Right now the Republican voters of Nevada are going to caucus for either Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio or Donald J. Trump.
It will be a late night back East for the caucus does not close until 9pm Pacific Standard Time. Turnout is supposed to be about 10% and the unreliable polling does show the Donald far ahead. But Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are putting in a serious effort here. It is the last test for all the candidates before the 13-state Super Tuesday primary a week from today.
Since I am a partisan in this, I urge all Nevada Republicans to show up and caucus for Sen. Rubio.
There will be a separate post about results as they come in. If you can't wait, here is a page for up to the minute results.
Showing posts with label Ted Cruz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ted Cruz. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Thoughts On New Hampshire
Last night was an earthquake for both the Democrat and Republican parties as two outsiders swept to victory in the persons of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Donald J. Trump in the New Hampshire presidential primaries.
I will just comment for the Democrats, there is no question that one Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She should win the nomination because of her dominance of the superdelegates. But make no mistake, Sen. Sanders and his brand of democratic socialism is finding an audience. There is no doubt that Sen. Sanders can and will win some more states. He will move Mrs. Clinton further to the left and the Democrat party as a whole that way. There is a civil war in the Democrat party and that can not be glossed over.
But this is Right View From The Left Coast and I will make extended thoughts on the Republican race.
And I will do so regarding each of the eight candidates that seriously competed in New Hampshire starting with the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary.
Donald J. Trump.
No question he won and won big. But make no mistake about it. in this case he got a lot of his 35% support from the undeclared or independent voters. Having said that, there is no question that Mr. Trump is the Pat Buchanan with money of this election cycle. He is saying that everything needs to be blown up in Washington and he is the one that can do it. Never mind that he offers little difference between himself and either of the two Democrats running for president. he is against the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll GOP establishment. And that is enough for about 30 to 35% of the GOP vote. Mr. Trump now has 17 delegates as the result of second place in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. Remember that 84% of the delegates are distributed by a form of proportional representation depending on the state. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all states. It will be important come convention time.
John Kasich.
Basically Gov. Kasich finished a distant second and that will do nothing to help him get more money and or endorsements. Gov Kasich will not win in South Carolina. I don't see anywhere he has any opening. He will try to hang on, but without a miracle in South Carolina and Nevada, where does he win on Super Tuesday? But he can keep going on until Super Tuesday and hope to accumulate more than the three delegates he got on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz.
Sen. Cruz ended up having a good night. No, really. He spent little time and money in New Hampshire and still managed a third place finish and two delegates. Adding to the eight that he won in Iowa and he is in second place with a total of 10 delegates. Sen. Cruz is probably going to finish in the top three in South Carolina and could win or come in second in Nevada. He is going to be battling Mr. Trump for the conservative and or anti-establishment GOP vote.
Jeb! Bush.
Mr. Bush should really stop already and get out of the race. But, alas, he will not and continue the delusion that he will somehow wrest the nomination. Even if this race ends up in a brokered convention, I do not think the establishment will force another and weakest of the Bush's down the throats of a GOP electorate that will keep people home. But last night, he and the Right To Rise super PAC spent $35,000,000 for a forth place finish and two delegates. Mr. Bush has the money to go through to Super Tuesday but he does not have the support of the GOP voters. This election cycle it is simple. The GOP voters are repeating a mantra. No More Bushes. And even without Donald Trump in this race, Mr. Bush would barely expand his extremely limited support.
Marco Rubio.
Clearly the disappointment of the night. No doubt that Chris Crispy's, er Christie's, interrogation of him proved effective in this past Saturday's debate. No doubt that some voters were turned off by Sen. Rubio falling into Gov. Christies trap. Some may think that he is part of the establishment when he has spent his career against the establishment. Yes, save for the Gang of Eight so-called comprehensive immigration "reform". I still support Sen. Rubio as the best hope against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. He is a conservative. And rather than run away from a bad performance, he owned it. Very big props for that. But he got no delegates and makes his path to Super Tuesday harder, it is not impossible. Look for Mr. Bush and Sen. Rubio to be duking it out in the next debate.
Chris Christie.
A loser and also one that staked his whole campaign on New Hampshire and finished in sixth place, no delegates. It appears that Gov. Christie is about to exit the race as reported by Politico. If that is the case, his only contribution would be to have thrown Marco Rubio off of his game. Maybe that is a good thing but as noted, timing is everything. We shall see if that is a long-lasting blow Gov. Christie delievered.
Carly Fiorina.
She got screwed, plain and simple. She was not given a slot in this past Saturday's presidential debate and should have. Lack of exposure on such a stage probably relegated her to this poor finish. Could she have done better if she was allowed to debate? Probably. While Mrs. Fiorina is still in the race, it is on life support and may change any day now.
Dr. Ben Carson.
I do not know if he is running a real campaign or trying to get some kind of book deal. The good doctor should not have run for president but a lot of people convinced him to do so and he has. But he finished a dismal two percent and really should think about exiting the race.
