I Have Given Up On Fox News

For the most part, it is true.
I, your humble blogger have given up on watching Fox News.
Before I explain why, there are two shows worth your time to watch.
That would be Special Report with Brett Baier and The Greg Gutfeld show on Saturday nights.
After that, you are better off looking at the Fox News website or even any other news source.
The question is, what gives? Why would I, a conservative that believes much of what we call the Mainstream Media or MSM, is left-biased give up on the only conservative if not equal time to the left-wing media bias?
Because of the Fox News cheer leading for one Donald J. Trump and his chaotic quest for the Republican nomination for president.
And folks, now that Mr. Trump in the presumptive GOP nominee,  it is only going to get worse before it gets better.
Until this election cycle, I found Fox News to be fair to all the GOP candidates in each consequential election cycle. The 2004 one does not count for then President George W. Bush had no Republican opposition. There was no cheer leading for one candidate over the other. Once the nominee became clear, yes there was no question that the opinion hosts were going to be for the GOP over the Democrat no matter who or she was.
But this cycle it became very clear from the moment that Mr. Trump made his bizarre announcement of candidacy to now that the opinion hosts were almost falling in line and more like fawning in line to Mr. Trump. It has, dare I say it, seeped into the news coverage as well. maybe not in the same way of say Sean Hannity, but there is no question that Fox News Channel can now be called the Trump News Channel.
Take the prime time lineup.
Starting at 4:00 p. m. (All times are Pacific as after all, this is Right View From The Left Coast!) with Greta Van Sustren. The question I have is what member of the Trump family does she NOT have on?! Yes it is clear that she is a solid Trumpette.
Then there is as radio talker Mark Levin calls Bill O'Reilly, the Eight O'clocker (Five O'clocker here on the left coast). He will claim that he is down the middle whenever he interviews Mr. Trump. Which seems like every day to me. But in the same breath he will say that he is trying to help Mr. Trump whenever he is in trouble. Hey, Eight O'clocker! You're job is not to help Mr.Trump in any way but to ask really tough questions and get answers. Especially during the heat of the primaries. No, you are not down the middle with Mr. Trump, Eight O'clocker. You are and have been an enabler.
But not Meghan Kelly and the Kelly File at 6:00 p. m. She has been tough as nails and Mr. Trump has not liked it. There is a truce of sorts between Mrs. Kelly and Mr. Trump, but overall it is clear that Mr. Trump knows he will be challenged and he does not like that in the least.
But I can't even watch Mrs. Kelly the way that I used to
Which leaves  the aforementioned Mr. Hannity.
I have to say that I liked when it was Hannity and Colmes. I guess that Alan Colmes just got tired of being Sean's punching bag night after night. I do not know. But since it has just become Hannity, it is just unwatchable. And Mr. Hannity fawning and drooling over Mr. Trump is rather revolting. For years on radio and television, Mr. Hannity has railed against those that he believes are not real conservatives. He has held himself up as the real deal. Yet once Mr. Trump announced, he jumped on that Trump Train head first.
Now there are those on the weekends, led by Jeannine Pirro, who are also on the Trump Train in nauseating fashion.
Look, they have the right to be open as to who they favor as they are opinion people, not the news people. But what I expect, especially when voters are making up their minds in the primaries and caucuses is not cheer leading for one candidate. I expect when other candidates are getting face time that they are not given an inquisition and the candidate of favor being fawned upon.
As a conservative this all reminds me of what we righteously accused the MSM of doing with one Barack Hussein Obama. Of fawning. Of not asking tough questions. Of making excuses when a certain candidate makes numerous faux pas. Of elevating someone that we did not think was all that qualified to be president.
I feel that I am living in an alternate universe when it comes to Fox News and Donald J. Trump.
But to be fair, the MSM does not get a pass. They have at a level given Mr. Trump a free ride. But the Trump News Channel, er Fox News Channel has taken it to another level.
My biggest concern is that Fox News has long been seen as a right-wing outlet. I would argue that it has simply been equal time to the left-dominated MSM. But this Trump-love, no Trumpaganda is too much for this conservative.
BTW, why to I recommend Special Report and Greg Gutfeld to still watch?
Special Report is Washington based and has been truly down the middle. And any show that features Charles Krauthammer is a must-watch.
Mr. Gutfeld is the only consistent opponent of Mr. Trump and has had the testicles to call his fellow hosts out on their fawning of Mr. Trump. Mr. Gutfeld needs to be given support.
This conservative has given up, for the most part, on Fox News for selling out to the Trump Train.
I hope that Fox News comes back after the election but until then, one is no worse watching or getting news from an MSM source.

Why This Conservative Has Taken A Blogging Break

Yeah, it has been a while since I last posted anything.
The reality is that this conservative was driven away from the keyboard because of the prospect of seeing the 2016 election a race with Republican presumptive nominee, Donald J. Trump, and the more than likely Democrat nominee, Hillary Clinton.
I am one of those 60% plus Americans that is not happy with my party, the Republican party, choice for president. I certainly will not vote for Mrs. Clinton.
So I have been mulling where does my vote go this election.
It will not go to Mr. Trump no matter how conservative he tries to sound.
As noted, it will not go to Mrs. Clinton unless she somehow totally changes in almost every way and essentially becomes a Republican.
In the aftermath of Mr. Trump becoming the presumptive GOP nominee, my first thought is that I will write in a past candidate in November. But unless he or she were to make a case for such a candidacy, it will be a wasted vote.
My current position is that if I cast a vote for president at all it will be the newly-minted Libertarian candidate, former New Mexico Republican governor, Gary Johnson.
But I am still mulling over whether or not I will even participate in the presidential aspect of voting. I mean, I will still vote for the GOP for congress, local contests and the like. After all, the local elections are in many ways more important that the presidency. At least in a federal republic that is the United States, that is how it should be.
One thing is that I live in the now deep-Blue state of California. We have a race for senate this year as Sen. Barbara Ma'am Boxer is finally leaving the senate stage.
But California has found a way to possibly have the race to replace Sen. Ma'am Boxer be between Democrats only in both the primary and general election.
You see, the once Golden State now has a system of voting that, other than the presidency, in the primary it is the top two that go on to the general election. No matter what political party. Thus the race seems to be between the current Democrat attorney general, Kamala Harris, and Democrat congressman, Loretta Sanchez. Yes, there are Republicans running. But the fact is the only commercials I see are for Miss Harris and Mrs. Sanchez. I will vote for Republican Tom Del Beccarro in the primary hoping that he makes the general election. If not, and no Republican makes the general, I will be a disenfranchised voter and probably skip the senate race as well as the presidential race.
This is the dilemma for conservatives particularly in a state like California.
We may be skipping both the presidential and senate race in November. Because many of us believe that Mr. Trump is not particularly conservative. And why would we vote for a Democrat in a senate race?
Thus it made me think what is the point about writing about politics?
Then I realized that this blog is not just about politics but what passes for culture and many other current events.
And while I may rarely write about the presidential race, there is so much that is worth writing about.
That is what you will get from here on out.
This conservative is back.

Nevada Caucus-It's On!

