Mitt Romney has taken the Illinois Republican primary this evening and making it much harder for Rick Santorum to stay in the race for the GOP nomination.
With 94% of the vote counted, Mr. Romney has 47% of the vote compared to Mr. Santorum at about 35%. Ron Paul is ahead of the former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich with about nine percent to Mr. Gingrich's eight percent.
Some quick hits on the result.
First, while this seems to help Mr. Romney, once again he is winning without breaking 50% of the vote. But he is now consistently in the high 40s. Meaning voters are beginning to see the writing on the wall. That Mitt Romney will have enough delegates to win the Republican nomination in Tampa in August outright.
Second, so long as he is not ugly, there is no reason for Mr. Santorum to throw in the towel. He will win some more states. This Saturday Louisiana has it's primary and Mr. Santorum should win that one with possibly the same number Mr. Romney had in Illinois tonight.
Third, the one-time rationale of Mr. Gingrich staying in the race is now gone. Although it will be too late no matter what now, the honorable thing Mr. Gingrich could do is leave and support Mr. Santorum. But one thing about Mr. Gingrich is that he is one serious narcissist and that is why he will not leave this race with any shred of honor.
Fourth, Ron Paul is not any kind of factor except to keep his ideas out there. But now that the leftywhore media sees him going nowhere and is pulling their reporters from his campaign, it gets harder for him to get those ideas out there. Mr. Paul is not even getting double-digits in votes and is battling with Mr. Gingrich for the bottom of the barrel.
Clarity is now the way this race is heading.
But there are signs both Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum need to pay attention to.
As this map shows, the urban/suburban and rural divide is very clear here. Mr. Romney took Crook, er Cook county, home of Chicago and the surrounding counties. Mr. Romney also took Sangamon county, home of the state capital Springfield and Peoria county, home of the iconic city of Peoria. Mr. Santorum took everywhere else. And everywhere else while impressive on the map color-wise makes no difference when the other guy is taking the big prizes.
But it continues to hold out the open sore of the more conservative parts of any given state going with Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney taking the less conservative areas. It continues to paint Mr. Santorum in a corner that he will more than likely not get out of. And it just gets more difficult for Mr. Santorum to have the kind of wins that he had several weeks ago on a Tuesday when he won Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota.
But again, Mr. Santorum does not need to leave. He has issues he wants out there. And while sometimes he is not the most articulate, he is bringing the issues in the race. And they are not just social issues. It is how the current economic decline has hurt Blue-collar America.
And it could help make Mr. Santorum a serious candidate for vice-president.
Laugh all you want folks.
But who thought Mr. Santorum would be the last opponent standing against Mr. Romney? And again, his ability to connect with the Blue-collar voter that Mr. Romney will desperately need in November could bring his star rising to Team Romney.
And speaking of Mr. Romney, I think that this encounter with a young freeloader yesterday may have breathed amazing life to him and his campaign. See the linked video because reading the words do not it the same justice. But I will show the freeloader and Mr. Romney's retort:
Freeloader:
“You‘re all for like ’yay freedom and all this stuff and yay pursuit of happiness,’” the student said. “You know what would make me happy? Free birth control.”
Mr. Romney:
“Let me tell you something, if you‘re looking for free stuff that you don’t have to pay for, vote for the other guy. That‘s what he’s all about.”
It will take that and iron steel to go up against Team Obama and all of their surrogates. It will take a couple of adults. And both Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum are the adults in the room.
The Illinois primary makes that clear and it is looking more and more that Mitt Romney is on the way to the top for the GOP. And his running mate may already be there in Rick Santorum.
Showing posts with label Newt Gingrich. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Newt Gingrich. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
WHOA! Rick Takes Two In The South!
Just in case you think that the 2012 Republican presidential Death March, aka primary season, can not get any more convoluted and complex, here comes Rick Santorum to win not just Alabama but also Mississippi and take two deep South states.
Starting in Mississippi, with 99% of the precincts reporting as of this writing, Mr. Santorum leads Newt Gingrich, 33% to 31% with Mitt Romney coming in a solid third with 30%.
In Alabama, also with 99% of the precincts reporting, Mr. Santorum had a stronger win taking 35% of the vote and Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney tied for second each coming in at 29%. But by actual votes, Mr. Gingrich is ahead of Mr. Romney by about 2042 votes.
To cut to the chase, this is what happened tonight.
Mr. Santorum is the only other viable candidate to go up against Mr. Romney.
Mr. Gingrich needs to leave with what little grace he has and if he is serious about wanting a conservative he should immediately endorse Mr. Santorum.
But I do not think the former House speaker will do that.
If he should "suspend" the campaign, he will simply not endorse anyone. He will just let the process play out.
Mr. Romney did better than I would have thought in these two states in the deep South. If he does finish third in both of these races, it will not be because he was blown out.
And if Mr. Romney is the GOP standard-bearer in 2012, these states will vote for him over the Dear Leader, President Obama. This was their chance to say, essentially, we don't particularly have an inclination to vote for Mitt now, but come November, we will crawl over broken glass to do so.
Tonight were two big wins for Rick Santorum. He is now the co-front runner along with Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich needs to go away.
And this will continue.
After all, we have to wait to see who wins the Hawai'i caucus later tonight!
Starting in Mississippi, with 99% of the precincts reporting as of this writing, Mr. Santorum leads Newt Gingrich, 33% to 31% with Mitt Romney coming in a solid third with 30%.
In Alabama, also with 99% of the precincts reporting, Mr. Santorum had a stronger win taking 35% of the vote and Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney tied for second each coming in at 29%. But by actual votes, Mr. Gingrich is ahead of Mr. Romney by about 2042 votes.
To cut to the chase, this is what happened tonight.
Mr. Santorum is the only other viable candidate to go up against Mr. Romney.
Mr. Gingrich needs to leave with what little grace he has and if he is serious about wanting a conservative he should immediately endorse Mr. Santorum.
But I do not think the former House speaker will do that.
If he should "suspend" the campaign, he will simply not endorse anyone. He will just let the process play out.
Mr. Romney did better than I would have thought in these two states in the deep South. If he does finish third in both of these races, it will not be because he was blown out.
And if Mr. Romney is the GOP standard-bearer in 2012, these states will vote for him over the Dear Leader, President Obama. This was their chance to say, essentially, we don't particularly have an inclination to vote for Mitt now, but come November, we will crawl over broken glass to do so.
Tonight were two big wins for Rick Santorum. He is now the co-front runner along with Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich needs to go away.
And this will continue.
After all, we have to wait to see who wins the Hawai'i caucus later tonight!
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Is Kansas A Republican Kingmaker?
Today the Kansas Republican party held their 2012 presidential caucus and the winner, by a mile, was Rick Santorum.
And it was not even close as the results show Mr. Santorum taking a solid majority, 51% of caucus goers to Mitt Romney's 21%. Newt Gingrich and Crazy Uncle Ron Paul fight for the bottom with 14% and 13% respectively.
Now I do not know but Kansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation. And it solidly rejected the so-called front runner, Mr. Romney.
And before you say how few people participated in the caucus, does not matter. A vote is a vote. It is their tough duck if they could not tear themselves away for a couple of hours and participate.
The question is can Kansas make Mr. Santorum even more respectable to Southern voters in Alabama and Mississippi this Tuesday? Will the Kansas vote make or break Santorum or will it even matter?
Here is one thing for certain.
Newt Gingrich is conceding these states. Because he is saying that he will stay in the race no matter what. I do not think that he expects to win either state.
So not it really is a race between Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum.
And today, I think Kansas made that possible.
And it was not even close as the results show Mr. Santorum taking a solid majority, 51% of caucus goers to Mitt Romney's 21%. Newt Gingrich and Crazy Uncle Ron Paul fight for the bottom with 14% and 13% respectively.
Now I do not know but Kansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation. And it solidly rejected the so-called front runner, Mr. Romney.
And before you say how few people participated in the caucus, does not matter. A vote is a vote. It is their tough duck if they could not tear themselves away for a couple of hours and participate.
The question is can Kansas make Mr. Santorum even more respectable to Southern voters in Alabama and Mississippi this Tuesday? Will the Kansas vote make or break Santorum or will it even matter?
Here is one thing for certain.
Newt Gingrich is conceding these states. Because he is saying that he will stay in the race no matter what. I do not think that he expects to win either state.
So not it really is a race between Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum.
And today, I think Kansas made that possible.
Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Romney WIns The Big Prize Of Super Tuesday, Ohio, And Barely
When all is said and done as of this writing, Mitt Romney was the winner of the night of this Super Tuesday, 2012, Republican edition.
While this election tracker does not indicate it, Mr. Romney is the projected winner by Fox News, CNN and the Associated Press.
But, as John Fund points out over at National Review Online, there are a lot of danger signs for Mr. Romney.