A broader thought that I had is that conservatives were the big loser in all of this. Mr. Trump is not running as a limited government constitutionalist but as a populist strongman. Gov. Kasich keeps prating on about taking care of the poor and not exactly opposed to Obamacare. It is clear that Gov. Kasich is running for the compassionate conservative vote and that will not fly with many GOP voters this time around. One can put Mr. Bush in that category as well. of the remaining contenders, only Sens. Cruz and Rubio seem to have a clue about limited government. As I write this, National Review just released this editorial lamenting the same thing.
One thing is for sure.
This battle has not ended in New Hampshire and it does look like a serious one for the immediate future. And this is why delegates matter this time around.
I will just comment for the Democrats, there is no question that one Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She should win the nomination because of her dominance of the superdelegates. But make no mistake, Sen. Sanders and his brand of democratic socialism is finding an audience. There is no doubt that Sen. Sanders can and will win some more states. He will move Mrs. Clinton further to the left and the Democrat party as a whole that way. There is a civil war in the Democrat party and that can not be glossed over.
But this is Right View From The Left Coast and I will make extended thoughts on the Republican race.
And I will do so regarding each of the eight candidates that seriously competed in New Hampshire starting with the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary.
Donald J. Trump.
No question he won and won big. But make no mistake about it. in this case he got a lot of his 35% support from the undeclared or independent voters. Having said that, there is no question that Mr. Trump is the Pat Buchanan with money of this election cycle. He is saying that everything needs to be blown up in Washington and he is the one that can do it. Never mind that he offers little difference between himself and either of the two Democrats running for president. he is against the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll GOP establishment. And that is enough for about 30 to 35% of the GOP vote. Mr. Trump now has 17 delegates as the result of second place in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. Remember that 84% of the delegates are distributed by a form of proportional representation depending on the state. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all states. It will be important come convention time.
John Kasich.
Basically Gov. Kasich finished a distant second and that will do nothing to help him get more money and or endorsements. Gov Kasich will not win in South Carolina. I don't see anywhere he has any opening. He will try to hang on, but without a miracle in South Carolina and Nevada, where does he win on Super Tuesday? But he can keep going on until Super Tuesday and hope to accumulate more than the three delegates he got on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz.
Sen. Cruz ended up having a good night. No, really. He spent little time and money in New Hampshire and still managed a third place finish and two delegates. Adding to the eight that he won in Iowa and he is in second place with a total of 10 delegates. Sen. Cruz is probably going to finish in the top three in South Carolina and could win or come in second in Nevada. He is going to be battling Mr. Trump for the conservative and or anti-establishment GOP vote.
Jeb! Bush.
Mr. Bush should really stop already and get out of the race. But, alas, he will not and continue the delusion that he will somehow wrest the nomination. Even if this race ends up in a brokered convention, I do not think the establishment will force another and weakest of the Bush's down the throats of a GOP electorate that will keep people home. But last night, he and the Right To Rise super PAC spent $35,000,000 for a forth place finish and two delegates. Mr. Bush has the money to go through to Super Tuesday but he does not have the support of the GOP voters. This election cycle it is simple. The GOP voters are repeating a mantra. No More Bushes. And even without Donald Trump in this race, Mr. Bush would barely expand his extremely limited support.
Marco Rubio.
Clearly the disappointment of the night. No doubt that Chris Crispy's, er Christie's, interrogation of him proved effective in this past Saturday's debate. No doubt that some voters were turned off by Sen. Rubio falling into Gov. Christies trap. Some may think that he is part of the establishment when he has spent his career against the establishment. Yes, save for the Gang of Eight so-called comprehensive immigration "reform". I still support Sen. Rubio as the best hope against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. He is a conservative. And rather than run away from a bad performance, he owned it. Very big props for that. But he got no delegates and makes his path to Super Tuesday harder, it is not impossible. Look for Mr. Bush and Sen. Rubio to be duking it out in the next debate.
Chris Christie.
A loser and also one that staked his whole campaign on New Hampshire and finished in sixth place, no delegates. It appears that Gov. Christie is about to exit the race as reported by Politico. If that is the case, his only contribution would be to have thrown Marco Rubio off of his game. Maybe that is a good thing but as noted, timing is everything. We shall see if that is a long-lasting blow Gov. Christie delievered.
Carly Fiorina.
She got screwed, plain and simple. She was not given a slot in this past Saturday's presidential debate and should have. Lack of exposure on such a stage probably relegated her to this poor finish. Could she have done better if she was allowed to debate? Probably. While Mrs. Fiorina is still in the race, it is on life support and may change any day now.
Dr. Ben Carson.
I do not know if he is running a real campaign or trying to get some kind of book deal. The good doctor should not have run for president but a lot of people convinced him to do so and he has. But he finished a dismal two percent and really should think about exiting the race.
