44%. Sen. Rubio leads that field at 58%. Se. Cruz also is sky-high in favorability ratings at 65% compared to the Donald's 50%. Sen. Cruz is also strong as a second choice at 17% while the Donald only manages a seven percent second choice in a caucus where people can and do change their minds at the last minute.
The good news for Sen. Rubio is that people would be very inclined to be with him if he ends up winning the GOP nod with 58% of those voters. And Sen. Rubio has strong favorability rating at 70%. The problem for Sen. Rubio is that it has not translated to potential votes in the caucus.
This is usually the most reliable of the polls and does not change my prediction that Sen. Ted Cruz will win the caucus, Donald J. Trump will come in second and Sen. Marco Rubio third.
In less than 48 hours we will finally see the voting begin and the hand wringing fire up on all sides.
NOTE:
I typed in the wrong numbers of the poll results. I have corrected that error.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Iowa 2016 Republican Edition
Monday is the big day as the Iowa voters finally will caucus and get the GOP presidential nomination show on the road.
This is a helpful guide as to how the caucus actually works. It is not a primary and is somewhat byzantine in how delegates are eventually chosen. One thing that it is not is a winner-take-all caucus. Delegates are chosen based on the percentage of votes any given candidate receives. Thus More than likely the top three finishers will walk away with delegates and possibly power at a possibly brokered GOP convention in Cleveland later this year.
One bit of digression that is important to note is that most states in the past were winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Not this time. A full 84% of the delegates will be chosen by a form of proportional representation. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Thus it is possible that fewer candidates will simply drop out as in the past. It is possible that it could be a three-way race all the way to Cleveland and no one candidate will have the 1,237 delegates needed for a first-ballot victory. It is possible no one will be close enough in the end.
So back to Iowa.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, yes Donald J. Trump still leads all candidates with 31% of the vote. Texas senator Ted Cruz is a strong second with 25% and Florida senator Marco Rubio is a surging third place with about 14%. The rest of those still standing are in the single digits.
But history shows, and this year is no exception, that as much as 40% of the people who will actually caucus can change their minds right up to caucus night.
What does that mean?
Well, it possibly hurts the Donald more than anyone. Since he decided to skip the last debate this past Thursday and host a hastily-staged support for veteran-themed event, the potential caucus goers do not like that disrespect. It was something that Ronald Reagan regretted when he skipped the last Iowa debate in 1980. Mr. Reagan lost and it lead to the eventual sacking of his campaign manager, John Sears. That is something when people point that out to defend the Donald and his decision to bail because he could not take Fox News channel's Megan Kelly and her possible pointed questions that he might actually have to answer.
Not having the Donald on the debate stage helped all of the candidates. But probably helped Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb! Bush more than the others.
There is a school of thought that a serious caucus attender will have heard all of the candidates at least once in person during this Death March of a campaign season. They make up their mind and then get to the caucus site and hear all those from the different campaigns and some just change their mind right there on the spot. While 40% seems to be a high number, it is the way that a caucus works. Yeah, it is a little messy but truly democracy in action.
What do I think will happen on Monday night?
It will be a nail-biter but I think that Sen. Cruz will finish first. Then it is the battle for the scraps and that will be between the Donald and Sen. Rubio. My guess is that Sen. Rubio could easily surge to second place based on the past. But more than likely the Donald will finish second and Sen. Rubio a very strong third. The rest? Well, it won't matter except for Jeb! and his millions that he can stay in hoping that there will be a dreaded brokered convention.
Then it is on to New Hampshire only a week later.
The 2016 presidential Death March campaign is finally going to the caucus goers and the voters and not a moment too soon.
This is a helpful guide as to how the caucus actually works. It is not a primary and is somewhat byzantine in how delegates are eventually chosen. One thing that it is not is a winner-take-all caucus. Delegates are chosen based on the percentage of votes any given candidate receives. Thus More than likely the top three finishers will walk away with delegates and possibly power at a possibly brokered GOP convention in Cleveland later this year.
One bit of digression that is important to note is that most states in the past were winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Not this time. A full 84% of the delegates will be chosen by a form of proportional representation. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Thus it is possible that fewer candidates will simply drop out as in the past. It is possible that it could be a three-way race all the way to Cleveland and no one candidate will have the 1,237 delegates needed for a first-ballot victory. It is possible no one will be close enough in the end.
So back to Iowa.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, yes Donald J. Trump still leads all candidates with 31% of the vote. Texas senator Ted Cruz is a strong second with 25% and Florida senator Marco Rubio is a surging third place with about 14%. The rest of those still standing are in the single digits.
But history shows, and this year is no exception, that as much as 40% of the people who will actually caucus can change their minds right up to caucus night.
What does that mean?
Well, it possibly hurts the Donald more than anyone. Since he decided to skip the last debate this past Thursday and host a hastily-staged support for veteran-themed event, the potential caucus goers do not like that disrespect. It was something that Ronald Reagan regretted when he skipped the last Iowa debate in 1980. Mr. Reagan lost and it lead to the eventual sacking of his campaign manager, John Sears. That is something when people point that out to defend the Donald and his decision to bail because he could not take Fox News channel's Megan Kelly and her possible pointed questions that he might actually have to answer.