I will go back to it. Because here is how it seems to have all shaken out tonight.
For Mitt Romney, he wins the following states:
Idaho, Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont and Ohio.
Rick Santorum has won three states and one is surprising:
North Dakota, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
Newt Gingrich won his home state:
Georgia.
As of this writing, there are no results from the Alaska Republican Caucus.
So, what does this all mean?
For one, Newt Gingrich has no real reason to be in this race now except to be a spoiler. He needed to win somewhere other than Georgia and he did not. And two states, Massachusetts and North Dakota, Mr. Gingrich finished in last place.
Rick Santorum, while not winning the big prize of Ohio made it a total nail-biter in the end. Mr. Romney only won Ohio by one percent or about 12,000 votes. And Mr. Santorum had an upset winning the North Dakota caucus. It may not seem like much, but Mr. Santorum is now the only viable ABR-Anyone But Romney-candidate left standing.
Mitt Romney did what he had to do. He did end up winning Ohio. But it was not pretty and brings us back to Mr. Fund's piece over at NRO.
Although it is short, it points to the obvious.
That Mr. Romney should have had a much easier time winning Ohio.
That losing Oklahoma may not seem like a big loss, but it is a rebuke to the very popular Sen. Tom Coburn who just endorsed Mr. Romney.
And the fact that Mr. Romney is still not all that in the South. He has not won a state outside of Florida in the South and there have already been several primaries.
And he did not win in Georgia, Tennessee or Oklahoma. The pattern is there and plain to see.
And yet it does appear that Mr. Romney will more than likely be the Republican nominee this time around.
It also means that he needs to make a serious choice for second spot on the ticket if he is the nominee.
There is no doubt that Mr. Santorum could be at the front as the clear ABR candidate. I still think he can pull the surprise by asking South Carolina governor Nikki Haley to be number two. And there is already clamoring to put Marco Rubio as the number two.
But first things first.
By winning what he had to do tonight, Mitt Romney should be able to start winning races by larger margins as it looks evident he will be the nominee. Rick Santorum can stay in, but needs to tread carefully if he will be seriously considered for the number two position.
As the old saying goes a win is a win. No matter how ugly it is. And Mitt Romney has won kind of sort of ugly tonight.
While this election tracker does not indicate it, Mr. Romney is the projected winner by Fox News, CNN and the Associated Press.
But, as John Fund points out over at National Review Online, there are a lot of danger signs for Mr. Romney.
I will go back to it. Because here is how it seems to have all shaken out tonight.
For Mitt Romney, he wins the following states:
Idaho, Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont and Ohio.
Rick Santorum has won three states and one is surprising:
North Dakota, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
Newt Gingrich won his home state:
Georgia.
As of this writing, there are no results from the Alaska Republican Caucus.
So, what does this all mean?
For one, Newt Gingrich has no real reason to be in this race now except to be a spoiler. He needed to win somewhere other than Georgia and he did not. And two states, Massachusetts and North Dakota, Mr. Gingrich finished in last place.
Rick Santorum, while not winning the big prize of Ohio made it a total nail-biter in the end. Mr. Romney only won Ohio by one percent or about 12,000 votes. And Mr. Santorum had an upset winning the North Dakota caucus. It may not seem like much, but Mr. Santorum is now the only viable ABR-Anyone But Romney-candidate left standing.
Mitt Romney did what he had to do. He did end up winning Ohio. But it was not pretty and brings us back to Mr. Fund's piece over at NRO.
Although it is short, it points to the obvious.
That Mr. Romney should have had a much easier time winning Ohio.
That losing Oklahoma may not seem like a big loss, but it is a rebuke to the very popular Sen. Tom Coburn who just endorsed Mr. Romney.
And the fact that Mr. Romney is still not all that in the South. He has not won a state outside of Florida in the South and there have already been several primaries.
And he did not win in Georgia, Tennessee or Oklahoma. The pattern is there and plain to see.
And yet it does appear that Mr. Romney will more than likely be the Republican nominee this time around.
It also means that he needs to make a serious choice for second spot on the ticket if he is the nominee.
There is no doubt that Mr. Santorum could be at the front as the clear ABR candidate. I still think he can pull the surprise by asking South Carolina governor Nikki Haley to be number two. And there is already clamoring to put Marco Rubio as the number two.
But first things first.
By winning what he had to do tonight, Mitt Romney should be able to start winning races by larger margins as it looks evident he will be the nominee. Rick Santorum can stay in, but needs to tread carefully if he will be seriously considered for the number two position.
As the old saying goes a win is a win. No matter how ugly it is. And Mitt Romney has won kind of sort of ugly tonight.
So Who Will The Big Super Tuesday Winner Be For The GOP?
As I write this, voters will go to the polls in 10 states to determine the lion's share of 410 delegates for the Republican presidential nomination.
Today voters in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia will vote as to who they think should be the GOP presidential nominee and who should get the delegates.
So, a scorecard is needed as to who can win, where and why.
Lets start with Mitt Romney and the following states he should win today:
Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia.
Mr. Romney should win Idaho with ease as it in the Mormon trifecta-Nevada and Utah being the other heavily-populated Mormon states. Massachusetts is his current home state. Vermont because he is a New Englander and Virginia by default.
Virginia is by default because two of the three others left in the race, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, failed to qualify for the Virginia ballot. Only Crazy Uncle Ron Paul will be on the ballot with Mr. Romney in the Old Dominion state.
For Rick Santorum, he should win the following states:
Oklahoma and Tennesee.
A win in both states is a huge boost to Mr. Santorum's claim that he is the last viable conservative standing between Mr. Romney and the Republican presidential nomination.
Ron Paul, yes Crazy Uncle Ron, has a chance to win two states because they are caucus states and they are:
Alaska and North Dakota.
Crazy Uncle Ron has a better chance in Alaska than North Dakota. But one can never rule out a win for the libertarian in North Dakota.
Newt Gingrich will only win one state:
Georgia.
It will not be much of a win because it is his home state. A loss there and it is totally over for the former Speaker of the House.
And that leaves one race that I do not have a prediction on.
And that is Ohio as Mr. Santorum's once solid lead has evaporated and Mr. Romney is closing in.
If I had to get out of a room and only could choosing one of the two, I will give the edge to Mr. Santorum. But not one with a great deal of confidence.
And that is because like it or not, Mr. Santorum has been knocked off message and some of it is his own doing.
I like the fact that he is unabashed about being a true so con. But to win Ohio, one must know that it is all about the economy, the economy, the economy.
And yes, I do know that the leftywhore media has amped up the coverage of Mr. Santorum on social issues. But there is no reason to take the bait. Mr. Santorum has to realize that the leftywhore media is going after him on these issues. And he must learn how to force the conversation back to the economy. That is why I think Mr. Romney has gained ground and might, might just pull off the win in Ohio.
But please fellow conservatives and Republicans, it will not end tonight.
Unless Mr. Romney wins six or more states, it will continue to be a race of attrition and no one has to drop out just yet.
So tonight the results will be a mixed bag and a lot for us to chew on in the upcoming days and yes, weeks.
Today voters in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia will vote as to who they think should be the GOP presidential nominee and who should get the delegates.
So, a scorecard is needed as to who can win, where and why.
Lets start with Mitt Romney and the following states he should win today:
Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia.
Mr. Romney should win Idaho with ease as it in the Mormon trifecta-Nevada and Utah being the other heavily-populated Mormon states. Massachusetts is his current home state. Vermont because he is a New Englander and Virginia by default.
Virginia is by default because two of the three others left in the race, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, failed to qualify for the Virginia ballot. Only Crazy Uncle Ron Paul will be on the ballot with Mr. Romney in the Old Dominion state.
For Rick Santorum, he should win the following states:
Oklahoma and Tennesee.
A win in both states is a huge boost to Mr. Santorum's claim that he is the last viable conservative standing between Mr. Romney and the Republican presidential nomination.
Ron Paul, yes Crazy Uncle Ron, has a chance to win two states because they are caucus states and they are:
Alaska and North Dakota.
Crazy Uncle Ron has a better chance in Alaska than North Dakota. But one can never rule out a win for the libertarian in North Dakota.
Newt Gingrich will only win one state:
Georgia.
It will not be much of a win because it is his home state. A loss there and it is totally over for the former Speaker of the House.
And that leaves one race that I do not have a prediction on.
And that is Ohio as Mr. Santorum's once solid lead has evaporated and Mr. Romney is closing in.
If I had to get out of a room and only could choosing one of the two, I will give the edge to Mr. Santorum. But not one with a great deal of confidence.
And that is because like it or not, Mr. Santorum has been knocked off message and some of it is his own doing.
I like the fact that he is unabashed about being a true so con. But to win Ohio, one must know that it is all about the economy, the economy, the economy.