A broader thought that I had is that conservatives were the big loser in all of this. Mr. Trump is not running as a limited government constitutionalist but as a populist strongman. Gov. Kasich keeps prating on about taking care of the poor and not exactly opposed to Obamacare. It is clear that Gov. Kasich is running for the compassionate conservative vote and that will not fly with many GOP voters this time around. One can put Mr. Bush in that category as well. of the remaining contenders, only Sens. Cruz and Rubio seem to have a clue about limited government. As I write this, National Review just released this editorial lamenting the same thing.
One thing is for sure.
This battle has not ended in New Hampshire and it does look like a serious one for the immediate future. And this is why delegates matter this time around.
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
2016 New Hampshire GOP Primary - It's On!
The first in the nation primary in the 2016 GOP presidential Death March campaign is on in the state of New Hampshire and we already have some votes.
The voters of Dixville Notch voted 3 - 2 for the Ohio governor, John Kasich over businessman Donald J. Trump.
It does not amount to much of anything but it gives a sense of some of the voting that will take part in the rest of the state.
In your humble blogger's estimation, the polls are all over the place and will probably turn out to be wrong.
Right now, as he has throughout the campaign season, Donald J. Trump is in the lead., In fact if you look at the polling averages over at Real Clear Politics, the Donald has a solid lead over Florida senator, Marco Rubio, leading by about 17 points. I think that the candidate to watch for in terms of potential victory or a very strong second is the aforementioned Gov. Kasich. Gov. Kasich is literally staking it all on a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep his campaign going. As he will tell you, repeatedly, Gov. Kasich has done 106 town hall meetings. It is one of the reasons that Gov. Kasich did so badly in Iowa. What that means to me is that Gov. Kasich does not have the ability to mount a nationwide campaign unless it gets something going out of New Hampshire. Any less than a second place finish and I think that Gov. Kasich is all but done. Same for former Florida governor, Jeb Bush and New Jersey governor, Chris Crispy, er Chirstie.
By all accounts, ground game matters and many believe that Gov. Kasich has one of the best.
Well, how will they finish?
Here is my order of finish, no percentages:
John Kasich
Donald J. Trump
Marco Rubio
Jeb! Bush
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Yep, I think that Gov. Kasich can beat the Donald. But the reason that I do not put any percentages is because I think it will be a close log jam for the top four spots. I don't think whether Gov. Kasich or the Donald would win by much.
Again, like Iowa, this is a state in which the delegates will be awarded proportionally. So as many as five candidates will have some delegates going into the next race of consequence, South Carolina. The GOP primary will be on February 20.
If you are bored and want to read all about the race from the local level, go to the New Hampshire Union Leader. For results later, there is the New Hampshire secretary of state website.
One thing for sure is that New Hampshire will not settle anything in the GOP presidential field. Maybe one or two candidates will drop out. No one really knows for sure.
But one thing is certain.
It makes South Carolina even more important than many thought at the beginning of the campaign season.
The voters of Dixville Notch voted 3 - 2 for the Ohio governor, John Kasich over businessman Donald J. Trump.
It does not amount to much of anything but it gives a sense of some of the voting that will take part in the rest of the state.
In your humble blogger's estimation, the polls are all over the place and will probably turn out to be wrong.
Right now, as he has throughout the campaign season, Donald J. Trump is in the lead., In fact if you look at the polling averages over at Real Clear Politics, the Donald has a solid lead over Florida senator, Marco Rubio, leading by about 17 points. I think that the candidate to watch for in terms of potential victory or a very strong second is the aforementioned Gov. Kasich. Gov. Kasich is literally staking it all on a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep his campaign going. As he will tell you, repeatedly, Gov. Kasich has done 106 town hall meetings. It is one of the reasons that Gov. Kasich did so badly in Iowa. What that means to me is that Gov. Kasich does not have the ability to mount a nationwide campaign unless it gets something going out of New Hampshire. Any less than a second place finish and I think that Gov. Kasich is all but done. Same for former Florida governor, Jeb Bush and New Jersey governor, Chris Crispy, er Chirstie.
By all accounts, ground game matters and many believe that Gov. Kasich has one of the best.
Well, how will they finish?
Here is my order of finish, no percentages:
John Kasich
Donald J. Trump
Marco Rubio
Jeb! Bush
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson
Yep, I think that Gov. Kasich can beat the Donald. But the reason that I do not put any percentages is because I think it will be a close log jam for the top four spots. I don't think whether Gov. Kasich or the Donald would win by much.
Again, like Iowa, this is a state in which the delegates will be awarded proportionally. So as many as five candidates will have some delegates going into the next race of consequence, South Carolina. The GOP primary will be on February 20.
If you are bored and want to read all about the race from the local level, go to the New Hampshire Union Leader. For results later, there is the New Hampshire secretary of state website.
One thing for sure is that New Hampshire will not settle anything in the GOP presidential field. Maybe one or two candidates will drop out. No one really knows for sure.
But one thing is certain.
It makes South Carolina even more important than many thought at the beginning of the campaign season.
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Thoughts On Iowa
Last night the voters spoke in Iowa and delivered victories to Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz.