Right now the Republican voters of Nevada are going to caucus for either Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio or Donald J. Trump.
It will be a late night back East for the caucus does not close until 9pm Pacific Standard Time. Turnout is supposed to be about 10% and the unreliable polling does show the Donald far ahead. But Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are putting in a serious effort here. It is the last test for all the candidates before the 13-state Super Tuesday primary a week from today.
Since I am a partisan in this, I urge all Nevada Republicans to show up and caucus for Sen. Rubio.
There will be a separate post about results as they come in. If you can't wait, here is a page for up to the minute results. 

What Do The Trump Voters Want?

I'm totally honest here in the question above.
What exactly do the people who have been or are supporting one Donald J. Trump really want from their political savior?
Some interesting polling coming from the Donald's recent win in South Carolina over the weekend seems to contradict the issue that the Donald is really running on.
That is illegal immigration.
It appears that the majority, yes the majority, of those that participated in the Republican primary favor a pathway to citizenship and or legal status for illegal aliens.
Huh?!
So while the Donald is averaging about 30% of the vote in the three primaries that have been held, it is a minority within a minority. The majority of Republicans in a state like South Carolina favor some kind of legal status for those here illegally but have, basically, been working and earning a paycheck.
What is clear is that the vocal minority is angry. And voting for the Donald is what unifies the angry. The angry that want to close the border. The angry that want to bar Muslims from entering the United States. At least for a while. After that, well it gets pretty murky.
See in the beginning of the Donald's campaign, the Donald was trying to win over conservatives by having seemingly a Come-to-Jesus conversion to a solid conservative position on a variety of issues as noted in this post from Bookworm Room. 
Many people just liked that the Donald was taking on the sclerosis of the Washington Beltway GOP. Yeah! Telling it like it is! And to a point I agree. The Beltway GOP oversold what they could and or could not do in regards to the Dear Leader, President Obama. They have never admitted such and deserve scorn and ridicule. Even the writer of the link admits that was a attractive aspect of the Donald and why he got him.
But then the post compares and contrasts what the Donald has done and or said in the past, it is damning to a thinking person.
There is a meme going around Facebook as an example trying to prove that the Donald has been a registered Republican since 1980. There is even something that looks official. The only problem is that what the record is that the Donald has been a registered voter and could participate in scheduled elections. The Donald, by his own admission, has been like crap on his party registration. All over the place.
Let's not forget that the Donald has also, again by his own admission, given money to both parties. And more to the Democrats than the Republicans. The Donald gave money to Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi that they used to retake control of congress in 2006.
When it comes to socialized medicine, the Donald is pretty much all in. He makes a lying claim that people are literally dying in the streets and that will not happen under a Trump presidency. That is right out of, well Bernie Sanders playbook.
The writer of the linked post does an excellent job on explaining the difference between eminent domain for the public good vs. a crony capitalist goal (of which the Donald is a YUGE crony capitalist).
There is much more, but for people that call themselves conservative, how in the name of all is holy can you support Donald J. Trump?
Is it really just about illegal immigration? Is that really all you care about? You really think that the Donald is going to do what he says? How? With congress? Good luck with that one. If not, are you down with a President Donald simply going the executive order route? Or is it that your anger is that of a form of political road rage? Not thinking but maybe going off half-cocked and spewing out because it will make you temporarily feel better?
Before you scream that I am for the Gang of Eight type of legislation, nope, not in the least. We do have to deport those here illegally and committing illegal activity. Period. But there is no way we can, or should, do anything sweeping. It all has to happen piece by piece. There is no magic bullet. Really, there is not. Unless you are willing to give everything one believes in up, then I get the support of the Donald.
Please do not try to claim that the Donald is a conservative. He is not. Your issue is one and it is a minority view within a minority of voters.
What the Trump voters want is the same thing that propels people like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse Ventura to power. A magic fix to big problems that cannot just be waved away.

Thoughts On New Hampshire

Last night was an earthquake for both the Democrat and Republican parties as two outsiders swept to victory in the persons of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Donald J. Trump in the New Hampshire presidential primaries.
I will just comment for the Democrats, there is no question that one Hillary Clinton is in trouble. She should win the nomination because of her dominance of the superdelegates. But make no mistake, Sen. Sanders and his brand of democratic socialism is finding an audience. There is no doubt that Sen. Sanders can and will win some more states. He will move Mrs. Clinton further to the left and the Democrat party as a whole that way. There is a civil war in the Democrat party and that can not be glossed over.
But this is Right View From The Left Coast and I will make extended thoughts on the Republican race.
And I will do so regarding each of the eight candidates that seriously competed in New Hampshire starting with the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary.

Donald J. Trump.
No question he won and won big. But make no mistake about it. in this case he got a lot of his 35% support from the undeclared or independent voters. Having said that, there is no question that Mr. Trump is the Pat Buchanan with money of this election cycle. He is saying that everything needs to be blown up in Washington and he is the one that can do it. Never mind that he offers little difference between himself and either of the two Democrats running for president. he is against the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll GOP establishment. And that is enough for about 30 to 35% of the GOP vote. Mr. Trump now has 17 delegates as the result of second place in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. Remember that 84% of the delegates are distributed by a form of proportional representation depending on the state. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all states. It will be important come convention time.

John Kasich.
Basically Gov. Kasich finished a distant second and that will do nothing to help him get more money and or endorsements. Gov Kasich will not win in South Carolina. I don't see anywhere he has any opening. He will try to hang on, but without a miracle in South Carolina and Nevada, where does he win on Super Tuesday? But he can keep going on until Super Tuesday and hope to accumulate more than the three delegates he got on Tuesday.

Ted Cruz.
Sen. Cruz ended up having a good night. No, really. He spent little time and money in New Hampshire and still managed a third place finish and two delegates. Adding to the eight that he won in Iowa and he is in second place with a total of 10 delegates. Sen. Cruz is probably going to finish in the top three in South Carolina and could win or come in second in Nevada. He is going to be battling Mr. Trump for the conservative and or anti-establishment GOP vote.

Jeb! Bush.
Mr. Bush should really stop already and get out of the race. But, alas, he will not and continue the delusion that he will somehow wrest the nomination. Even if this race ends up in a brokered convention, I do not think the establishment will force another and weakest of the Bush's down the throats of a GOP electorate that will keep people home. But last night, he and the Right To Rise super PAC spent $35,000,000 for a forth place finish and two delegates. Mr. Bush has the money to go through to Super Tuesday but he does not have the support of the GOP voters. This election cycle it is simple. The GOP voters are repeating a mantra. No More Bushes. And even without Donald Trump in this race, Mr. Bush would barely expand his extremely limited support.

Marco Rubio.
Clearly the disappointment of the night. No doubt that Chris Crispy's, er Christie's, interrogation of him proved effective in this past Saturday's debate. No doubt that some voters were turned off by Sen. Rubio falling into Gov. Christies trap. Some may think that he is part of the establishment when he has spent his career against the establishment. Yes, save for the Gang of Eight so-called comprehensive immigration "reform". I still support Sen. Rubio as the best hope against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. He is a conservative. And rather than run away from a bad performance, he owned it. Very big props for that. But he got no delegates and makes his path to Super Tuesday harder, it is not impossible. Look for Mr. Bush and Sen. Rubio to be duking it out in the next debate.