And yes, I do know that the leftywhore media has amped up the coverage of Mr. Santorum on social issues. But there is no reason to take the bait. Mr. Santorum has to realize that the leftywhore media is going after him on these issues. And he must learn how to force the conversation back to the economy. That is why I think Mr. Romney has gained ground and might, might just pull off the win in Ohio.
But please fellow conservatives and Republicans, it will not end tonight.
Unless Mr. Romney wins six or more states, it will continue to be a race of attrition and no one has to drop out just yet.
So tonight the results will be a mixed bag and a lot for us to chew on in the upcoming days and yes, weeks.
Saturday, February 04, 2012
And Newt Is The ONLY Conservative "Alternative" To Romney?
Of course not!
But damn that media narrative.
Hell, even Fox News Channel, as The Other McCain pointed out in this epic rant, National Review, The American Spectator and The Weekly Standard have pretty much played the narrative that the race is a two-man one.
Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
Too bad that Rick Santorum guy keeps popping up everywhere.
And I guess the fact that Mr. Santorum in this tracking poll is ahead of the Dear Leader, President Obama, ahh nothing to see here. Pay no attention. For it is only Mitt and Newt.
Don't you believe it!
Mr. Santorum needs to keep doing what he is doing.
As these Republican primaries and caucuses keep going, Mr. Santorum needs to keep in and win somewhere.
One place that he may do well and win is Ohio.
That is a large state. A swing state. And one that seems to lean Republican at this point in time. And being from the Western Pennsylvania area, the Eastern border of Ohio, will not hurt either. And he can communicate his message to people that might not think Republican in better terms that either Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Romney.
So, today the people of Nevada get to put there wooden nickels in the Republican caucus being held later today. Mitt Romney should easily win, but if Mr. Santorum can finish a decent second, he may just be on the road to slaying the dragon known as Newt Gingrich.
Then it will be a real two man race between Mitt and Rick.
Remember, there is another conservative who can actually win and that is Rick Santorum. Because Newt Gingrich can not.
But damn that media narrative.
Hell, even Fox News Channel, as The Other McCain pointed out in this epic rant, National Review, The American Spectator and The Weekly Standard have pretty much played the narrative that the race is a two-man one.
Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
Too bad that Rick Santorum guy keeps popping up everywhere.
And I guess the fact that Mr. Santorum in this tracking poll is ahead of the Dear Leader, President Obama, ahh nothing to see here. Pay no attention. For it is only Mitt and Newt.
Don't you believe it!
Mr. Santorum needs to keep doing what he is doing.
As these Republican primaries and caucuses keep going, Mr. Santorum needs to keep in and win somewhere.
One place that he may do well and win is Ohio.
That is a large state. A swing state. And one that seems to lean Republican at this point in time. And being from the Western Pennsylvania area, the Eastern border of Ohio, will not hurt either. And he can communicate his message to people that might not think Republican in better terms that either Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Romney.
So, today the people of Nevada get to put there wooden nickels in the Republican caucus being held later today. Mitt Romney should easily win, but if Mr. Santorum can finish a decent second, he may just be on the road to slaying the dragon known as Newt Gingrich.
Then it will be a real two man race between Mitt and Rick.
Remember, there is another conservative who can actually win and that is Rick Santorum. Because Newt Gingrich can not.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Remember How Newt Supported Doug Hoffman In The New York State 23rd Congressional Race In 2009?
No, I bet you don't.
Neither do I.
OOPS! My bad!
I plum forgot that the former Republican Speaker of the House backed not the Tea Party choice for the infamous New York state 23rd congressional race in 2009.
No, Newt Gingrich, the stalwart conservative let the whims of a few Republican county party chairs sway who to support.
So, it is important to give a brief as possible history lesson on the race in question.
In 2009, the Dear Leader, President Obama, appointed John McHugh, a New York state Republican congressman to become Navy Secretary.
So, a special election was called by then-Gov. David Patterson.
In New York state, unlike California, the Republican party depends on the county chairs to essentially appoint a candidate. In California, a first-round of voting occurs and if no one gets 50% plus one, then the top two go to the second round, the general election.
The county chairs chose a little-known state assemblyman, Dede Scozzafava to be the choice the maintain the seat. Mrs. Scozzafava was and is a liberal Republican. Think of our former-thank God-governor, Benedict Arnold Schwarzenegger.
In New York state, there are two small parties, the Conservative and the Liberal party.
Enter Doug Hoffman.
Mr. Hoffman supposedly "lost" to Mrs. Scozzafava among the 11 county chairs in the 23rd congressional district.
So, Mr. Hoffman ran an insurgent campaign on the Conservative party line.
This created huge problems for the Republican party everywhere. Especially in Washington, D. C.
You know who supported Mrs. Scozzafava?
Why none other than the current flavor-of-the-week conservative, Newton LeRoy Gingrich.
In fact, your humble blogger noticed that Mr. Gingrich had some undying loyalty to Mrs. Scozzafava. And he was one of the last Republicans to unendorse Mrs. Scozzafava.
And it was not just some conservative on the Left coast noticing this may have not been the wisest choice Mr. Gingrich made.
The Hill newspaper noticed that Mr. Gingrich stepped in it, big time here.
If you think that Mrs. Scozzafava was some moderate, consider that she supported the union-backed "card-check" legislation. Was more than just "pro-choice" on abortion. And she supported the so-called "stimulus" legislation in 2009.
Somehow, Mr. Gingrich thought that this was a principled conservative:
“Our best chance to put responsible and principled leaders in Washington starts here, with Dede Scozzafava.”
Sure, Newt. Sure was.
Oh, for the record, Mrs. Scozzafava dropped out of the race. Endorsed the Democrat and current congressman, Bill Owens. And now has a cushy state job she was appointed to by the. . .wait for it. . .Democrat governor, Andres Cuomo.
But remember, all of you who are saying Newt Gingrich is a true conservative fighter. When he had the chance to get on the right side of the Tea Party, he went right back to his Rockefeller Republican roots.
It is ironic that today, on the Gingrich for President website, he has to admit that it was a mistake to support Mrs. Scozzafava. Here is from the website:
Whether it was helping to build the Republican Party of Georgia back when Democrats controlled the entire state or leading the nationwide effort in 1994 to break 40 years of Democratic rule in the House, Newt has always tried to advance the cause of a truly conservative Republican party. This has always meant supporting the most conservative nominee possible as selected by Republican primary voters.
Therefore, Newt will almost always back the nominee of the Republican party and not back an independent candidate in a race against a Democratic candidate.
Newt still believes in this principle, however, he has admitted it was a mistake to back Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee in the 2009 NY-23 special election. Although she was the Republican nominee, the problem was that Republican primary voters did not pick her, the local party leaders did, otherwise her liberal views would have prevented her from becoming the nominee.
I highlight the most important part because it was the process that was wrong. As a so-called reformer, he should have been demanding that the secretive process be opened to party rank-and-file voters, not corrupt county party chairs greasing the wheels for one of their own.
Newt was wrong then and while he admits that mistake, it cost the Republican party a congressional seat and dealt the Tea Party movement an unnecessary setback.
Leadership means sometimes throwing out the playbook. On this Mr. Gingrich did not and I think there are a whole lot of other issues that he has been on the wrong side of.
This is a glaring one.
Neither do I.
OOPS! My bad!
I plum forgot that the former Republican Speaker of the House backed not the Tea Party choice for the infamous New York state 23rd congressional race in 2009.
No, Newt Gingrich, the stalwart conservative let the whims of a few Republican county party chairs sway who to support.
So, it is important to give a brief as possible history lesson on the race in question.
In 2009, the Dear Leader, President Obama, appointed John McHugh, a New York state Republican congressman to become Navy Secretary.
So, a special election was called by then-Gov. David Patterson.
In New York state, unlike California, the Republican party depends on the county chairs to essentially appoint a candidate. In California, a first-round of voting occurs and if no one gets 50% plus one, then the top two go to the second round, the general election.
The county chairs chose a little-known state assemblyman, Dede Scozzafava to be the choice the maintain the seat. Mrs. Scozzafava was and is a liberal Republican. Think of our former-thank God-governor, Benedict Arnold Schwarzenegger.
In New York state, there are two small parties, the Conservative and the Liberal party.
Enter Doug Hoffman.
Mr. Hoffman supposedly "lost" to Mrs. Scozzafava among the 11 county chairs in the 23rd congressional district.
So, Mr. Hoffman ran an insurgent campaign on the Conservative party line.
This created huge problems for the Republican party everywhere. Especially in Washington, D. C.
You know who supported Mrs. Scozzafava?
Why none other than the current flavor-of-the-week conservative, Newton LeRoy Gingrich.
In fact, your humble blogger noticed that Mr. Gingrich had some undying loyalty to Mrs. Scozzafava. And he was one of the last Republicans to unendorse Mrs. Scozzafava.
And it was not just some conservative on the Left coast noticing this may have not been the wisest choice Mr. Gingrich made.