In terms of delegates, both winners simply received the majority of, not all. Thus Sen. Cruz ended up with eight delegates. Second place finisher, Donald J. Trump, and third place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio ended up with seven delegates each. On the Democrat side, Mrs. Clinton gets 23 delegates and her opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders will get 21 delegates.
A lot of criticism is thrown Iowa's way (as well as New Hampshire) being the first in the nation to vote in the respected party primaries. I think that they are good states to see how a candidate can deal with organization. Clearly Sen. Cruz out hustled all the other Republican candidates. His team singled out the state's conservative, evangelical Christian voters and Sen. Cruz scored their votes. Like it or not, the Donald did not take the old fashioned retail politicking and organization seriously and it showed. Also, sorry but skipping the last debate before the caucus did not help. No matter what excuse the Donald uses to not participate in the debate, many caucus participants said that eventually determined their vote. And who would have thought Marco Rubio would have had such a strong third-place finish looking at the polls?
As I noted last night, clearly there was something called Marcomentum that catapulted Sen. Rubio to nearly a huge upset and forcing the Donald to a potential third place finish. That is breathing life into a campaign that really needs it.
Ted Cruz went one way too long in his victory speech. And while his religious references did not bother me, I thought about the rest of the nation and places that would be totally turned off by such overt Christianity. Sen. Cruz will have to find a way to be less evangelical Christian preacher and more able to really expand the base of his support to those people he, and I, believe he needs to win a general election campaign. We will see if Sen. Cruz can pivot in much more secular New Hampshire.
Donald J. Trump has to begin to take this campaign seriously if he is really in it to win it. The Donald will have to spend real money for organization and broadcast advertising. And he will have to participate in debates no matter what.
Marco Rubio needs to continue to build on the Marcomentum and get to second place in New Hampshire, simple as that.
For the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton has to be humiliated that she could not put Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed "democratic" socialist, away in Iowa. I will say it now. The Democrats are that far to the left that I will not be surprised if Sen. Sanders ends up the Democrat nominee. What we are seeing is the left-wing crack up and the end of the Obama coalition. And the only saving grace for Mrs. Clinton is the whole Super-delegates that are there to guarantee an "establishment" candidate wins the nomination. We shall see but there is no doubt Mrs. Clinton is going to lose badly to the senator from next-door Vermont next Tuesday.
The funny thing about all of this is that it has not made the race any easier for either political party. It is all still up in the air. And maybe for a while.
In terms of delegates, both winners simply received the majority of, not all. Thus Sen. Cruz ended up with eight delegates. Second place finisher, Donald J. Trump, and third place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio ended up with seven delegates each. On the Democrat side, Mrs. Clinton gets 23 delegates and her opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders will get 21 delegates.
A lot of criticism is thrown Iowa's way (as well as New Hampshire) being the first in the nation to vote in the respected party primaries. I think that they are good states to see how a candidate can deal with organization. Clearly Sen. Cruz out hustled all the other Republican candidates. His team singled out the state's conservative, evangelical Christian voters and Sen. Cruz scored their votes. Like it or not, the Donald did not take the old fashioned retail politicking and organization seriously and it showed. Also, sorry but skipping the last debate before the caucus did not help. No matter what excuse the Donald uses to not participate in the debate, many caucus participants said that eventually determined their vote. And who would have thought Marco Rubio would have had such a strong third-place finish looking at the polls?
As I noted last night, clearly there was something called Marcomentum that catapulted Sen. Rubio to nearly a huge upset and forcing the Donald to a potential third place finish. That is breathing life into a campaign that really needs it.
Ted Cruz went one way too long in his victory speech. And while his religious references did not bother me, I thought about the rest of the nation and places that would be totally turned off by such overt Christianity. Sen. Cruz will have to find a way to be less evangelical Christian preacher and more able to really expand the base of his support to those people he, and I, believe he needs to win a general election campaign. We will see if Sen. Cruz can pivot in much more secular New Hampshire.
Donald J. Trump has to begin to take this campaign seriously if he is really in it to win it. The Donald will have to spend real money for organization and broadcast advertising. And he will have to participate in debates no matter what.
Marco Rubio needs to continue to build on the Marcomentum and get to second place in New Hampshire, simple as that.
For the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton has to be humiliated that she could not put Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed "democratic" socialist, away in Iowa. I will say it now. The Democrats are that far to the left that I will not be surprised if Sen. Sanders ends up the Democrat nominee. What we are seeing is the left-wing crack up and the end of the Obama coalition. And the only saving grace for Mrs. Clinton is the whole Super-delegates that are there to guarantee an "establishment" candidate wins the nomination. We shall see but there is no doubt Mrs. Clinton is going to lose badly to the senator from next-door Vermont next Tuesday.
The funny thing about all of this is that it has not made the race any easier for either political party. It is all still up in the air. And maybe for a while.
Monday, February 01, 2016
CRUZ WINS IOWA
Texas senator Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are the projected winners according to the Ace of Spades Decision Desk.