Chris Christie.
A loser and also one that staked his whole campaign on New Hampshire and finished in sixth place, no delegates. It appears that Gov. Christie is about to exit the race as reported by Politico. If that is the case, his only contribution would be to have thrown Marco Rubio off of his game. Maybe that is a good thing but as noted, timing is everything. We shall see if that is a long-lasting blow Gov. Christie delievered.

Carly Fiorina.
She got screwed, plain and simple. She was not given a slot in this past Saturday's presidential debate and should have. Lack of exposure on such a stage probably relegated her to this poor finish. Could she have done better if she was allowed to debate? Probably. While Mrs. Fiorina is still in the race, it is on life support and may change any day now.

Dr. Ben Carson.
I do not know if he is running a real campaign or trying to get some kind of book deal. The good doctor should not have run for president but a lot of people convinced him to do so and he has. But he finished a dismal two percent and really should think about exiting the race.

A broader thought that I had is that conservatives were the big loser in all of this. Mr. Trump is not running as a limited government constitutionalist but as a populist strongman. Gov. Kasich keeps prating on about taking care of the poor and not exactly opposed to Obamacare. It is clear that Gov. Kasich is running for the compassionate conservative vote and that will not fly with many GOP voters this time around. One can put Mr. Bush in that category as well. of the remaining contenders, only Sens. Cruz and Rubio seem to have a clue about limited government. As I write this, National Review just released this editorial lamenting the same thing.
One thing is for sure.
This battle has not ended in New Hampshire and it does look like a serious one for the immediate future. And this is why delegates matter this time around.

2016 New Hampshire GOP Primary - It's On!

The first in the nation primary in the 2016 GOP presidential Death March campaign is on in the state of New Hampshire and we already have some votes.
The voters of Dixville Notch voted 3 - 2 for the Ohio governor, John Kasich over businessman Donald J. Trump. 
It does not amount to much of anything but it gives a sense of some of the voting that will take part in the rest of the state.
In your humble blogger's estimation, the polls are all over the place and will probably turn out to be wrong.
Right now, as he has throughout the campaign season, Donald J. Trump is in the lead., In fact if you look at the polling averages over at Real Clear Politics, the Donald has a solid lead over Florida senator, Marco Rubio, leading by about 17 points. I think that the candidate to watch for in terms of potential victory or a very strong second is the aforementioned Gov. Kasich. Gov. Kasich is literally staking it all on a strong showing in New Hampshire to keep his campaign going. As he will tell you, repeatedly, Gov. Kasich has done 106 town hall meetings. It is one of the reasons that Gov. Kasich did so badly in Iowa. What that means to me is that Gov. Kasich does not have the ability to mount a nationwide campaign unless it gets something going out of New Hampshire. Any less than a second place finish and I think that Gov. Kasich is all but done. Same for former Florida governor, Jeb Bush and New Jersey governor, Chris Crispy, er Chirstie.
By all accounts, ground game matters and many believe that Gov. Kasich has one of the best.
Well, how will they finish?
Here is my order of finish, no percentages:

John Kasich
Donald J. Trump
Marco Rubio
Jeb! Bush
Ted Cruz
Chris Christie
Carly Fiorina
Ben Carson

Yep, I think that Gov. Kasich can beat the Donald. But the reason that I do not put any percentages is because I think it will be a close log jam for the top four spots. I don't think whether Gov. Kasich or the Donald would win by much.
Again, like Iowa, this is a state in which the delegates will be awarded proportionally. So as many as five candidates will have some delegates going into the next race of consequence, South Carolina. The GOP primary will be on February 20.
If you are bored and want to read all about the race from the local level, go to the New Hampshire Union Leader. For results later, there is the New Hampshire secretary of state website.
One thing for sure is that New Hampshire will not settle anything in the GOP presidential field. Maybe one or two candidates will drop out. No one really knows for sure.
But one thing is certain.
It makes South Carolina even more important than many thought at the beginning of the campaign season.

Thoughts On Iowa

Last night the voters spoke in Iowa and delivered victories to Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz.
In terms of delegates, both winners simply received the majority of, not all. Thus Sen. Cruz ended up with eight delegates. Second place finisher, Donald J. Trump, and third place finisher, Sen. Marco Rubio ended up with seven delegates each. On the Democrat side, Mrs. Clinton gets 23 delegates and her opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders will get 21 delegates.
A lot of criticism is thrown Iowa's way (as well as New Hampshire) being the first in the nation to vote in the respected party primaries. I think that they are good states to see how a candidate can deal with organization. Clearly Sen. Cruz out hustled all the other Republican candidates. His team singled out the state's conservative, evangelical Christian voters and Sen. Cruz scored their votes. Like it or not, the Donald did not take the old fashioned retail politicking and organization seriously and it showed. Also, sorry but skipping the last debate before the caucus did not help. No matter what excuse the Donald uses to not participate in the debate, many caucus participants said that eventually determined their vote. And who would have thought Marco Rubio would have had such a strong third-place finish looking at the polls?
As I noted last night, clearly there was something called Marcomentum that catapulted Sen. Rubio to nearly a huge upset and forcing the Donald to a potential third place  finish. That is breathing life into a campaign that really needs it.
Ted Cruz went one way too long in his victory speech. And while his religious references did not bother me, I thought about the rest of the nation and places that would be totally turned off by such overt Christianity. Sen. Cruz will have to find a way to be less evangelical Christian preacher and more able to really expand the base of his support to those people he, and I, believe he needs to win a general election campaign. We will see if Sen. Cruz can pivot in much more secular New Hampshire.
Donald J. Trump has to begin to take this campaign seriously if he is really in it to win it. The Donald will have to spend real money for organization and broadcast advertising. And he will have to participate in debates no matter what.
Marco Rubio needs to continue to build on the Marcomentum and get to second place in New Hampshire, simple as that.
For the Democrats, Mrs. Clinton has to be humiliated that she could not put Bernie Sanders, a self-avowed "democratic" socialist, away in Iowa. I will say it now. The Democrats are that far to the left that I will not be surprised if Sen. Sanders ends up the Democrat nominee. What we are seeing is the left-wing crack up and the end of the Obama coalition. And the only saving grace for Mrs. Clinton is the whole Super-delegates that are there to guarantee an "establishment" candidate wins the nomination. We shall see but there is no doubt Mrs. Clinton is going to lose badly to the senator from next-door Vermont next Tuesday.
The funny thing about all of this is that it has not made the race any easier for either political party. It is all still up in the air. And maybe for a while.

