You know, being the Dog Days of summer is a good time to take a look at the current Republican presidential field including some that are not in but possible entries.
I am doing this as if this is a horse race. So yeah, there are odds and it is as I see it for the candidate's chances to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2012.
There is no order to this. I am just making the observation as a conservative and a Republican. I also am looking as to what the potential nominee will have against the Dear Leader, President Obama.
So, away we go.
1) Mitt Romney
Even odds
Mr. Romney is the front runner at this point. However, I worry that he is playing it safe too much. However, today showed that he does have his moments and that is what I want to see from him. It is passion. If he is the GOP nominee, he will have to rally in a big way people to his cause. Mr. Romney can not be the technocrat. He needs to zero in on the problems that the United States face, why the Dear Leader, President Obama, sucks and why he will be a better president.
If he can do that, he will be the Republican presidential nominee.
2) Rick Perry
5-1
You know, I am not all that sold on the Rick Perry candidacy. I think the guy has been a great governor for Texas. Definitely to the right of the guy he succeeded, George W. Bush. Texas is literally a miracle in a moribund economy. Gov. Perry did enact tort reform and made budget cuts rather than raise taxes to balance the state budget. Other positives are that this is a former Democrat. Yeah, he was the state chair for Al Gore in his failed 1988 Democrat presidential run. But remember, the Great Man, Ronald Reagan, in the same amount of time went from FDR Democrat to conservative Republican. And Gov. Perry needs to drive that point home. That the Democrat party is way to out of the mainstream and that the Republican party welcomes you. Another positive is that he has been the longest serving governor in Texas history. And he has had to run contested twice within the Republican party to keep his job. But there are negatives. One, he comes off as George W. Bush II. It is false because the two dudes do not really care for each other. But it is the Texas 'tude that people get the connection. Also, there is the Gardasil issue that I briefly highlighted here.
Gov. Perry may become the front runner if he can tie his leaving the Democrat party, highlighting conservative governance in Texas and his own story of achievement.
3) Michele Bachmann
10-1
Congressman Bachmann made a splash in her first GOP presidential debate and rode that to a victory in the Ames Straw Poll. But since the Perry candidacy, she has faded. Congressman Bachmann is a leading conservative Republican in Washington. She has rallied the troops against the Dear Leader, President Obama. She has led in opposition and that is a good thing. She has a great personal story. Like Gov. Perry, Congressman Bachmann was once a Democrat. She has raised five children, 23 foster children and is a lawyer. And it was her getting involved in local politics that has her where she is now. But there are some negatives. As a congressman, she has no legislation that she can point to and say she shepereded through congress and it became law. Can anyone point to a legislative accomplishment that the Dear Leader, President Obama, had when he was Sen. Messiah Barack? Or when he was a state senator in Illinois? Exactly. Inexperience in a leadership position may not help her candidacy. Also it remains to be seen if she can move beyond the base and attract non-ideological voters. But she has run some tough races each of her congressional races and in Minnesota no less. She needs to get some of the mo jo back or Gov. Perry will knock her towards the back of the pack.
4) Rick Santorum
20-1
I admit, I really like former Sen. Rick Santorum. He won some of the toughest congressional and senate races ever fought in Pennsylvania. But, he lost his senate reelection campaign in 2006 by about 20 points. And since then has stayed in Washington and been a Fox News Channel contributor. Mr. Santorum is probably going after the same primary voters as Gov. Perry and Congressman Bachmann. But, he is one of two Roman Catholics in the Republican field. So, he may appeal to those voters and Blue Collar evangelical Christians. Mr. Santorum is on the issues a solid conservative. But the negatives are rather large for such a good candidate as Mr. Santorun. I think that he will and has come off as part of the Washington political class. And again, he is competing for similar voters that Gov. Perry and Congressman Bachmann are. I do not think that he makes it past Iowa. If that long.