The big loser is . . .the Donald. Oh yeah, and probably Hilary Clinton as well.
What?! Mrs. Clinton?!
Well, as of this writing Mrs. Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are essentially tied at 50%. Some guy named Martin O'Malley who had not even polled a full percent may keep Sen. Sanders from victory. Oh yeah, and he dropped out of the race.
Stay tuned for that one.
On the GOP side, Sen. Cruz vanquished the gasbag from New York City, Donald J. Trump and with relative ease as well.
As of this writing, here is the total
Ted Cruz: 47,510 28%
Donald J. Trump: 41,812 24%
Marco Rubio: 39,599 23%
I am not even bothering with the rest of the field as they are irrelevant.
Here is one for you.
Only 2,213 votes separate Mr. Trump from the Florida senator, Marco Rubio. While 99% of the votes are in and it is doubtful, it is a slight possibility that Sen. Rubio can overtake Mr. Trump for second place and more delegates. All three will have some delegates on the road to New Hampshire in one week.
There really is some Marcomentum as the last Real Clear Politics average had Sen. Rubio at 17% and he should finish with 23, maybe 24% of the vote. I hope that carries on to New Hampshire.
And what about the Donald?!
Maybe when all is said and done, two things will stand out.
One is that Mr. Trump should not have skipped that last debate this past Thursday night. And maybe, just maybe the whole Trump thing is overblown and we are settling into a race between Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio that still may go all the way to Cleveland.
Oh, and already the Cruz win has claimed a casualty as the former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, is calling it quits. Look for the Rev. Mike to endorse the Donald sometime this week.
The voters have spoken in Iowa and now, on to New Hampshire next week.
The big loser is . . .the Donald. Oh yeah, and probably Hilary Clinton as well.
What?! Mrs. Clinton?!
Well, as of this writing Mrs. Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are essentially tied at 50%. Some guy named Martin O'Malley who had not even polled a full percent may keep Sen. Sanders from victory. Oh yeah, and he dropped out of the race.
Stay tuned for that one.
On the GOP side, Sen. Cruz vanquished the gasbag from New York City, Donald J. Trump and with relative ease as well.
As of this writing, here is the total
Ted Cruz: 47,510 28%
Donald J. Trump: 41,812 24%
Marco Rubio: 39,599 23%
I am not even bothering with the rest of the field as they are irrelevant.
Here is one for you.
Only 2,213 votes separate Mr. Trump from the Florida senator, Marco Rubio. While 99% of the votes are in and it is doubtful, it is a slight possibility that Sen. Rubio can overtake Mr. Trump for second place and more delegates. All three will have some delegates on the road to New Hampshire in one week.
There really is some Marcomentum as the last Real Clear Politics average had Sen. Rubio at 17% and he should finish with 23, maybe 24% of the vote. I hope that carries on to New Hampshire.
And what about the Donald?!
Maybe when all is said and done, two things will stand out.
One is that Mr. Trump should not have skipped that last debate this past Thursday night. And maybe, just maybe the whole Trump thing is overblown and we are settling into a race between Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio that still may go all the way to Cleveland.
Oh, and already the Cruz win has claimed a casualty as the former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, is calling it quits. Look for the Rev. Mike to endorse the Donald sometime this week.
The voters have spoken in Iowa and now, on to New Hampshire next week.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
The Des Moines Register Poll Has Good News For The Top 3
This really is it folks as the last The Des Moines Register poll before Monday's caucus just came out a while ago.
And while it does show Donald J. Trump in the lead with 28%, Sen. Ted Cruz is not far behind at 23% and trailing in third place is Sen. Marco Rubio with 15%. Which means that all should get some of the 30 delegates up for grabs in this state.
Each of the top three candidates can point to some good news for their team.
For the Donald, his support is the most solid at 71%. And 50% think that the Donald will actually be feared by foreign leaders the most. But the downside is that many feel the Donald is not the most knowledgeable or will be respected by friends of the United States.
In regard to Sen. Cruz, he has a higher enthusiasm rating to be the GOP nominee compared to the Donald. Sen. Cruz is in positive territory at 56% while the Donald is at 44%. Sen. Rubio leads that field at 58%. Se. Cruz also is sky-high in favorability ratings at 65% compared to the Donald's 50%. Sen. Cruz is also strong as a second choice at 17% while the Donald only manages a seven percent second choice in a caucus where people can and do change their minds at the last minute.
The good news for Sen. Rubio is that people would be very inclined to be with him if he ends up winning the GOP nod with 58% of those voters. And Sen. Rubio has strong favorability rating at 70%. The problem for Sen. Rubio is that it has not translated to potential votes in the caucus.
This is usually the most reliable of the polls and does not change my prediction that Sen. Ted Cruz will win the caucus, Donald J. Trump will come in second and Sen. Marco Rubio third.
In less than 48 hours we will finally see the voting begin and the hand wringing fire up on all sides.