CRUZ WINS IOWA

Texas senator Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are the projected winners according to the Ace of Spades Decision Desk. 
The big loser is . . .the Donald. Oh yeah, and probably Hilary Clinton as well.
What?! Mrs. Clinton?!
Well, as of this writing Mrs. Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are essentially tied at 50%. Some guy named Martin O'Malley who had not even polled a full percent may keep Sen. Sanders from victory. Oh yeah, and he dropped out of the race. 
Stay tuned for that one.
On the GOP side, Sen. Cruz vanquished the gasbag from New York City, Donald J. Trump and with relative ease as well.
As of this writing, here is the total

Ted Cruz:                    47,510     28%
Donald J. Trump:         41,812     24%
Marco Rubio:              39,599     23%

I am not even bothering with the rest of the field as they are irrelevant.
Here is one for you.
Only 2,213 votes separate Mr. Trump from the Florida senator, Marco Rubio. While 99% of the votes are in and it is doubtful, it is a slight possibility that Sen. Rubio can overtake Mr. Trump for second place and more delegates. All three will have some delegates on the road to New Hampshire in one week.
There really is some Marcomentum as the last Real Clear Politics average had Sen. Rubio at 17% and he should finish with 23, maybe 24% of the vote. I hope that carries on to New Hampshire.
And what about the Donald?!
Maybe when all is said and done, two things will stand out.
One is that Mr. Trump should not have skipped that last debate this past Thursday night. And maybe, just maybe the whole Trump thing is overblown and we are settling into a race between Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio that still may go all the way to Cleveland.
Oh, and already the Cruz win has claimed a casualty as the former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, is calling it quits. Look for the Rev. Mike to endorse the Donald sometime this week.
The voters have spoken in Iowa and now, on to New Hampshire next week.

The Des Moines Register Poll Has Good News For The Top 3

This really is it folks as the last The Des Moines Register poll before Monday's caucus just came out a while ago. 
And while it does show Donald J. Trump in the lead with 28%, Sen. Ted Cruz is not far behind at 23% and trailing in third place is Sen. Marco Rubio with 15%. Which means that all should get some of the 30 delegates up for grabs in this state.
Each of the top three candidates can point to some good news for their team.
For the Donald, his support is the most solid at 71%. And 50% think that the Donald will actually be feared by foreign leaders the most. But the downside is that many feel the Donald is not the most knowledgeable or will be respected by friends of the United States.
In regard to Sen. Cruz, he has a higher enthusiasm rating to be the GOP nominee compared to the Donald. Sen. Cruz is in positive territory at 56% while the Donald is at 44%. Sen. Rubio leads that field at 58%. Se. Cruz also is sky-high in favorability ratings at 65% compared to the Donald's 50%. Sen. Cruz is also strong as a second choice at 17% while the Donald only manages a seven percent second choice in a caucus where people can and do change their minds at the last minute.
The good news for Sen. Rubio is that people would be very inclined to be with him if he ends up winning the GOP nod with 58% of those voters. And Sen. Rubio has strong favorability rating at 70%. The problem for Sen. Rubio is that it has not translated to potential votes in the caucus.
This is usually the most reliable of the polls and does not change my prediction that Sen. Ted Cruz will win the caucus, Donald J. Trump will come in second and Sen. Marco Rubio  third.
In less than 48 hours we will finally see the voting begin and the hand wringing fire up on all sides.

NOTE:
I typed in the wrong numbers of the poll results. I have corrected that error.

Iowa 2016 Republican Edition

Monday is the big day as the Iowa voters finally will caucus and get the GOP presidential nomination show on the road.
This is a helpful guide as to how the caucus actually works. It is not a primary and is somewhat byzantine in how delegates are eventually chosen. One thing that it is not is a winner-take-all caucus. Delegates are chosen based on the percentage of votes any given candidate receives. Thus More than likely the top three finishers will walk away with delegates and possibly power at a possibly brokered GOP convention in Cleveland later this year.
One bit of digression that is important to note is that most states in the past were winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Not this time. A full 84% of the delegates will be chosen by a form of proportional representation. Only 16% will be from winner-take-all primaries and or caucuses. Thus it is possible that fewer candidates will simply drop out as in the past. It is possible that it could be a three-way race all the way to Cleveland and no one candidate will have the 1,237 delegates needed for a first-ballot victory. It is possible no one will be close enough in the end.
So back to Iowa.
According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, yes Donald J. Trump still leads all candidates with 31% of the vote. Texas senator Ted Cruz is a strong second with 25% and Florida senator Marco Rubio is a surging third place with about 14%. The rest of those still standing are in the single digits.
But history shows, and this year is no exception, that as much as 40% of the people who will actually caucus can change their minds right up to caucus night.
What does that mean?
Well, it possibly hurts the Donald more than anyone. Since he decided to skip the last debate this past Thursday and host a hastily-staged support for veteran-themed event, the potential caucus goers do not like that disrespect. It was something that Ronald Reagan regretted when he skipped the last Iowa debate in 1980. Mr. Reagan lost and it lead to the eventual sacking of his campaign manager, John Sears. That is something when people point that out to defend the Donald and his decision to bail because he could not take Fox News channel's Megan Kelly and her possible pointed questions that he might actually have to answer.
Not having the Donald on the debate stage helped all of the candidates. But probably helped Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb! Bush more than the others.
There is a school of thought that a serious caucus attender will have heard all of the candidates at least once in person during this Death March of a campaign season. They make up their mind and then get to the caucus site and hear all those from the different campaigns and some just change their mind right there on the spot. While 40% seems to be a high number, it is the way that a caucus works. Yeah, it is a little messy but truly democracy in action.
What do I think will happen on Monday night?
It will be a nail-biter but I think that Sen. Cruz will finish first. Then it is the battle for the scraps and that will be between the Donald and Sen. Rubio. My guess is that Sen. Rubio could easily surge to second place based on the past. But more than likely the Donald will finish second and Sen. Rubio a very strong third. The rest? Well, it won't matter except for Jeb! and his millions that he can stay in hoping that there will be a dreaded brokered convention.
Then it is on to New Hampshire only a week later.
The 2016 presidential Death March campaign is finally going to the caucus goers and the voters and not a moment too soon.

The Trump Train Rolls Along To The Cliff

I still do not get it, the Trump Train that is.
It seems that the Donald's support only grows and it is whenever he opens his illogical mouth and shoots off some absurdity.
Is it the fault of the GOP establishment? The Democrats? The Dear Leader, President Obama, himself?
It's all of the above I'm afraid.
The GOP establishment seems more interested in cutting deals, such as the latest budget deal in congress, than ever confronting the Democrats and their titular leader, the president of the United States. Votes should have been had on repealing Obamacare as an example. Yes, the Democrats would fight in the senate and try the filibuster. So what? The GOP leader, Ol' Mitch McConnell, could drop a nuke on the filibuster and make the Dear Leader, President Obama, veto it.
The Dems did this to Gerald Ford after he became president in 1974 and they swept to super-majorities in both houses in the midterm elections that year. The impotent successor to Richard M. Nixon in less than two years as president vetoed a total of 66 bills. Only 12 vetoes were overridden by congress and thus became law. And I will note that a Democrat, one Jimmah Carter, was elected president in 1976.
My point?
It can be done and not hurt in the long run. It inspires a base that is needed to turn out the vote in 2016 no matter who the candidate is. It shows a party that believes in what it runs on.
I get all of that.
I would like to remind my friends who are on that Trump Train thinking that the Donald walks on water and says nothing wrong, there is nothing wrong with having a little political experience when running for office.
Despite the comparisons to one Ronald Wilson Reagan, by the time he made his serious campaign for the presidency in 1976, he had served two successful terms as governor of California, and was able to enact welfare reform before it was cool. He had a record. And he had a lot of serious people supporting the failed '76 effort. Many of those would be influential in his two successful terms as president.
I'll say it.
Donald J. Trump can not and could not shine Ronald Reagan's shoes on a  good day.
Yeah, go ahead and show a picture of Mr. Reagan shaking the Donald's hand once as proof I am wrong.
Policies and ideas matter.
I have written before and will again that the Trump Train is more like the eventual Schwarzenegger Train Wreck.
There is no there there. What proof does ANYONE have that the Donald can do anything that he says he wants to do.Yesterday in an interview, the senate majority leader, Sen. McConnell, said there will never be passage of any Trump plan to ban Muslims entering the United States. Sen. McConnell and congressional leadership is a whole other post. There is no record because while the Donald has never been in any political office. Like Benedict Arnold Schwarzenegger, there is the feeling of somehow we should just trust him.
I don't.
The Donald has no serious policy advisers. His national spokeswoman, Katrina Pierson, seems to be as unserious as he is.
In the end I do believe that the Donald could score some early victories. Or maybe not. The Donald does not have much organization in Iowa, a caucus state. He leads substantively in New Hampshire, but it is essentially an open primary. Think some Democrats won't try to skew the vote there? The Donald could win in South Carolina, but many pols there are making their support clear now that Sen. Goober Graham has left the presidential race.
If your a conservative and Republican, the only way we win is with the most electable CONSERVATIVE in any given race.
And that is not Donald J. Trump and his merry train wreck in the making.