The Hill newspaper noticed that Mr. Gingrich stepped in it, big time here.
If you think that Mrs. Scozzafava was some moderate, consider that she supported the union-backed "card-check" legislation. Was more than just "pro-choice" on abortion. And she supported the so-called "stimulus" legislation in 2009.
Somehow, Mr. Gingrich thought that this was a principled conservative:
“Our best chance to put responsible and principled leaders in Washington starts here, with Dede Scozzafava.”
Sure, Newt. Sure was.
Oh, for the record, Mrs. Scozzafava dropped out of the race. Endorsed the Democrat and current congressman, Bill Owens. And now has a cushy state job she was appointed to by the. . .wait for it. . .Democrat governor, Andres Cuomo.
But remember, all of you who are saying Newt Gingrich is a true conservative fighter. When he had the chance to get on the right side of the Tea Party, he went right back to his Rockefeller Republican roots.
It is ironic that today, on the Gingrich for President website, he has to admit that it was a mistake to support Mrs. Scozzafava. Here is from the website:
Whether it was helping to build the Republican Party of Georgia back when Democrats controlled the entire state or leading the nationwide effort in 1994 to break 40 years of Democratic rule in the House, Newt has always tried to advance the cause of a truly conservative Republican party. This has always meant supporting the most conservative nominee possible as selected by Republican primary voters.
Therefore, Newt will almost always back the nominee of the Republican party and not back an independent candidate in a race against a Democratic candidate.
Newt still believes in this principle, however, he has admitted it was a mistake to back Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee in the 2009 NY-23 special election. Although she was the Republican nominee, the problem was that Republican primary voters did not pick her, the local party leaders did, otherwise her liberal views would have prevented her from becoming the nominee.
I highlight the most important part because it was the process that was wrong. As a so-called reformer, he should have been demanding that the secretive process be opened to party rank-and-file voters, not corrupt county party chairs greasing the wheels for one of their own.
Newt was wrong then and while he admits that mistake, it cost the Republican party a congressional seat and dealt the Tea Party movement an unnecessary setback.
Leadership means sometimes throwing out the playbook. On this Mr. Gingrich did not and I think there are a whole lot of other issues that he has been on the wrong side of.
This is a glaring one.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Newt Wins South Carolina
As seemingly expected, former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, has won the Republican primary in South Carolina and rather handily tonight.
With 99% of precincts reporting, Mr. Gingrich had 40% of the vote to Mitt Romney's distant second at 28%. Rick Santorum came in a solid third with 17% and Ron Paul came in last of the four still running at 13%.
It is a solid win for Mr. Gingrich. No doubt about that.
But I wonder how much of it is a "sympathy" vote after the ABC interview with the former Mrs. Gingrich number two, Marianne? And the subsequent dressing down Mr. Gingrich gave to CNN's John King for even bringing it up?
I think that John Pitney, Jr. over at The Corner at National Review sums it up best in this posting. And the list that will now more than ever be spotlighted is given a brief overview:
Expect renewed attention to troublesome aspects of his public record: his past support for a value-added tax, his overdrafts at the House Bank and his other ethics problems, his denunciation of deficit hawks as “the perfectionist caucus,” his past skepticism about the Founders, and many others.
How will Mr. Gingrich handle legitimate questions on those and other issues. The phrase "I should not have said FILL IN THE BLANK." can only be used so much before people get a little annoyed. And those are the supporters. Imagine a whole nation of voters in a general election?
Its time for Mr. Gingrich to celebrate this win because they are going to get harder and much costlier to come by.
And now, on to Florida.
With 99% of precincts reporting, Mr. Gingrich had 40% of the vote to Mitt Romney's distant second at 28%. Rick Santorum came in a solid third with 17% and Ron Paul came in last of the four still running at 13%.
It is a solid win for Mr. Gingrich. No doubt about that.
But I wonder how much of it is a "sympathy" vote after the ABC interview with the former Mrs. Gingrich number two, Marianne? And the subsequent dressing down Mr. Gingrich gave to CNN's John King for even bringing it up?
I think that John Pitney, Jr. over at The Corner at National Review sums it up best in this posting. And the list that will now more than ever be spotlighted is given a brief overview:
Expect renewed attention to troublesome aspects of his public record: his past support for a value-added tax, his overdrafts at the House Bank and his other ethics problems, his denunciation of deficit hawks as “the perfectionist caucus,” his past skepticism about the Founders, and many others.
How will Mr. Gingrich handle legitimate questions on those and other issues. The phrase "I should not have said FILL IN THE BLANK." can only be used so much before people get a little annoyed. And those are the supporters. Imagine a whole nation of voters in a general election?
Its time for Mr. Gingrich to celebrate this win because they are going to get harder and much costlier to come by.
And now, on to Florida.
Why Do Some Conservatives Ignore Gingrich Transgressions Yet Salivated At Clinton Ones?
If there is one thing that this blogger seeks is truth. And sometimes it means that some people that I like and respect need to answer an obvious question.
The question in this case is simple.
Why are some conservatives ignoring or dismissive of numerous personal and policy transgressions on the part of Newt Gingrich? Yet when one William Jefferson Blythe Clinton was president, same said conservatives were salivating at every one of Mr. Clinton's transgressions?
A point here is I sure was one that saw Mr. Clinton as a threat to the Republic. Politically, of course.
It was well known that the lug was a womanizer with the best of them. Many of the same people said that automatically disqualified him to become president in 1992.
While a lot happened in the Clinton era, the dreaded impeachment of the president in a strange sense was a turning point.
I still believe that it was correct to impeach the president because he lied in a deposition on a civil matter. While president of the United States. If he will easily lie about a matter that he should have settled, what would he really lie about?
Ahh, but the Leftywhore media and the Democrat party made it an issue about sex and the president's private life. Most conservatives would have none of that. Remember when we mocked Mr. Clinton every Sunday as we saw him either walking into or from church? With Holy Bible tucked under his arm?
Fast forward to 2012.
One of the leaders of the impeachment of Mr. Clinton was Newt Gingrich.
To show how reckless and dangerous Mr. Gingrich was, the media successfully made sex the issue. And yet Mr. Gingrich was cavorting with the current Mrs. Gingrich, Calista. While still married to Mrs. Gingrich number two, Marianne.
And let us not forget that Mrs. Gingrich number two became that in the same manner.
Now, one can ask each of these women why they would have thought Mr. Gingrich would be any different with them.
But that is for the head-shrinkers.
For me, to listen to conservatives today, you would have think we are in another world.
When a Democrat is full of transgressions, we rail against them.
When a Republican is full of transgressions, we suddenly sound like, well Democrats.
Ah, its his personal life. That happened years ago. He realizes that he was bad and has sought forgiveness.
Yet in 1998, that was not enough for most of us.
Keep in mind, once the Leftywhore media changed the narrative, it was harder and harder to keep the basis of impeachment front and center.
It was not about an affair but alleged sexual harassment. And the president lied about it. And lied when a pattern of reckless behavior became evident. Again, that was what it was all about.
Again, I get why many like the fighter Newt Gingrich.
But he can not be the Republican standard-bearer in 2012.
The affairs are just one reason.
The policy transgressions, the attacks on people for making money, the seemingly lack of discipline, that along with past faults make Mr. Gingrich be suspect in the long haul.
But we cannot have a double standard.
Bill Clinton was and is bad.
Newt Gingrich was bad, but he is our guy so he is cool.
I want to win this election, but I am with Rick Santorum.
Here is what he said in the CNN GOP debate this past Thursday:
I mean, Newt's -- Newt's a friend. I love him. But at times, you've just got, you know, sort of that, you know, worrisome moment that something's going to pop. And we can't afford that in a nominee.
We need someone -- I'm not the most flamboyant, and I don't get the biggest applause lines here. But I'm steady. I'm solid. I'm not going to go out and do things that you're going to worry about. I'm going to be out there. I'm going to make Barack Obama the issue in this campaign.
Think about that fellow conservatives.
Mr. Santorum is right.
Most important, we need to admit that we have set a double standard if Mr. Gingrich is the GOP nominee. And it may be no turning back on that one.
The question in this case is simple.
Why are some conservatives ignoring or dismissive of numerous personal and policy transgressions on the part of Newt Gingrich? Yet when one William Jefferson Blythe Clinton was president, same said conservatives were salivating at every one of Mr. Clinton's transgressions?
A point here is I sure was one that saw Mr. Clinton as a threat to the Republic. Politically, of course.
It was well known that the lug was a womanizer with the best of them. Many of the same people said that automatically disqualified him to become president in 1992.
While a lot happened in the Clinton era, the dreaded impeachment of the president in a strange sense was a turning point.
I still believe that it was correct to impeach the president because he lied in a deposition on a civil matter. While president of the United States. If he will easily lie about a matter that he should have settled, what would he really lie about?