NOTE:
I typed in the wrong numbers of the poll results. I have corrected that error.
And while it does show Donald J. Trump in the lead with 28%, Sen. Ted Cruz is not far behind at 23% and trailing in third place is Sen. Marco Rubio with 15%. Which means that all should get some of the 30 delegates up for grabs in this state.
Each of the top three candidates can point to some good news for their team.
For the Donald, his support is the most solid at 71%. And 50% think that the Donald will actually be feared by foreign leaders the most. But the downside is that many feel the Donald is not the most knowledgeable or will be respected by friends of the United States.
In regard to Sen. Cruz, he has a higher enthusiasm rating to be the GOP nominee compared to the Donald. Sen. Cruz is in positive territory at 56% while the Donald is at 44%. Sen. Rubio leads that field at 58%. Se. Cruz also is sky-high in favorability ratings at 65% compared to the Donald's 50%. Sen. Cruz is also strong as a second choice at 17% while the Donald only manages a seven percent second choice in a caucus where people can and do change their minds at the last minute.
The good news for Sen. Rubio is that people would be very inclined to be with him if he ends up winning the GOP nod with 58% of those voters. And Sen. Rubio has strong favorability rating at 70%. The problem for Sen. Rubio is that it has not translated to potential votes in the caucus.
This is usually the most reliable of the polls and does not change my prediction that Sen. Ted Cruz will win the caucus, Donald J. Trump will come in second and Sen. Marco Rubio third.
In less than 48 hours we will finally see the voting begin and the hand wringing fire up on all sides.
NOTE:
I typed in the wrong numbers of the poll results. I have corrected that error.
Iowa 2016 Republican Edition
Monday is the big day as the Iowa voters finally will caucus and get the GOP presidential nomination show on the road.
This is a helpful guide as to how the caucus actually works. It is not a primary and is somewhat byzantine in how delegates are eventually chosen. One thing that it is not is a winner-take-all caucus. Delegates are chosen based on the percentage of votes any given candidate receives. Thus More than likely the top three finishers will walk away with delegates and possibly power at a possibly brokered GOP convention in Cleveland later this year.
One bit of digression that is important to note is that most states in the past were winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Not this time. A full 84% of the delegates will be chosen by a form of proportional representation. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Thus it is possible that fewer candidates will simply drop out as in the past. It is possible that it could be a three-way race all the way to Cleveland and no one candidate will have the 1,237 delegates needed for a first-ballot victory. It is possible no one will be close enough in the end.
So back to Iowa.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, yes Donald J. Trump still leads all candidates with 31% of the vote. Texas senator Ted Cruz is a strong second with 25% and Florida senator Marco Rubio is a surging third place with about 14%. The rest of those still standing are in the single digits.
But history shows, and this year is no exception, that as much as 40% of the people who will actually caucus can change their minds right up to caucus night.
What does that mean?
Well, it possibly hurts the Donald more than anyone. Since he decided to skip the last debate this past Thursday and host a hastily-staged support for veteran-themed event, the potential caucus goers do not like that disrespect. It was something that Ronald Reagan regretted when he skipped the last Iowa debate in 1980. Mr. Reagan lost and it lead to the eventual sacking of his campaign manager, John Sears. That is something when people point that out to defend the Donald and his decision to bail because he could not take Fox News channel's Megan Kelly and her possible pointed questions that he might actually have to answer.
Not having the Donald on the debate stage helped all of the candidates. But probably helped Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb! Bush more than the others.
There is a school of thought that a serious caucus attender will have heard all of the candidates at least once in person during this Death March of a campaign season. They make up their mind and then get to the caucus site and hear all those from the different campaigns and some just change their mind right there on the spot. While 40% seems to be a high number, it is the way that a caucus works. Yeah, it is a little messy but truly democracy in action.
What do I think will happen on Monday night?
It will be a nail-biter but I think that Sen. Cruz will finish first. Then it is the battle for the scraps and that will be between the Donald and Sen. Rubio. My guess is that Sen. Rubio could easily surge to second place based on the past. But more than likely the Donald will finish second and Sen. Rubio a very strong third. The rest? Well, it won't matter except for Jeb! and his millions that he can stay in hoping that there will be a dreaded brokered convention.
Then it is on to New Hampshire only a week later.
The 2016 presidential Death March campaign is finally going to the caucus goers and the voters and not a moment too soon.
This is a helpful guide as to how the caucus actually works. It is not a primary and is somewhat byzantine in how delegates are eventually chosen. One thing that it is not is a winner-take-all caucus. Delegates are chosen based on the percentage of votes any given candidate receives. Thus More than likely the top three finishers will walk away with delegates and possibly power at a possibly brokered GOP convention in Cleveland later this year.
One bit of digression that is important to note is that most states in the past were winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Not this time. A full 84% of the delegates will be chosen by a form of proportional representation. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Thus it is possible that fewer candidates will simply drop out as in the past. It is possible that it could be a three-way race all the way to Cleveland and no one candidate will have the 1,237 delegates needed for a first-ballot victory. It is possible no one will be close enough in the end.