Trump's Muslim Plan A Non-Starter

I get the point that Donald J. Trump is making regarding Muslims coming to the United States and our extremely permissive immigration policy, especially under the Dear Leader, President Obama.
But it is a non-starter for a variety of reasons.
For one, the way that Trump says we can stop Muslims coming to the United States is to simply ask them at the point of customs.
Really?! Does the Donald really think that a Muslim being asked that question is going to answer honestly? Why would they?
And many are not coming to stay but to travel and do business. Are we going to ban people who practice Islam, or at least say they are Muslim, from doing business in the United States? And travel, are we really going to turn away people simply coming to see relatives and or travel and go home? Many do that. Not all stay over their visas.
The insanity of the Donald is that he compares what he proposes to what the paragon of liberalism, one Franklin Delano Roosevelt did in the opening days of the United States entering World War II.
Interning Japanese-American CITIZENS and to a lesser extent German-Americans and Italian-American CITIZENS in concentration camps and taking away their property.
Why many Trump supporters are also pointing out that the former worst president of the United States, Jimmah Carter, banned Iranians from travelling to the United States during the Iranian hostage crisis of 1979-80. Even that is kind of wrong as this points out that the ban was against travelling TO Iran.
What is the pattern in all of that?
The United States took these actions against nationalities, not religions. And even that became questionable especially concerning the Japanese-Americans during World War II. The fact was that it was a total overreaction and did not prove to be effective. We threw the baby out with the bath water.
You know what nations use what Trump is talking about against a nation?
Arab and Islamic nations against Israel. If one has an Israeli passport, don't bother trying to go to a nation outside of Egypt or Jordan, the two Arab-Islamic nations Israel's have relations with.
Is that what we want?
I don't.
There is a way to make the point by simply not accepting refugees on face value. To some that is harsh and xenophobic, but rather than try to cherry pick between Syrian Christians and Muslims, we have to be willing to say no to any at this time.
What should be done is to visit this aspect of immigration without the whole so-called "comprehensive" immigration reform refrain and set very concrete policies for allowing or not allowing refugees into the United States. It is the role of congress and the executive branch. But I suspect that both have very different ideas on how to handle this situation.
But outright banning Muslims coming to and fro is not the same as banning people from nations that are clearly our enemies and or frenimies. My United States passport does not have a place for religion and it should not. Is it the price of living in the type of society we do, a free one? Possibly. But again, if congress and the executive could work out some kind of legislation that could do a better vetting process, it would help.
This brings  me to a new conclusion about the Donald.
I thought I answered the question that the Donald is not a fascist in the traditional sense of the word and he is not.
But he is a strongman type. The Donald is used to getting his way in business and it is totally different from politics in which, like it or not, coalitions are built. He acts and reacts like a businessman that has a set way and expectation.
What is troubling is that man conservatives, myself included, see the current occupant of the White House as a sort of strongman. Yet many Trumpettes do not seem to get that the Donald is the same thing only with an R after the name.
My point is that I do not want to replace one strongman for another. I want to see a constitutionalist in the White House. One that does not want more power but willing to let go of power, especially as in regards to usurping state rights and or obligations via Washington, D. C.
The Trump Muslim plan is a non starter and the reaction of a strongman, not a leader.

If I Am Against Donald Trump, Who Am I For?

I don't think that it is a secret that I support Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for the GOP nomination for president in 2016.
But I also strongly oppose the campaign that one Donald J. Trump has been and continues to run for the same GOP nomination.
A thought came to me when I was on a Republican site on Facebook.
A gentleman was making the case that many of us that oppose the Donald seem to beat up on the guy and do not boost the candidate that we support.
The gentleman was and is right.
Thus I took his challenge and explained why I support Sen. Rubio over any other candidate. As it turns out, the gentleman is a Rubio supporter as well.
But his point was spot on.
One of the aspects of Trump supporters is the fact that they are always on defense because of the many wild things the Donald says. In their zeal, they are mocking and demeaning those that oppose their candidate. And we who oppose the Donald end up feeding this and forget we support some other candidate.
If someone that criticises the Donald does not support another candidate at this point in time, then it is nothing but dumping on Trump and I don't support that.
A candidate like the Donald comes around once a generation. Yes, he is tapping into a certain group of people. Not all are a bunch of racists and or bigots. Not all think the United States is in such a state that we need to Make America Great Again. What does animate many is the fact that the promises that the GOP leadership has made over the last five years have fallen far short. That the leadership has ridden the Tea Party and their agenda only to not support it when it counts. Sure, we're not able to win every battle but at least we put the Dear Leader, President Obama, and the Democrats on the record on any given issue. At least most could say that the leadership tried. Maybe there will even be a stronger negotiating point as well. What the Donald does is sound like a Tea Party candidate because he says the GOP establishment sucks. Yet on many an issue, he is not a Tea Party candidate in the least.
That is why I oppose the Doanld's candidacy.
But why I support Sen. Rubio is because of the fact he actually took on the GOP establishment and won. Many seem to forget that. All that some can remember is that Sen. Rubio tried to cut a deal on illegal immigration. Something that I oppose and think that the junior senator from Florida realizes was a huge mistake. I remember that Sen. Rubio took on now Democrat Charlie Crist and defeated him handily in a GOP primary. Had Mr. Crist won that race and the subsequent election in 2010, that would have been a sure vote for so-called comprehensive immigration "reform". As it turned out Crist was such a loyal Republican, he became an Obama Democrat and a loser in running for his old job in 2014.
Sen. Rubio has a solid conservative record in the senate (American Conservative Union lifetime rating 96% as of 2014. A Conservative review lifetime rating of 80%. Both well north of 50%.). And before people scream that he has missed senate votes, his record on that is quite a lot less than that of the last two senators to run for the presidency, Secretary of State John F. Kerry and the Dear Leader, President Obama.
When righteously criticizing the Donald, we must make the case for our candidate as well and that needs to be at all times. Just writing the latest wild comment and dumping on it shows us to be tearing down and being not much better than what we say about the supporters of the Donald.
It's not just about what we are against but what are we for.

Is Donald Trump A Fascist? What Does Trump Believe?