Ahh, but the Leftywhore media and the Democrat party made it an issue about sex and the president's private life. Most conservatives would have none of that. Remember when we mocked Mr. Clinton every Sunday as we saw him either walking into or from church? With Holy Bible tucked under his arm?
Fast forward to 2012.
One of the leaders of the impeachment of Mr. Clinton was Newt Gingrich.
To show how reckless and dangerous Mr. Gingrich was, the media successfully made sex the issue. And yet Mr. Gingrich was cavorting with the current Mrs. Gingrich, Calista. While still married to Mrs. Gingrich number two, Marianne.
And let us not forget that Mrs. Gingrich number two became that in the same manner.
Now, one can ask each of these women why they would have thought Mr. Gingrich would be any different with them.
But that is for the head-shrinkers.
For me, to listen to conservatives today, you would have think we are in another world.
When a Democrat is full of transgressions, we rail against them.
When a Republican is full of transgressions, we suddenly sound like, well Democrats.
Ah, its his personal life. That happened years ago. He realizes that he was bad and has sought forgiveness.
Yet in 1998, that was not enough for most of us.
Keep in mind, once the Leftywhore media changed the narrative, it was harder and harder to keep the basis of impeachment front and center.
It was not about an affair but alleged sexual harassment. And the president lied about it. And lied when a pattern of reckless behavior became evident. Again, that was what it was all about.
Again, I get why many like the fighter Newt Gingrich.
But he can not be the Republican standard-bearer in 2012.
The affairs are just one reason.
The policy transgressions, the attacks on people for making money, the seemingly lack of discipline, that along with past faults make Mr. Gingrich be suspect in the long haul.
But we cannot have a double standard.
Bill Clinton was and is bad.
Newt Gingrich was bad, but he is our guy so he is cool.
I want to win this election, but I am with Rick Santorum.
Here is what he said in the CNN GOP debate this past Thursday:
I mean, Newt's -- Newt's a friend. I love him. But at times, you've just got, you know, sort of that, you know, worrisome moment that something's going to pop. And we can't afford that in a nominee.
We need someone -- I'm not the most flamboyant, and I don't get the biggest applause lines here. But I'm steady. I'm solid. I'm not going to go out and do things that you're going to worry about. I'm going to be out there. I'm going to make Barack Obama the issue in this campaign.
Think about that fellow conservatives.
Mr. Santorum is right.
Most important, we need to admit that we have set a double standard if Mr. Gingrich is the GOP nominee. And it may be no turning back on that one.
Friday, January 20, 2012
My Prediction For South Carolina
Tomorrow, well actually almost today as I write this, the good voters of South Carolina will go to the polls and decide who they like in the Republican primary for president.
So, of course I will offer my fearless prediction.
It is as follows:
Mitt Romney: 30%
Newt Gingrich: 29%
Rick Santorum: 23%
Ron Paul: 15%
Other: 3%
This does take into account the fact that Newt Gingrich is really surging in So Carolina. And I think that this is not a place for the Ron Paul breakthrough.
If Mr. Gingrich does not win this one, how can he seriously keep it up through the remaining contests? I do not get how a fourth place finish in Iowa, a fifth place finish in New Hampshire and a possible loss in So Carolina and yet Mr. Gingrich can say he will be the nominee.
At some point, Florida becomes the place where either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich becomes the so-called conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.
It will be interesting to see who Gov. Rick Scott in Florida endorses. By all accounts, as a former businessman himself, he tacitly will endorse Mr. Romney. And at some point may formally do so.
Despite a lot of nervous nellies in the Republican party, So Carolina does not end the primary season. It is just warming up. And now it is to see if Mr. Romney will be facing a rejuvenated Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Santorum in future races.
So, of course I will offer my fearless prediction.
It is as follows:
Mitt Romney: 30%
Newt Gingrich: 29%
Rick Santorum: 23%
Ron Paul: 15%
Other: 3%
This does take into account the fact that Newt Gingrich is really surging in So Carolina. And I think that this is not a place for the Ron Paul breakthrough.
If Mr. Gingrich does not win this one, how can he seriously keep it up through the remaining contests? I do not get how a fourth place finish in Iowa, a fifth place finish in New Hampshire and a possible loss in So Carolina and yet Mr. Gingrich can say he will be the nominee.
At some point, Florida becomes the place where either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich becomes the so-called conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.
It will be interesting to see who Gov. Rick Scott in Florida endorses. By all accounts, as a former businessman himself, he tacitly will endorse Mr. Romney. And at some point may formally do so.
Despite a lot of nervous nellies in the Republican party, So Carolina does not end the primary season. It is just warming up. And now it is to see if Mr. Romney will be facing a rejuvenated Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Santorum in future races.
Say, That Newt Gingrich Fellow Kind Of Reminds Me Of Someone Named Nixon
It has been a long thought for me to write this overall assessment of one Newton LeRoy Gingrich. That in fact he is not necessarily the strong conservative that he makes himself out to be.
There was another American president that tried that shtick.
His name.
Richard Milhous Nixon.
Any regular reader of this blog knows that I believe that while he destroyed his own presidency, he almost single-handily destroyed the Republican party as well. Of course we all know that it took one Ronald Reagan to reform and renew the party.
But what Mr. Nixon did was talk a conservative game. Yet it was Mr. Nixon that believed in socialist medicine. Oh, he would argue that it was not, but in the end it would have created the bureaucracy that all of Europe sees.
Mr. Nixon never actually did anything to scale back the so-called Great Society of his predecessor, Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson. In fact, to fight inflation, Mr. Nixon not once but twice imposed wage and price controls.
In other words, Mr. Nixon essentially conceded domestic policy to the other team.
And Mr. Nixon was always a brooding figure. Seemingly not all that much of a happy man. Yet, he always had a fighter's view of politics.
And that is Mr. Gingrich.
A fighter. In last night's CNN Republican debate, Mr. Gingrich got conservatives excited because he slammed CNN's moderator, John King, for bringing up ABC's interview with the former Mrs. Gingrich number two, Marianne.
Well, sorry but this is relevant.
This is Mr. Gingrich's third marriage. And he left his previous two wives while cavorting with the future wife. Wife number three, Calista, was who he wanted to share with wife number two.
Get all of that?
And Mr. Gingrich was carrying on that affair while pushing to impeach then President Bill Clinton.
An aside.
The impeachment was not about sex.
It was about the president of the United States lying under oath in a civil case. And he was caught. The fact that the lie was about a short-term affair is not what is important. What he lied about on that was in regards to a sexual-harassment suit brought against him by Paula Jones.
But knowing that Mr. Gingrich was shtooping Calista at the same time, what did that do the proceedings?
And if that does not bother you, how about this devastating piece in The American Spectator by Quin Hillyer? And Rick Santorum pointed out the grandiosity of Mr. Gingrich that Mr. Hillyer does in the piece. But this is the critical line of the piece:
Gingrich was great at rabble rousing. He was awful at actually managing things
I would alter it this way:
Gingrich is great at rabble rousing. He is awful at actually managing things.
And he has the Nixonian view of any disagreement as being an enemy.
We lived that before and it was a traumatic era in the United States.
This is the most critical election in my life. And to blow it because we like when Mr. Gingrich goes gonzo on the Leftywhore media. Or when he slams Mitt Romney for. . .making money. For once being a strong believer in Globaloney Warming to weaseling worse than anyone on stage. For once backing the individual mandate in national health care and now weaseling on that.
And yet Mitt Romney is called a flip-flopper.
And while it is not something that is good, optics and attitude matter.
A thrice-married, kind of short, a little chubby, white-haired White guy next to the youngish, handsome mixed-race success story with a very nice family. The first mentioned guy pretty mercurial a lot of the time. The latter guy with a smile.
Like it or not, people vote for someone who exudes a positive quality. Look at Mr. Reagan, both Mr. Bush's, Mr. Clinton.
At the end of the day, a vote for Newt Gingrich is a vote for Richard Nixon from the grave. And that is not a good vote for the United States.
There was another American president that tried that shtick.
His name.
Richard Milhous Nixon.
Any regular reader of this blog knows that I believe that while he destroyed his own presidency, he almost single-handily destroyed the Republican party as well. Of course we all know that it took one Ronald Reagan to reform and renew the party.
But what Mr. Nixon did was talk a conservative game. Yet it was Mr. Nixon that believed in socialist medicine. Oh, he would argue that it was not, but in the end it would have created the bureaucracy that all of Europe sees.
Mr. Nixon never actually did anything to scale back the so-called Great Society of his predecessor, Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson. In fact, to fight inflation, Mr. Nixon not once but twice imposed wage and price controls.
In other words, Mr. Nixon essentially conceded domestic policy to the other team.
And Mr. Nixon was always a brooding figure. Seemingly not all that much of a happy man. Yet, he always had a fighter's view of politics.