So back to Iowa.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, yes Donald J. Trump still leads all candidates with 31% of the vote. Texas senator Ted Cruz is a strong second with 25% and Florida senator Marco Rubio is a surging third place with about 14%. The rest of those still standing are in the single digits.
But history shows, and this year is no exception, that as much as 40% of the people who will actually caucus can change their minds right up to caucus night.
What does that mean?
Well, it possibly hurts the Donald more than anyone. Since he decided to skip the last debate this past Thursday and host a hastily-staged support for veteran-themed event, the potential caucus goers do not like that disrespect. It was something that Ronald Reagan regretted when he skipped the last Iowa debate in 1980. Mr. Reagan lost and it lead to the eventual sacking of his campaign manager, John Sears. That is something when people point that out to defend the Donald and his decision to bail because he could not take Fox News channel's Megan Kelly and her possible pointed questions that he might actually have to answer.
Not having the Donald on the debate stage helped all of the candidates. But probably helped Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb! Bush more than the others.
There is a school of thought that a serious caucus attender will have heard all of the candidates at least once in person during this Death March of a campaign season. They make up their mind and then get to the caucus site and hear all those from the different campaigns and some just change their mind right there on the spot. While 40% seems to be a high number, it is the way that a caucus works. Yeah, it is a little messy but truly democracy in action.
What do I think will happen on Monday night?
It will be a nail-biter but I think that Sen. Cruz will finish first. Then it is the battle for the scraps and that will be between the Donald and Sen. Rubio. My guess is that Sen. Rubio could easily surge to second place based on the past. But more than likely the Donald will finish second and Sen. Rubio a very strong third. The rest? Well, it won't matter except for Jeb! and his millions that he can stay in hoping that there will be a dreaded brokered convention.
Then it is on to New Hampshire only a week later.
The 2016 presidential Death March campaign is finally going to the caucus goers and the voters and not a moment too soon.
Monday, April 20, 2015
Birtherism: The Cancer That Won't Go Away
Oh I know that many people will suggest that birtherism, the belief that the Dear Leader, President Obama, is nothing but a bunch a crazy right-wingers wanting to delegitimize his presidency.
I'm here to tell you that in fact, birtherism is alive and well and involved with some announced and non-announced candidates for the Republican presidential nomination.
It is a cancer that will not go away.
Here are some of the names that the birthers are saying are "not qualified" to be president of the United States:
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida)
Gov. Nikki Haley (R-South Carolina)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-Louisiana)
Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-Nevada)
Now two, Sens. Cruz and Rubio, are announced candidates. Gov. Haley is not going to run but could be a possible serious contender for vice-president. Same for Gov. Sandoval. Only Gov. Jindal will probably make a serious run at the Republican nomination.
I suppose that birthers will make a serious claim that there is nothing partisan about their zeal to make sure that all candidates and potential candidates meet the requirements for being president. But I do notice all do not exactly have WASPy-sounding names.
So what are the constitutional requirements for being a potential president?
It's right here in Article 2, section 1 and paragraph 5:
No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.
Pretty simple and straight forward, right? And since the current occupant of the White House was born in the then new state of Hawai'i in 1961 and his mother was a citizen of the United States, the first two requirements are met. And yes, the Dear Leader, President Obama, has lived in the United States for 14 years and was a bit north of 35 years old when elected.
So what is the beef of the birthers?
Since they can't, although some do, harp on the "real" birth certificate, the main thrust is the meaning of being a "natural born citizen". This is basically what the birthers say not only disqualifies the current occupant of the White House, but a slew of Republicans that want to replace him. One thing that this conveniently ignores is the 1790 Naturalization Act. As well as the 14th Amendment that not only expanded who could be a citizen, which at the time was very limited and essentially whites or Europeans only. Essentially, for the majority of birthers, the main problem for the current occupant of the White House, the Dear Leader, President Obama, and the aforementioned above is that while they may all have been born in the United States and or have at least one American citizen parent, both parents are not United States citizens and that should disqualify the Dear Leader, President Obama and the aforementioned above.
While the current birther movement gets all the publicity, this is nowhere near the first time a potential president's citizenship and or birth has been questioned. Of the nine mentioned in the link, only two became president and that would be Republican Chester A. Arthur and Democrat Barack H. Obama.
Why has the current birtherism been even given any credibility in the first place?
Well, it was not a Republican effort to discredit the Dear Leader, President Obama. In fact as the linked article points out, it was the Hillary Clinton 2008 presidential campaign that decided to go for the jugular and throw the kitchen sink to discredit Mr. Obama. Here is a relevant point:
That theory first emerged in the spring of 2008, as Clinton supporters circulated an anonymous email questioning Obama’s citizenship.
“Barack Obama’s mother was living in Kenya with his Arab-African father late in her pregnancy. She was not allowed to travel by plane then, so Barack Obama was born there and his mother then took him to Hawaii to register his birth,” asserted one chain email that surfaced on the urban legend site Snopes.com in April 2008
That theory first emerged in the spring of 2008, as Clinton supporters circulated an anonymous email questioning Obama’s citizenship.