The short answer is no, the Donald is NOT a fascist the way one would understand it.
The long answer is that the Donald really has no clue as to what he believes and says and promotes whatever comes to his mind with little if any thought.
If one looks at this link at Wikipedia, the one thing that the Donald seems firm on is nationalism. Otherwise, I do not see a candidate fitting the fascist label.
The Donald is more like that relative that says what he or she thinks and doesn't really care how or what comes out.
If one really does back to his speech announcing his quest for the GOP nomination, it was all off the cuff. No notes. Hence his comments about Mexico sending all their criminals here to the United States. And it has gone downhill from there.
Here is what really gets my goat.
Many of the Trumpettes love to compare the Donald to the Great Man himself, Ronald Reagan.
There is absolutely no comparison, period.
OK, take it back.
The only comparison is that both did take it to the GOP establishment.
But here is the difference.
Ronald Reagan was an actual thinker, despite what the left says about him. It is known that Mr. Reagan read extensively, talked to many people and came to the conservative idea over a period of time. Mr. Reagan got into elective politics almost by accident. Everyone today knows that Mr. Reagan gave a last-ditch awesome speech for the 1964 GOP presidential nominee, Sen. Barry M. Goldwater (R-Ariz). It is known simply as The Speech. Two years later, a group of conservative businessmen talked the retired actor into running for governor of California. And the rest is history.
But there is an in between history that a lot of people do not know about.
After losing the 1976 GOP presidential nomination to the incumbent president, Gerald R. Ford, Mr. Reagan became a radio commentator and as archives now public show, Mr. Reagan did his own research and wrote out the five-minute commentaries that kept him in the public eye.
My question is what does the Donald actually believe? Whatever seems to be attractive to his core supporters.
And the supporters are not bad people, despite my usage of the phrase Trumpette. Most are people that are frustrated with politics in general and the GOP establishment in particular. Many feel that GOP congressional leadership has acted impotently regarding the Dear Leader, President Obama. I agree with that. But I listen very carefully to the Donald and do not see how he would have any relationship with congress be it a Democrat or Republican one.
The bottom line to me about Donald Trump is that whatever he believes, and it is not fascism, it is certainly not conservative. And that disqualifies him to me.

The Donald Begging For Cash?! Say It Ain't So!

According to this piece in Politico, I am afraid I have some bad news for the Trumpettes as this is a serious undermining of one of the themes of the Donald J. Trump presidential candidacy.
Now the article does say straight up in the second paragraph that Team Donald started to "build relationships" but that in doing that with gambling mogul, Sheldon Adelson, Team Donald, no the Donald himself, was pretty much asking for money for a possible (at the time) presidential run. The Donald personally made a call to set up a meeting with Mr. Adelson. After all but begging, Mr. Adelson has declined to support the Donald, who pointed out that he lives in heavily-Jewish populated New York and that one of his daughters' married a Jew, and is leaning to Florida Republican senator, Marco Rubio.
Needless to say, the Donald is now beating up on Mr. Adelson.
Coninkidink?!
I don't think so.
Then there is the case of Paul Singer, another big money dude like the Donald. The story is similar and the result is that when Mr. Singer announced that he will support Sen. Rubio, the attack Donald came out.
And let us not forget that there was a Super PAC that was supporting the Donald and that the Donald actually went to a fund-raiser before heat was put on the campaign about that issue. Now Team Donald, led by the chief attack dog himself, is disavowing that Super PAC and discouraging any more attempts to form any Super PAC in the name of the Donald.
Then there is the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll Koch brothers, noted libertarians but supporters of small government Republicans.
There was a big Koch donor confab here is California recently that included five GOP presidential candidates. The aforementioned Sen. Rubio, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (before he dropped out of the race), former Florida governor, Jeb! Bush, Sen, Ted Cruz, and former Hewlett-Packard executive, Carly Fiorina. Some one was not invited. Guess who?!
If you said Donald J. Trump, you would be correct.
And of course his inner attack dog came out on Twitter:

(Koch) is looking for a new puppet after Governor Walker and Jeb Bush cratered. He now likes Marco Rubio - next fail. 

Interesting.
After the Donald tries to illicit support, either by name and or money, and does not get it, he unloads on them.
It is possible that the Donald did all of this to say to his Trumpette supporters, see, I really can not be bought!
But why try in the first place?
I am of the nature to believe that in the end, the Donald is no different from any other politician. And make no mistake, he is in the game so at least for a season he is a politician. And politicians seek support from seemingly like minded people.
I can tell you why the Koch brothers would not support the Donald. Because he is too dependent on the government. He is a rent-seeker. He loves him his eminent domain. He sees no problem with asking the politicians for special favors when it suits his purposes. That's not the Koch brothers' agenda.
This is one big blow to a campaign that claims to seek no money from anyone. That this candidate is so rich that he can't be bought.
But he can beg for support and cash from his fellow billionaires. And so far is a big failure on both.

The Politics Of Mass Murders

It is not very often that you will read it on this blog, but for once Donald J. Trump is right about something.
And surprisingly, the Dear Leader, President Obama, is wrong.
Yesterday another mass murder took place and this time it was at a community college in Southwestern Oregon that took the lives of 10 people and injured another seven. It was an act of madness as is seemingly all of these mass killings have been. They always are.
My friend and fellow blogger, Mr. Social Extinction, juxtaposed the reaction of the current GOP front-runner for president, the Donald, and that of the Dear Leader, President Obama.
It appears that, of course, the Donald is cold and almost callous when you just read what is below:

"You're going to have these things happen and it's a horrible thing to behold, horrible. It's not politically correct to say that, but you're going to have that will be for the next million years, there's going to be difficulty and people are going to slip through the cracks. what are you going to do, institutionalize everybody?"

Good question since in almost all cases there is some kind of mental issue involved. And we will not completely know because this gunman, Chris Harper Mercer, was killed by police that arrived on the scene of the carnage. Of course there are many accounts on Mr. Mercer's life, but one thing is clear that there was some kind of issue. Mr. Mercer graduated from the Switzer Learning Center in 2010. It is a high school that specializes in youths with learning disabilities. It is a broad term, learning disabilities. But more will come out, that is certain. And to note, Mr. Mercer had multiple weapons that, at this writing, he passed all the background checks and appeared to purchase legally.
Which leads to the Dear Leader, President Obama.
We know that he is pissed off because the gloves came off in a news conference yesterday.
An aside.
Why do we have to hear from any president on such a situation before everything is known? Whoever the next president is, I sure as hell do not want hear that president go on the air to pontificate without ascertaining all the facts. Period.
Now back to the Dear Leader, President Obama.
Why now, instead of just offering prayers and condolences, the Dear Leader, President Obama, said that we should just out and out politicize these events until there is "sensible" gun control laws.
Of course.
And now the Dear Leader, President Obama, claims that there is something "routine" about these reports. No, in fact these are still isolated incidents. That is why it is still big news.
But then the Dear Leader, President Obama, outright lied when he claimed that states and or localities that have strict gun laws have less violent crime. May I remind the president that his hometown of Chicago has some of the strictest gun restrictions and the highest murder, murder, rate at the hands of guns than many states with such laws as open-carry. And let me throw in a few cities like Baltimore, Detroit, and now even Los Angeles that the murder rate at the hands of a gun are up drastically.
So here is what our Dear Leader, President Obama, had to say about this matter:

"Somehow this has become routine. The reporting is routine, my response here at this podium ends up being routine. And what becomes routine is the response those who oppose any sort of gun control legislation."