And that is Mr. Gingrich.
A fighter. In last night's CNN Republican debate, Mr. Gingrich got conservatives excited because he slammed CNN's moderator, John King, for bringing up ABC's interview with the former Mrs. Gingrich number two, Marianne.
Well, sorry but this is relevant.
This is Mr. Gingrich's third marriage. And he left his previous two wives while cavorting with the future wife. Wife number three, Calista, was who he wanted to share with wife number two.
Get all of that?
And Mr. Gingrich was carrying on that affair while pushing to impeach then President Bill Clinton.
An aside.
The impeachment was not about sex.
It was about the president of the United States lying under oath in a civil case. And he was caught. The fact that the lie was about a short-term affair is not what is important. What he lied about on that was in regards to a sexual-harassment suit brought against him by Paula Jones.
But knowing that Mr. Gingrich was shtooping Calista at the same time, what did that do the proceedings?
And if that does not bother you, how about this devastating piece in The American Spectator by Quin Hillyer? And Rick Santorum pointed out the grandiosity of Mr. Gingrich that Mr. Hillyer does in the piece. But this is the critical line of the piece:
Gingrich was great at rabble rousing. He was awful at actually managing things
I would alter it this way:
Gingrich is great at rabble rousing. He is awful at actually managing things.
And he has the Nixonian view of any disagreement as being an enemy.
We lived that before and it was a traumatic era in the United States.
This is the most critical election in my life. And to blow it because we like when Mr. Gingrich goes gonzo on the Leftywhore media. Or when he slams Mitt Romney for. . .making money. For once being a strong believer in Globaloney Warming to weaseling worse than anyone on stage. For once backing the individual mandate in national health care and now weaseling on that.
And yet Mitt Romney is called a flip-flopper.
And while it is not something that is good, optics and attitude matter.
A thrice-married, kind of short, a little chubby, white-haired White guy next to the youngish, handsome mixed-race success story with a very nice family. The first mentioned guy pretty mercurial a lot of the time. The latter guy with a smile.
Like it or not, people vote for someone who exudes a positive quality. Look at Mr. Reagan, both Mr. Bush's, Mr. Clinton.
At the end of the day, a vote for Newt Gingrich is a vote for Richard Nixon from the grave. And that is not a good vote for the United States.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
So What About Those New Hampshire Primary Results?
Well, the people of the Granite State, New Hampshire have spoken and for the Republicans, it was a good win for Mitt Romney.
As the results show, Mr. Romney won almost every county in the state. OK, there are only 10 counties. But winning nine out of 10 counties is rather amazing. And considering Mr. Romney did so only winning 39% of the statewide vote. The only county to fall out of the Romney victory is the northern county of Coos county which looks like it is going to go with, gulp, Crazy Uncle Ron Paul.
So what is behind the numbers?
Mr. Romney seems to have swept all the major categories. And that does bode well as he begins to take the campaign to the next state, South Carolina.
Crazy Uncle Ron Paul may have peaked by getting about 23% of the votes in this open primary. As the primary season continues, many of the states are closed but to Republicans. Thus, all the independents and Democrats that voted for Crazy Uncle Ron will find it harder to pump up his numbers.
Jon Huntsman, Jr. What is to say about this guy? He lives in this state for the election season, eschewing the Iowa caucus and comes up with. . .17% of the vote?! I mean, with the Boston Globe endorsement, doncha think he could have at least gotten, oh I don't know, at least 20% of the vote?!
So there is a battle for fourth place and that is between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
At this writing, both are coming in at about nine percent each. Mr. Gingrich is in fourth in five of the ten counties as is Mr. Santorum.
Now they are tied, but I think that Mr. Santorum is helped much more than Mr. Gingrich. If you look at the chart at the link, Mr. Santorum went from being on life support to almost 10% of the vote. Mr. Gingrich went from being second and seemingly a real threat to Mr. Romney to crashing trying to win double-digit numbers.
Rick Perry? Yup, he chose to make his stand in South Carolina and skipped New Hampshire.
Here is a clue.
Whenever a candidate does not make at least a token effort everywhere, that campaign is on life support. And Mr. Perry and Mr. Gingrich are there. On life support.
So, what should happen from here?
If he were smart, and I don't think he is, Mr. Perry would drop out and support Mr. Santorum.
Mr. Gingrich needs to look at the landscape and wonder, where can he make a stand. And it does not look good for him as South Carolina looks bleak and so does the next state, Florida. He may have to make a decision soon as well. And maybe before next week's primary in South Carolina.
Mr. Huntsman, Jr. should let his ego go and leave the race. Again, he will not because he thinks he is just, well so above it all. So cool.
That leaves Mr. Santorum.
And for me, this is where I believe the race comes down to.
Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
The above mentioned are already also-rans.
Mr. Santorum must do a strong second place finish in South Carolina. And he will be up against Gov. Nikki Haley and possibly Sen. Jim DeMint. Sen. DeMint supported Mr. Romney in 2008. And while he is not formally endorsing anyone, I do not doubt that he does pretty much support Mr. Romney. But Mr. Santorum is tough, smart and gets that Mr. Romney is not the enemy.
If he remains competitive to the end, Mr. Romney could look to Mr. Santorum as his running mate. And I would love to see Mr. Santorum debate Vice-President Plugs, er Biden.
And this race for the Republican nomination may have gone into the race for second place, literally, in a quick couple of weeks.
That is what will be important about the New Hampshire Republican primary results for 2012.
As the results show, Mr. Romney won almost every county in the state. OK, there are only 10 counties. But winning nine out of 10 counties is rather amazing. And considering Mr. Romney did so only winning 39% of the statewide vote. The only county to fall out of the Romney victory is the northern county of Coos county which looks like it is going to go with, gulp, Crazy Uncle Ron Paul.
So what is behind the numbers?
Mr. Romney seems to have swept all the major categories. And that does bode well as he begins to take the campaign to the next state, South Carolina.
Crazy Uncle Ron Paul may have peaked by getting about 23% of the votes in this open primary. As the primary season continues, many of the states are closed but to Republicans. Thus, all the independents and Democrats that voted for Crazy Uncle Ron will find it harder to pump up his numbers.
Jon Huntsman, Jr. What is to say about this guy? He lives in this state for the election season, eschewing the Iowa caucus and comes up with. . .17% of the vote?! I mean, with the Boston Globe endorsement, doncha think he could have at least gotten, oh I don't know, at least 20% of the vote?!
So there is a battle for fourth place and that is between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
At this writing, both are coming in at about nine percent each. Mr. Gingrich is in fourth in five of the ten counties as is Mr. Santorum.
Now they are tied, but I think that Mr. Santorum is helped much more than Mr. Gingrich. If you look at the chart at the link, Mr. Santorum went from being on life support to almost 10% of the vote. Mr. Gingrich went from being second and seemingly a real threat to Mr. Romney to crashing trying to win double-digit numbers.
Rick Perry? Yup, he chose to make his stand in South Carolina and skipped New Hampshire.
Here is a clue.
Whenever a candidate does not make at least a token effort everywhere, that campaign is on life support. And Mr. Perry and Mr. Gingrich are there. On life support.
So, what should happen from here?
If he were smart, and I don't think he is, Mr. Perry would drop out and support Mr. Santorum.
Mr. Gingrich needs to look at the landscape and wonder, where can he make a stand. And it does not look good for him as South Carolina looks bleak and so does the next state, Florida. He may have to make a decision soon as well. And maybe before next week's primary in South Carolina.
Mr. Huntsman, Jr. should let his ego go and leave the race. Again, he will not because he thinks he is just, well so above it all. So cool.
That leaves Mr. Santorum.
And for me, this is where I believe the race comes down to.
Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
The above mentioned are already also-rans.
Mr. Santorum must do a strong second place finish in South Carolina. And he will be up against Gov. Nikki Haley and possibly Sen. Jim DeMint. Sen. DeMint supported Mr. Romney in 2008. And while he is not formally endorsing anyone, I do not doubt that he does pretty much support Mr. Romney. But Mr. Santorum is tough, smart and gets that Mr. Romney is not the enemy.
If he remains competitive to the end, Mr. Romney could look to Mr. Santorum as his running mate. And I would love to see Mr. Santorum debate Vice-President Plugs, er Biden.
And this race for the Republican nomination may have gone into the race for second place, literally, in a quick couple of weeks.
That is what will be important about the New Hampshire Republican primary results for 2012.
Monday, January 09, 2012
So, Who Will Come In Second In New Hampshire?
OK, I will make the bold prediction that Mitt Romney will win the New Hampshire Republican primary.
So the real question is two-fold.
First, how many votes will Mr. Romney get.
Second is who will finish second and will it be close or not.
Lets take what I believe will be the percentage of votes Mr. Romney gets. I think that Mr. Romney will get 45% of the vote.