“Barack Obama’s mother was living in Kenya with his Arab-African father late in her pregnancy. She was not allowed to travel by plane then, so Barack Obama was born there and his mother then took him to Hawaii to register his birth,” asserted one chain email that surfaced on the urban legend site Snopes.com in April 2008
And let's not forget that Team Hillary was, not one bit of doubt in my mind, behind this infamous photo of Mr. Obama in full Islamic garb.
Yet some fringe conservatives and or Republicans have kept this whole birtherism nonsense going and going. And now like a cancer kept at bay, birtherism is metastasizing way into the Republican field. And if one of those aforementioned above should become the Republican nominee, it will be a nagging enough diversion to keep the leftywhore media amused.
It is time to stop this birtherism right now. All the candidates, announced and unannounced are qualified to be potential presidents. Even Ted Cruz, who was born in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, to an AMERICAN mother is qualified under the constitution and subsequent laws.
You know, there are actual and real issues that all candidates should be vetted on. Too many to list here. But where they were born and if they are "natural-born citizens" or not are not one of them.
I'm here to tell you that in fact, birtherism is alive and well and involved with some announced and non-announced candidates for the Republican presidential nomination.
It is a cancer that will not go away.
Here are some of the names that the birthers are saying are "not qualified" to be president of the United States:
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida)
Gov. Nikki Haley (R-South Carolina)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-Louisiana)
Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-Nevada)
Now two, Sens. Cruz and Rubio, are announced candidates. Gov. Haley is not going to run but could be a possible serious contender for vice-president. Same for Gov. Sandoval. Only Gov. Jindal will probably make a serious run at the Republican nomination.
I suppose that birthers will make a serious claim that there is nothing partisan about their zeal to make sure that all candidates and potential candidates meet the requirements for being president. But I do notice all do not exactly have WASPy-sounding names.
So what are the constitutional requirements for being a potential president?
It's right here in Article 2, section 1 and paragraph 5:
No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.
Pretty simple and straight forward, right? And since the current occupant of the White House was born in the then new state of Hawai'i in 1961 and his mother was a citizen of the United States, the first two requirements are met. And yes, the Dear Leader, President Obama, has lived in the United States for 14 years and was a bit north of 35 years old when elected.
So what is the beef of the birthers?
Since they can't, although some do, harp on the "real" birth certificate, the main thrust is the meaning of being a "natural born citizen". This is basically what the birthers say not only disqualifies the current occupant of the White House, but a slew of Republicans that want to replace him. One thing that this conveniently ignores is the 1790 Naturalization Act. As well as the 14th Amendment that not only expanded who could be a citizen, which at the time was very limited and essentially whites or Europeans only. Essentially, for the majority of birthers, the main problem for the current occupant of the White House, the Dear Leader, President Obama, and the aforementioned above is that while they may all have been born in the United States and or have at least one American citizen parent, both parents are not United States citizens and that should disqualify the Dear Leader, President Obama and the aforementioned above.
While the current birther movement gets all the publicity, this is nowhere near the first time a potential president's citizenship and or birth has been questioned. Of the nine mentioned in the link, only two became president and that would be Republican Chester A. Arthur and Democrat Barack H. Obama.
Why has the current birtherism been even given any credibility in the first place?
Well, it was not a Republican effort to discredit the Dear Leader, President Obama. In fact as the linked article points out, it was the Hillary Clinton 2008 presidential campaign that decided to go for the jugular and throw the kitchen sink to discredit Mr. Obama. Here is a relevant point:
That theory first emerged in the spring of 2008, as Clinton supporters circulated an anonymous email questioning Obama’s citizenship.
“Barack Obama’s mother was living in Kenya with his Arab-African father late in her pregnancy. She was not allowed to travel by plane then, so Barack Obama was born there and his mother then took him to Hawaii to register his birth,” asserted one chain email that surfaced on the urban legend site Snopes.com in April 2008
That theory first emerged in the spring of 2008, as Clinton supporters circulated an anonymous email questioning Obama’s citizenship.
“Barack Obama’s mother was living in Kenya with his Arab-African father late in her pregnancy. She was not allowed to travel by plane then, so Barack Obama was born there and his mother then took him to Hawaii to register his birth,” asserted one chain email that surfaced on the urban legend site Snopes.com in April 2008
And let's not forget that Team Hillary was, not one bit of doubt in my mind, behind this infamous photo of Mr. Obama in full Islamic garb.
It is time to stop this birtherism right now. All the candidates, announced and unannounced are qualified to be potential presidents. Even Ted Cruz, who was born in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, to an AMERICAN mother is qualified under the constitution and subsequent laws.
You know, there are actual and real issues that all candidates should be vetted on. Too many to list here. But where they were born and if they are "natural-born citizens" or not are not one of them.
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