Newt Gingrich
40-1
Another great leader, but I think that his time has past. Former Speaker of the House, leader of the conservative Republicans for years in the House of Representatives. A man with so many ideas, they roll out with ease. A proven winner as he took the Contract With America and ended up leading the Republicans to the promised land of a House majority in 1994. But, the negatives are really high for Mr. Gingrich. Once in the majority, Mr. Gingrich was able to enact a lot of the CWA into law. However, his lack of discipline came back to bite him. He ended up not running for reelection in 1998 and left the House in disgrace. Then there is the fact that Mr. Gingrich was having an affair with the current Mrs. Gingrich, the third wife, while still married with wife number two. He converted from Baptist to the Roman Catholic church upon marrying Calista. Not that it is a negative. Just highlighting a lack of discipline. It is that which I worry about and I think a lot of Republicans worry about as well.
5) Herman Cain
50-1
Another candidate I like. He is the American success story. Against all odds, being Black, growing up in the segregated South, Mr. Cain became the head of a corporate region and became the CEO of Godfather's Pizza. All this despite rantings of the worthless troll, Janeane Garafalo. And since leaving corporate America he has been a radio talk show host and conservative activist. The problem is that he is not that well known outside hardcore conservative political circles. He is solid on the issues, but that lack of name recognition maybe his undoing. I think that he makes it out of Iowa at least but it may be undone in New Hampshire.
Ron Paul
150-1
What can I say about Crazy Uncle Ron? I mean, on a lot of issues I actually agree with Crazy Uncle Ron. But he is a libertarian in the extreme. And I am not. I do not think we would be a better society with unlimited access to illegal drugs, prostitution and other things. Nor do I believe we should retreat to Fortress America and pretend the rest of the world does not exist. But he has a very loyal following. However, I do not think that they will translate to enough votes to deliver the GOP nod to Crazy Uncle Ron. I do worry about him launching a Libertarian party run at for the White House. We shall see.
Jon Huntsman, Jr.
500-1
And the point of his candidacy? To give Republicans a younger Sen. John "F--- You" McCain? No, trying the running a respectful campaign against the Dear Leader, President Obama, yet savaging fellow Republicans will keep him from the GOP nod. And believing in Globaloney Warming and bashing believers in Creation is not a way to win votes. Unless you are running as a Democrat. This is the worst candidacy since, well since Sen. John "F--- You" McCain.
Now, that is the candidates. But there are at least three that are thinking about a run. They have not announced and or keep just saying no. But might be persuadable.
Here they are.
Chris Christie
50-1
The New Jersey governor, is doing a spectacular job taking on the public employee unions, fighting to balance a state budget without raising taxes and taking on a corrupt state Democrat machine. And he has a lot of success. And he has a refreshing no-nonsense approach. However, I am not sure is good on social issues and that is important to a lot of Republican primary voters. Also not sure about his foreign policy creds. But I like his style. Will that play well in other parts of the United States? Do not know. But he has a good record to run on. I think that he wants to run for president, but feels an obligation to at least finish his term as governor. But what a great race it would be if he does decide to get in.
Rudy Giuliani
150-1
I do not think he or his people get it. Rudy Giuliani is America's mayor, but he just is not ever going to be president. He was a solid conservative. For New York City standards. But to the rest of the United States, he is pretty moderate. But there is talk of him getting in the race. My advice. Don't!
Sarah Palin
2-1
That leaves the former Alaska governor. She is going to run. And she will be the candidate with the best chance of turning the crowded race upside down. Everything is known about Mrs. Palin. Good and bad. She is already the most vetted American not running for president. She polarizing to many, but so was some guy named Reagan. She is the one candidate in or out of the race that excites a lot of people the way that the Dear Leader, President Obama, did as a candidate. Deep down, I believe that Mrs. Palin is the one that Team Obama fears the most. Again, there are no surprises because she is the most vetted candidate and or non-candidate in the field. Running on her own will be good because I think that she will have a chance to connect with a lot of fence-sitters in a positive way. And on her own terms.
That leaves me with this comment.
I do not get this mantra that the Republican field is weak. Firstly, there are a lot of candidates and potential candidates. The Dear Leader, President Obama, is weak and getting weaker every day. These people are circling like sharks in the water. It is a great field and there are some others that may decide to take a shot.
A lot can change, but this is how I see the race today.
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