The disappointment for Team Romney will be two-fold.
First, that they will not break 50%. It would mean that there would be a run away for Mr. Romney and no one would really be able to stop him.
Second it will boost whoever finishes second and the distance between those votes.
So, here is my fearless prediction on how the percentage of votes will breakdown tomorrow night.
Mitt Romney: 45%
Rick Santorum: 24%
Jon Huntsman, Jr: 15%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
Rick Perry: 5%
The Rest: 2%
Ah, see who finishes second?
OK, maybe if you look at the results from Dixville Notch, you might think that I am off on second place.
But hang with me on this.
Sure, Rick Santorum is taking the beating now that he had his strong finish in Iowa. It will not be enough to win in Mr. Romney's neighborhood. But it makes him one to beginning to be taken seriously.
And judging by the crowds Mr. Santorum has been drawing, it is safe to say that he will be in the top three no matter what.
The huge loser, as he has been this campaign is Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Sure, I believe that he will end up third, but all the time and effort that he put into New Hampshire will make him this political season's Rudy Giuliani. All the rage of the Washington Beltway and the elites but no traction in the mind of the electorate.
And Newt Gingrich will not fare well here either. But he was not supposed to either. My guess is that he is making his stand along with Rick Perry in South Carolina.
If Mr. Santorum does indeed finish second, and Mr. Romney does not break 50%, then by default he will be the one that conservative Republicans will begin to look to as the primary-no pun intended-opponent to Mr. Romney.
It should be a very interesting night tomorrow in New Hampshire.
And the race will continue no matter what.
So the real question is two-fold.
First, how many votes will Mr. Romney get.
Second is who will finish second and will it be close or not.
Lets take what I believe will be the percentage of votes Mr. Romney gets. I think that Mr. Romney will get 45% of the vote.
The disappointment for Team Romney will be two-fold.
First, that they will not break 50%. It would mean that there would be a run away for Mr. Romney and no one would really be able to stop him.
Second it will boost whoever finishes second and the distance between those votes.
So, here is my fearless prediction on how the percentage of votes will breakdown tomorrow night.
Mitt Romney: 45%
Rick Santorum: 24%
Jon Huntsman, Jr: 15%
Newt Gingrich: 9%
Rick Perry: 5%
The Rest: 2%
Ah, see who finishes second?
OK, maybe if you look at the results from Dixville Notch, you might think that I am off on second place.
But hang with me on this.
Sure, Rick Santorum is taking the beating now that he had his strong finish in Iowa. It will not be enough to win in Mr. Romney's neighborhood. But it makes him one to beginning to be taken seriously.
And judging by the crowds Mr. Santorum has been drawing, it is safe to say that he will be in the top three no matter what.
The huge loser, as he has been this campaign is Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Sure, I believe that he will end up third, but all the time and effort that he put into New Hampshire will make him this political season's Rudy Giuliani. All the rage of the Washington Beltway and the elites but no traction in the mind of the electorate.
And Newt Gingrich will not fare well here either. But he was not supposed to either. My guess is that he is making his stand along with Rick Perry in South Carolina.
If Mr. Santorum does indeed finish second, and Mr. Romney does not break 50%, then by default he will be the one that conservative Republicans will begin to look to as the primary-no pun intended-opponent to Mr. Romney.
It should be a very interesting night tomorrow in New Hampshire.
And the race will continue no matter what.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Can Santorum Go Up The Middle For An Upset?
As Newt Gingrich slams Crazy Uncle Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, Crazy Uncle Ron slams Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney slamming both, is there someone that can rise above it all and win the Iowa caucus scheduled for next Tuesday?
That is the question posed by National Review's Rich Lowry.
However, Mr. Lowry does not provide an answer.
So, I will.
And I think that this could be the opening one Rick Santorum may be looking for to pull off an upset in the Iowa caucus.
Yeah, Mr. Santorum is not burning up the poll numbers according to the Real Clear Politics averages. But if you look at the graph closely, Mr. Santorum's numbers are moving up. The closest to him would be Congressman Michele Bachmann at nine percent and going down. Then there is Texas governor Rick Perry at a flat-line 12%.
When you consider that there are six announced candidates and one, Jon Huntsman, Jr. is all but writing off the Hawkeye State, It can take as little as 25% to win the caucus.
And when you think about the fact that Mr. Santorum's numbers are going up and he is the only candidate to visit all 99 Iowa counties, there is something potentially going on.
And again, if caucus goers don't like what they see as The Three Stooges in Messrs. Gingrich, Paul and Romney, many may take that second look at someone like Mr. Santorum.
John McCormick at The Weekly Standard does a great job explaining why Mr. Santorum could pull off a win in Iowa. And radio talker Hugh Hewitt, a known Romney supporter in 2008 and leaning his way now is fair. He is pointing out how the Leftywhore media is writing about Mr. Santorum as they write about Mr. Romney. All negative, all the time.
But I want to respond to this Mr. McCormick wrote in the negative about Mr. Santorum and the Leftywhore media GOP establishment Axis:
There are reasons why pundits say Santorum can’t win. One is that he’s washed up—having lost his Senate seat by 18 points to Bob Casey Jr. in 2006. Santorum counters that he won two of his three statewide races as a conservative running in Democratic Pennsylvania—first in the 1994 Republican revolution and again in 2000, when he won by 6 points while George W. Bush was losing the state by 5 points.
UGH! So what that Mr. Santorum lost his senate reelection bid in 2006. By 18 fricking points. The 2006 election was a Democrat massacre against the Republicans. And one of the scalps big on the Democrat mantle was a Pennsylvania senator named Santorum. Funny how the same Axis of Evil never went after some dolt named Lincoln Chafee. He ran as a Republican the same year for the Rhode Island senate seat. And he lost. In 2010, he ran as an independent for the governor's office in Rhode Island. And won. Even Ronald Reagan lost a couple of runs at the presidency.
And that somehow, Mr. Santroum is overly polarizing. Really? More than Mr. Polarizing himself, the Dear Leader, President Obama? Because Mr. Santorum actually believes what he says? As long as he can articulate it and back it up, he will not have a problem in any way.
The problem for Mr. Santorum is that he may not have peaked right to make a difference in Iowa. That is a real concern for Team Santorum.
But maybe all the fighting at the top of the field is the opening that Mr. Santorum needs to pull of the Iowa Upset.
That is the question posed by National Review's Rich Lowry.
However, Mr. Lowry does not provide an answer.
So, I will.
And I think that this could be the opening one Rick Santorum may be looking for to pull off an upset in the Iowa caucus.
Yeah, Mr. Santorum is not burning up the poll numbers according to the Real Clear Politics averages. But if you look at the graph closely, Mr. Santorum's numbers are moving up. The closest to him would be Congressman Michele Bachmann at nine percent and going down. Then there is Texas governor Rick Perry at a flat-line 12%.
When you consider that there are six announced candidates and one, Jon Huntsman, Jr. is all but writing off the Hawkeye State, It can take as little as 25% to win the caucus.
And when you think about the fact that Mr. Santorum's numbers are going up and he is the only candidate to visit all 99 Iowa counties, there is something potentially going on.
And again, if caucus goers don't like what they see as The Three Stooges in Messrs. Gingrich, Paul and Romney, many may take that second look at someone like Mr. Santorum.
John McCormick at The Weekly Standard does a great job explaining why Mr. Santorum could pull off a win in Iowa. And radio talker Hugh Hewitt, a known Romney supporter in 2008 and leaning his way now is fair. He is pointing out how the Leftywhore media is writing about Mr. Santorum as they write about Mr. Romney. All negative, all the time.
But I want to respond to this Mr. McCormick wrote in the negative about Mr. Santorum and the Leftywhore media GOP establishment Axis:
There are reasons why pundits say Santorum can’t win. One is that he’s washed up—having lost his Senate seat by 18 points to Bob Casey Jr. in 2006. Santorum counters that he won two of his three statewide races as a conservative running in Democratic Pennsylvania—first in the 1994 Republican revolution and again in 2000, when he won by 6 points while George W. Bush was losing the state by 5 points.
UGH! So what that Mr. Santorum lost his senate reelection bid in 2006. By 18 fricking points. The 2006 election was a Democrat massacre against the Republicans. And one of the scalps big on the Democrat mantle was a Pennsylvania senator named Santorum. Funny how the same Axis of Evil never went after some dolt named Lincoln Chafee. He ran as a Republican the same year for the Rhode Island senate seat. And he lost. In 2010, he ran as an independent for the governor's office in Rhode Island. And won. Even Ronald Reagan lost a couple of runs at the presidency.
And that somehow, Mr. Santroum is overly polarizing. Really? More than Mr. Polarizing himself, the Dear Leader, President Obama? Because Mr. Santorum actually believes what he says? As long as he can articulate it and back it up, he will not have a problem in any way.