Let me remind the readers here that the Dear Leader, President Obama, and the Democrats controlled the legislative (congress) and executive branches for the first two years of his presidency. And the senate was a veto-proof one at that. Hell, he could have done what he cited yesterday, the massive gun confiscation done in Australia after a mass shooting in 1996. And it was done under a conservative government there. Of course it would have been ruled unconstitutional under that pesky second amendment to the United States constitution. It reads in it's entirety:

A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,  the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed. 

I highlight people because it means law abiding citizens that could be called up in the case of war and or insurrection.
The American left hates this and intentionally blurs the plain meaning every chance that it gets. And here it is once again.
While the Donald often makes little if any sense and has a sketchy record on gun control, his statement made perfect sense. All the laws other than outright confiscation of all firearms might have stopped this. But reality is that it probably would not have done a thing.
Thus, mass murders will constantly be a source of great division for many Americans. But it would behoove Americans to have a sane, tempered approach rather than a knee-jerk We can solve the problem if only.

NR's Rich Lowry Drops A Bomb On The Donald

It's been a while since I wrote anything about Donald J. Trump, so why not write about this bomb dropped by National Review's editor-in-chief, Rich Lowry? 
Don't you love it?! I do. It may be a bit too "adult" in language, but it has the Donald in a tizzy.
And it is worth watching!

Now I believe that the Donald is threatened by strong women and thinks that he can bully them the way that he does pretty much to those who are under him.
Thus this is the line Mr. Lowry said that is a truth bomb:

"He knows that he insulted and bullied his way to the top of the polls. No one was able to best him ever, except for this tough lady on that stage. And it must kill him. He must be simmering about it to this night."

The highlighted area is what counts. That the Donald was able to vanquish Rick Perry and Scott Walker into dropping out of the race. But he was left praising the appearance of one Carly Fiorina rather than doing his usual shtick.
Needless to say, the Donald took to Twitter:

.@FoxNews owes me an apology for allowing clueless pundit @RichLowry to use such foul language on tv. Unheard of! 

Incompetent @RichLowry lost it tonight @FoxNews. He should not be allowed on TV and the FCC should fine him. 

Good Lord!
Really, you want to censor someone because he spoke the truth? You were punked and by a gal at that! Mr Lowry told it in the bluntest but truthful of ways.
I just want to see the Donald actually talk issues and not get into these childish, schoolyard games.
But until then I like to see a bomb dropped every now and then.

Is The Donald's Mouth Going To Finally Run Him Out Of The Presidential Race?

Good Lord in heaven, these posts about Donald J. Trump pretty much write themselves.

But in the Donald's latest salvo, check that salvos, against fellow GOP candidates is it finally too much for most people?
To the Trumpettes, nope.

To them the Donald is speaking truth. Weird truth to most people, but to the Trumpettes it's truth. 

The Donald took on not one "fellow" Republican presidential candidate but two in the persons of fellow outsiders Dr. Ben Carson and former Hewlitt-Packard CEO, Carly Fiorina. 

In an article from the Rolling Stone magazine, the Donald, as is his wont, did not take on Mrs. Fiorina on substantive policy issues but, I can't believe that I am writing this, her face. Directly from the Rolling Stone article on the Donald:

Trump's expression sours in schoolboy disgust as the camera bores in on Fiorina. "Look at that face!" he cries. "Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of the next president?!" The laughter grows halting and faint behind him. "I mean, she's a woman and I'm not s'posdta say bad things, but really, folks, come on. Are we serious?"

So let me say that yes, I sure would vote for Mrs. Fiorina for president. And not based on her face for crying out loud but because I think she is strong without being annoying. She has expressed conservative thinking clearly. 

But the Donald, he was not done by a long shot. 

Dr. Ben Carson was asked a question about the Donald's faith and he answered this way:

"By humility and a fear of the Lord are riches and honor and life. And that's a very big part of who I am, humility and fear of the Lord. I don't get that impression with him (Trump). Maybe I'm wrong but I don't get that impression. Probably the biggest thing is that I realized where my success has come from. And I don't in any way deny my faith in God. And I think that is a big difference here. 

So, Dr. Carson in his understated way somewhat finally said something critical of the current GOP front runner. 

I think you know that this will not end well for Dr. Carson.

"But I don't know Dr. Carson, perhaps-you-know-and okay doctor . . .we're not talking great-he was an okay doctor. And now because he is a doctor and hired one nurse, he's going to end up being president of the United States? For him to read the Bible from memory, it looked like he memorized it about two minutes before he went on stage. Look at his faith and your not going to find so much. And you look at his views on abortion and they were horrendous, and that's why I'm leading with all the evangelicals. I'm leading Ben Carson by a lot I'm almost double his numbers."

WOW! Where, oh where do I start to dismantle this pant load of crap from the Donald. 

Let's see, this okay doc was a professor of neurosurgery, oncology, plastic surgery and pediatrics. And the okay doc only specialized in traumatic brain injuries, spinal cord injuries and several other things that I have never heard of. And the highlight of Dr. Carson's career, an okay career, was separating conjoined twins at the back of the head. 

Not too bad for an okay doc who probably hired a nurse. 

As far as Dr. Carson and his faith, he has been a committed Christian for quite a while now. And he at least can cite a biblical verse. The Donald can not cite one. Not even the most well known of all, John 3:16. Unlike the Donald, Dr. Carson is a student of the Holy Bible. 

Yes, Dr. Carson did some things in regard to fetal tissue research that he truly regrets (which means that he, unlike the Donald, asked the Lord for forgiveness of what he came to recognize as a sin). 

And what awesomeness has the Donald done? Use the government to throw people off their property by eminent domain to buttress his real estate fortune. 

Yeah, that was a wee bit sarcastic. But the point is if the Donald is comfortable in his own skin, he does not need to answer any or perceived slight by his opponents. Run on the record. Oops! My bad! The Donald does have a record that he is trying to run away from. 

So I read Ace's view over at Ace of Spades and, remember this is Ace so there is colorful language and imagery, and he pretty much nails the reasons that the Donald may have or is about to peak. Ace reminds us, much to the chagrin of the Trumpettes, that we are not so angry that we would actually elect Donald J. Trump. Maybe, and I do not concur, the Donald can win the GOP nomination, but not the general election. 

Allahpundit over at Hot Air points out that the Fiorina comments will hurt more among women. Like it or not, the Donald has to win some women over among a lot of other groups. If he keeps looking at women as bimbos or ugly, what support he does have among women may begin to break. 

Which leads to this conclusion of your humble blogger. 

While according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls has the Donald at about 30%, how much of that will actually vote for the Donald? I think that is probably a lot softer than anyone realizes. There is a difference with liking the idea of the Donald and the reality that even on his signature issue, illegal immigration, he will be hamstrung by a reluctant congress and an overtaxed federal court system. His overall incoherence on issue after issue will also hurt unless he really starts talking policy. Then he will bore people to be honest. Which is probably why, as the Rolling Stone article says and the former Trump strategist, Roger Stone said, he is not really interested in policy. 

