Sunday, November 04, 2012

So, What Will Election Day Look Like?

What do I mean by what election day look like?
Simply put, will weather play a part in who votes where? What voters will be more motivated to vote on election day? Obama voters or Romney voters? Will the so-called battleground states all fall one way or will there be some surprises?
Well, as far as the weather, according to the Weather Channel, Election Day should be fine for people to get out and vote. Especially in the so-called battleground states.
As far as the voters motivated to actually show up to vote, that is easy.
The Romney/Ryan voters are beyond fired-up to get out and vote. There is no question to that. Over 30,000 show up at a Friday night rally near Cincinnati, Ohio for the Romney/Ryan ticket. Nearly 30,000 in Bucks county, Pennsylvania today for the GOP ticket.
What about the crowds for the incumbent Obama/Biden ticket?
By and large they can not break 5,000 any where that they show up. It appears that those that do show up are the hardcore base and the hangers-on.
Now maybe crowds do not matter all that much to some. But it is a lot of the way that volunteers will get out the vote on election day. It creates an abiding enthusiasm that can not be replicated by the other team. It shows that people are wanting to vote for someone than against they other.
If you do not believe that, as President John S. McCain.
In the waning days of the 2008 campaign, much as we tried to will Sen. "F--- You" McCain to victory, it was a lot like the Obamiacs are doing now. Not offering a reason to vote for them, but why voting for the other guy would be a disaster.
So, trust me, the motivation is totally on Romney/Ryan.
And the so-called battleground states will fall all one way or another or split?
I honestly believe that it will all go one way and that dove-tails into the reality of the motivated voters.
All the battleground states will, by varying margins, fall into the Romney/Ryan camp.
Polls are very important indicators but always keep this in mind. They are but a snapshot in time. And that is the time that any poll is taken.
It must be noted that in the 2004 campaign, all the way to Election Day, Democrat presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), was leading in every single Ohio poll. Then President Bush never ever had a lead. Ever. And who won Ohio? President Bush by over 200.000 votes.
It is why those who want to vote for Romney/Ryan have between now and election day to not be discouraged and use all of this to work doubly hard to get out the vote. Unlike 2008, the Romney/Ryan ticket is really within the margins of error in every so-called battleground state.
This election could be an electoral college blowout, a split-decision a la 2000 or way too close everywhere.
I think it will be more like the first scenario and I will explain why in the next post.

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