Not having the Donald on the debate stage helped all of the candidates. But probably helped Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb! Bush more than the others.
There is a school of thought that a serious caucus attender will have heard all of the candidates at least once in person during this Death March of a campaign season. They make up their mind and then get to the caucus site and hear all those from the different campaigns and some just change their mind right there on the spot. While 40% seems to be a high number, it is the way that a caucus works. Yeah, it is a little messy but truly democracy in action.
What do I think will happen on Monday night?
It will be a nail-biter but I think that Sen. Cruz will finish first. Then it is the battle for the scraps and that will be between the Donald and Sen. Rubio. My guess is that Sen. Rubio could easily surge to second place based on the past. But more than likely the Donald will finish second and Sen. Rubio a very strong third. The rest? Well, it won't matter except for Jeb! and his millions that he can stay in hoping that there will be a dreaded brokered convention.
Then it is on to New Hampshire only a week later.
The 2016 presidential Death March campaign is finally going to the caucus goers and the voters and not a moment too soon.
Ruminations
I looked at the last time that I posted and realized, wow it has been a while.
A lot has happened since December 22, 2015. Too much not to use this post as a spray at all fields, so to speak.
The 2016 presidential campaign is in full swing and finally, Iowa voters will caucus on Monday. We are at a point of the campaign in which we will see in the Donald J. Trump campaign is going to steamroll it's way to the GOP nomination. On the Democrat side, we will see if voters Feel the Bern and whether once again, as in 2008, they go far left and nominate an open socialist.
The Super Bowl is set and next Sunday the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos will play for all the NFL marbles. I'm pulling for a Bronco win for probably the first time because I do like Peyton Manning. And He has not ruined any chance for my beloved Cleveland Browns making the Super Bowl the same way one horse-faced looking guy, John Elway, did twice to my Browns in the 1980s. The reason that Mr. Manning has not done damage is because, to be blunt, my Browns have sucked. Pure, plain and simple.
On February 28 will be the Academy Awards, truly a waste of time and space. Yet millions will watch and salivate over people that could not get a serious job. Oh, and there is a manufactured controversy about the fact no Black was nominated for best actor and or actress. And the movie Straight Outta Compton was not nominated for best picture. Why there is the hash tag, #OscarsSoWhite. And I say so what?! There have been plenty of years in which Blacks have been nominated and won. Last I checked, and correct me if I am wrong, but the movie 12 Years A Slave won the Academy Award for best picture in 2013. It's all arbitrary anyhow and some years are just better than others for Blacks and well, everyone else. Some Black actors and actresses are boycotting the Academy Awards this year. And I say welcome to my party. I too am a boycotter but that is every year, not just over some made-up controversy. I just loathe the whole awards show concept.
California is still in the toilet and moving to the left at a rapid pace. There is still corruption at all levels of government and always the wonder of why. Maybe essential one-party rule is part of it. Just sayin. . .
There is so much to write and so little time. But one vow is that I will make an effort to get something in at least once a day from here on in.
Ruminations are not all that easy to do.
A lot has happened since December 22, 2015. Too much not to use this post as a spray at all fields, so to speak.
The 2016 presidential campaign is in full swing and finally, Iowa voters will caucus on Monday. We are at a point of the campaign in which we will see in the Donald J. Trump campaign is going to steamroll it's way to the GOP nomination. On the Democrat side, we will see if voters Feel the Bern and whether once again, as in 2008, they go far left and nominate an open socialist.
The Super Bowl is set and next Sunday the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos will play for all the NFL marbles. I'm pulling for a Bronco win for probably the first time because I do like Peyton Manning. And He has not ruined any chance for my beloved Cleveland Browns making the Super Bowl the same way one horse-faced looking guy, John Elway, did twice to my Browns in the 1980s. The reason that Mr. Manning has not done damage is because, to be blunt, my Browns have sucked. Pure, plain and simple.
On February 28 will be the Academy Awards, truly a waste of time and space. Yet millions will watch and salivate over people that could not get a serious job. Oh, and there is a manufactured controversy about the fact no Black was nominated for best actor and or actress. And the movie Straight Outta Compton was not nominated for best picture. Why there is the hash tag, #OscarsSoWhite. And I say so what?! There have been plenty of years in which Blacks have been nominated and won. Last I checked, and correct me if I am wrong, but the movie 12 Years A Slave won the Academy Award for best picture in 2013. It's all arbitrary anyhow and some years are just better than others for Blacks and well, everyone else. Some Black actors and actresses are boycotting the Academy Awards this year. And I say welcome to my party. I too am a boycotter but that is every year, not just over some made-up controversy. I just loathe the whole awards show concept.
California is still in the toilet and moving to the left at a rapid pace. There is still corruption at all levels of government and always the wonder of why. Maybe essential one-party rule is part of it. Just sayin. . .
There is so much to write and so little time. But one vow is that I will make an effort to get something in at least once a day from here on in.
Ruminations are not all that easy to do.
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