The reality is that yes, the Donald's mouth is going to eventually either run him out of the GOP race or to crushing defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire at the hands of the best ABT-Anyone But Trump-candidate or candidates. And it can't come soon enough. 

Trump Vows Not To Mount Third-Party Run

For once, I will write something positive about Donald J. Trump and the fact that he has signed a pledge that if he is not the Republican presidential nominee, he will support the actual nominee.
One of my biggest problems with the Donald is that for all this time, he either flirted with and or left the door wide open that if he does not win the GOP presidential nod, he would be open to running as a third-party candidate. And before any Trumpette tries to deny such a thing, remember that he did run a half-assed campaign for the Reform party nomination in the 2000 election.
As an aside, imagine that it was he and not eventual Reform party nominee, Pat Buchanan, that caused trouble in Palm Beach county during the infamous 36 days of confusion in which eventually George W. Bush won Florida and the 23 electoral votes and the presidency.
But I digress.
It was not out of the realm of possibility that the Donald would keep that option in his back pocket. And in reality he probably could still do so if the hard core demands it.
But signing a pledge and showing this

for all to see would hurt him substantially with a certain amount of supporters if he chose to still threaten or indeed after someone else wins the GOP nomination, run third-party.
It appears that some of the hard core may have be dealt their first disappointment at the hands of their political messiah. Some feel that the Donald sold out to the eeeeevvvvviiiiilllll GOP establishment and their Snidely Whiplash, Reince Priebus.
But for some real GOP history, after a contentious and bitter campaign between then former California governor Ronald Reagan and incumbent GOP President Gerald Ford, Mr. Reagan backed Mr. Ford as the GOP candidate. No, Mr. Reagan didn't campaign for Mr. Ford, but his endorsement was enough for some of Mr. Reagan's supporters to at least cast their vote for the battered incumbent president.
And that is all I would expect from the Donald.
Some who have lost became good if not better surrogates for the winning candidate than that particular candidate in the last two elections.
In all honesty it is the very least I want to see from the Donald. If he believes that this election is about his slogan, Making America Great Again, and he should not be the GOP candidate, not undermining the actual nominee and encouraging that nominee to indeed Make America Great Again would show me it is not all about the Donald and it is indeed about the United States.
Of course anyone who runs for president has to have a certain amount of stones to do so. The Donald has that and then some.
By signing a pledge not to be a sore loser, Donald Trump may be indeed a serious candidate for the GOP nomination for president.

What The Donald And Benedict Arnold Schwarzenegger Have In Common

The other day I was talking with a friend, one who is taking a serious look at Donald J. Trump and his candidacy, and I pointed out to him what really worried me is that the Donald would turn out to be another Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Lo and behold last night in my looky around the internets, I came across this excellent post by John Fleischman making the same case.
And like myself, Mr. Fleischman regrets having been swept up in Arnoldmania.
It was the recall election in which then Gov. Gray Era Davis ended up being recalled. It was a two-part ballot. No matter how you voted on the question of whether the Gray Era should be recalled or not, you could vote for his replacement. The recall passed and political neophyte Schwarzenegger won. As you can see here, county by county it was a blowout in many. Even Los Angeles county almost went for the recall. But the left-wing precincts of No Cal, especially the Bay Area, opposed the recall. Mr. Schwarzenegger won with 49% of the vote with over 100 candidates. 
The history of how Mr. Schwarzenegger became governor is very important.
Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Schwarzenegger made his announcement on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno. Mr. Schwarzenegger then campaigned like the dickens on a very similar platform that Mr. Trump is running on. The establishment is bad. As Mr. Fleischman points out, Mr. Schwarzenegger had a broom as a prop on the campaign trail and said "We are going to sweep out the special interests!" And another great line was "We are going to take the government back!" Now I would say we can insert laugh track here, but we shall wait for that.
One of the actual serious issues that accelerated the recall election was the Democrats passing a massive hike in the vehicle registration fee. Many motorists had to make the choice of paying the fee and eventually letting their state-mandated auto insurance lapse. Mr. Schwarzenegger ran hard on that issue and used that to constantly drive home the point that taxes in 2003 California were already, to coin a phrase, too damn high.
Upon Mr. Schwarzenegger's triumph, he was able to roll back the vehicle registration fee to pre-hike levels. There was seemingly some willingness to have good will on the part of Democrats who were clearly taken aback by the public's anger.
Gov. Schwarzenegger was trying to reform state unions and state spending in general. But eventually the Democrats reverted to their old tax and spend ways. So the governor's brain trust proposed putting several proposals on a special election ballot. That is all it took for the school teacher unions to ramp up a campaign against any reform measures, especially regarding union dues. Because the Democrats controlled the state legislature, there was no chance to steer the reforms through the legislative process. Good thinking outside of the box, right? Well by the time Team Arnold could muster up enough signatures to put his proposals on the ballot and fight back, the public's mind was already made up. Thus, as you can see here, propositions 74, 75, 76, and 77 went down to ignoble defeat. 
From the day after those election results until the day he left office, Arnold Schwarzenegger became Benedict Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Why he was so whipped, much of his team quit and he appointed a Democrat to be his chief of staff.
Remember the special interests? They are essentially running the state of California into the ground. Remember the government he wanted to take back? It is worse now than it was then. To prove how whipped Gov. Benedict Arnold was, before he left office, he agreed to . . .hike the vehicle registration fee. The very issue that he ran against, he caved.
As Mr. Fleischman points out, he is a conservative and he was buying the bull from Benedict Arnold. It sounded so good. There were no details, but one just felt Arnold could run the government like a super hero he often portrayed in the movies. We conservatives did have a choice in congressman Tom McClintock. Mr. McClintock did pull about 13% of the vote. But too many of us believed in Arnold. That he could do whatever he wanted and would follow through.
But it ended up that we were fooled. The recall made us feel good in getting rid of rubbish. But what did we replace the Gray Era with? As it turned out, more garbage.
Many of the Trumpettes will not want to hear this. They are, as I am, so desperate for someone to show some real leadership, they do not care to know more than the Donald is saying what many conservatives are thinking. The Republican-led congress is all but impotent. They are not following through on any of the issues that conservatives care about. Like voting to repeal Obamacare. Of course I don't expect the Dear Leader, President Obama, to sign the bill. Or pursuing tax cuts. Showing that they will not be bullied by the president and his Democrat allies.
Some of the GOP presidential candidates are not exactly sounding that they want to pursue a serious conservative agenda. Jeb! Bush comes to mind. But Ohio governor, John Kasich, also seems to be twisting about enacting a conservative agenda.
But the problem is while the Donald is berating these impotent "leaders", he is not offering any serious proposals. And if you really think that the border wall will be built, may I sell you a bridge in Saudi Arabia? If you think that 11,000,000 illegal aliens are going to be deported, sorry it won"t happen. And if any Trumpette is paying attention, the vast majority of those deported will be able to go through an expedited process to RETURN to the United States. It's a half-assed amnesty, worse than the so-called "comprehensive immigration reform"/.
I saw the same thing happen under worse circumstances in 2003. So did a conservative activist named John Fleischman. The ending really sucked. And if, God forbid, it should somehow end the same way, God help the United States of America.