The problem for Mr. Santorum is that he may not have peaked right to make a difference in Iowa. That is a real concern for Team Santorum.
But maybe all the fighting at the top of the field is the opening that Mr. Santorum needs to pull of the Iowa Upset.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Can Rick Santorum Mess Everyone's Plans In Iowa?
While all the media, conservative and leftywhore, are zeroing in on making the GOP presidential nomination a two-man race, can I throw a monkey wrench in that?
All media seems to be narrowing down the Republican field to the former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, and the former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich.
The two states that start off the actual primary caucus season are Iowa and New Hampshire.
Iowans get to caucus first on January 3, 2012 closely followed by New Hampshire on January 10, 2012.
So, Mr. Gingrich is leading Mr. Romney in both states.
But, there is a vast difference between the two states.
In Iowa, the state Republicans are conservative. And much more religious. The Evangelical Christian community especially in Western Iowa holds a lot of clout.
Only one candidate running has actually visited all of Iowa's 99 counties.
That candidate is the former Pennsylvania senator, Rick Santorum.
Because the caucus system basically is free-for-all and based on a majority of groups, Mr. Santorum is banking on taking the traditional approach and doing the retail politics of meet and greet.
Not that the two others, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney are not. But not the way that Mr. Santorum has.
Sure, Mr. Santorum has been essentially shut out of the debates sponsored by and moderated by the leftywhore media. But when he does get the 30 second attempt at an answer, he is very sharp and focused.
One other thing that the media seems to not grasp is that Mr. Santorum's very strong stands on social issues can only help him with this group of voters. Just ask the Rev. Mike Huckabee. It sure helped him in 2008. It all but ended the Mitt Romney train.
Almost all Iowa polling shows Mr. Santorum in mid single-digits. But again, the caucus way is different from the primary way of voting. It is all about organization. It is also all about what candidate will appeal to that group of voters that could put some one like a Mr. Santorum on a momentum not seen by most.
A third place or above finish in Iowa could be a huge boost to Mr. Santorum's candidacy. First place could in fact throw the whole GOP race into beyond uncharted territory.
Now I know one of the knocks on Mr. Santorum is that he lost his bid for reelection to the senate in 2006. By 20 points. But almost every candidate for office loses an election. And what those ripping him for losing that race seem to forget is that is the year the Democrats regained control of the House of Representative. And the senate. And that Mr. Santorum never backed down from his positions to try to win reelection.
But when you listen to him talk, he has the passion for the issues that I sometimes think Mr. Romney lacks. A knowledge that does not come off that he thinks he is the smartest guy or gal in the room. A la Mr. Gingrich. Mr. Santorum has also won races that he was not supposed to win in the home state of Pennsylvania. Can he do that in Iowa?
Again, in Iowa it is all about organization. And it does appear that Mr. Santorum does have that. And that may not be showing up in polls. Did not for the Rev. Mike until just days before the caucus took place.
I think that one should watch for the possibility that one Rick Santorum may just mess every one's plans up in Iowa come January 3.
All media seems to be narrowing down the Republican field to the former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, and the former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich.
The two states that start off the actual primary caucus season are Iowa and New Hampshire.
Iowans get to caucus first on January 3, 2012 closely followed by New Hampshire on January 10, 2012.
So, Mr. Gingrich is leading Mr. Romney in both states.
But, there is a vast difference between the two states.
In Iowa, the state Republicans are conservative. And much more religious. The Evangelical Christian community especially in Western Iowa holds a lot of clout.
Only one candidate running has actually visited all of Iowa's 99 counties.
That candidate is the former Pennsylvania senator, Rick Santorum.
Because the caucus system basically is free-for-all and based on a majority of groups, Mr. Santorum is banking on taking the traditional approach and doing the retail politics of meet and greet.
Not that the two others, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney are not. But not the way that Mr. Santorum has.
Sure, Mr. Santorum has been essentially shut out of the debates sponsored by and moderated by the leftywhore media. But when he does get the 30 second attempt at an answer, he is very sharp and focused.
One other thing that the media seems to not grasp is that Mr. Santorum's very strong stands on social issues can only help him with this group of voters. Just ask the Rev. Mike Huckabee. It sure helped him in 2008. It all but ended the Mitt Romney train.
Almost all Iowa polling shows Mr. Santorum in mid single-digits. But again, the caucus way is different from the primary way of voting. It is all about organization. It is also all about what candidate will appeal to that group of voters that could put some one like a Mr. Santorum on a momentum not seen by most.
A third place or above finish in Iowa could be a huge boost to Mr. Santorum's candidacy. First place could in fact throw the whole GOP race into beyond uncharted territory.
Now I know one of the knocks on Mr. Santorum is that he lost his bid for reelection to the senate in 2006. By 20 points. But almost every candidate for office loses an election. And what those ripping him for losing that race seem to forget is that is the year the Democrats regained control of the House of Representative. And the senate. And that Mr. Santorum never backed down from his positions to try to win reelection.
But when you listen to him talk, he has the passion for the issues that I sometimes think Mr. Romney lacks. A knowledge that does not come off that he thinks he is the smartest guy or gal in the room. A la Mr. Gingrich. Mr. Santorum has also won races that he was not supposed to win in the home state of Pennsylvania. Can he do that in Iowa?
Again, in Iowa it is all about organization. And it does appear that Mr. Santorum does have that. And that may not be showing up in polls. Did not for the Rev. Mike until just days before the caucus took place.
I think that one should watch for the possibility that one Rick Santorum may just mess every one's plans up in Iowa come January 3.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Chris Christie Is Right-2012 Presidential Race No Cakewalk For GOP
I am not always in agreement with the Republican New Jersey governor, Chris Christie.
But, Gov. Christie is right on one thing.
The Republicans can not count the 2012 presidential chickens before they hatch.
In a Facebook chat yesterday. Gov. Christie said this about the 2012 race:
"Anyone who underestimates the president underestimates at their own peril," Christie said. "(Democrats) know how to campaign, they know politics. ... People who believe he's a shoo-in loser are wrong."
On this, Gov. Christie gets it.
Way too many of my fellow conservatives and Republicans think that the American people are ready to throw the Dear Leader, President Obama, out on his ear come November, 2012. And that maybe the case. But if the election were to be held today, based on these polls, the Dear Leader, President Obama would win. Not necessarily by a landslide, but he would win.
It is not a surprise to your humble blogger.
The Dear Leader, President Obama, will raise the most money evah. He will have a bevy of allies including his Obamawhore-worshiping media darlings. And there is the power of incumbency.
That is why it is important that no matter who is the Republican presidential nominee, save for Congressman Ron Paul or the former Utah governor, Jon Huntsman, Jr., to rally the troops to the main cause.
DEFEAT PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!
Clearly, any of the front-runners for the Republican presidential nomination are preferable over the Dear Leader, President Obama.
And the polls I do link have some interesting caveats.
One, all the polls involving former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, show him gaining ground on the Dear Leader, President Obama. As Mr. Gingrich is gaining traction with Republican voters, this solidifies that trend.
The businessman, Herman Cain, is starting to fade. I like Mr. Cain, but I fear that the amateurishness of his campaign is wearing thin on independents and some Republicans. I am not sure he can recover in time for the Iowa caucus.
That leaves the front-runner, former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney. His campaign is a well-oiled machines and Mr. Romney polls the best head-to-head against the Dear Leader, President Obama. And in looking at the Real Clear Politics average of all polls, Mr. Romney and the Dear Leader, President Obama, are essentially in a dead heat.
Most important caveat is that all the polling is national.
We do not know a lot about the early states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina. That is where the GOP nomination maybe decided.
But the thrust of Gov. Christies comment is that we can not and should not underestimate anything from Team Obama and the Democrat party.
This maybe it for them for at least four years. The Republicans may have two of the three branches of the federal government in Washington. They know that if they do not win at least the White House again in 2012, people may get comfortable enough with one-party rule to re-elect the Republican president in 2016. And that president could alter the course of the United States for a generation.
As I have noted many times, and Gov. Christie is saying that the Democrats eat, live and sleep politics. It is 24/7/365 for these dudes and dudettes. Republicans can not and better not get lazy and or complacent.
On Gov. Christie's warning, conservatives and Republicans take note. He is right and we need to keep our eye on the prize.
DEFEAT PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!
But, Gov. Christie is right on one thing.
The Republicans can not count the 2012 presidential chickens before they hatch.
In a Facebook chat yesterday. Gov. Christie said this about the 2012 race:
"Anyone who underestimates the president underestimates at their own peril," Christie said. "(Democrats) know how to campaign, they know politics. ... People who believe he's a shoo-in loser are wrong."
On this, Gov. Christie gets it.
Way too many of my fellow conservatives and Republicans think that the American people are ready to throw the Dear Leader, President Obama, out on his ear come November, 2012. And that maybe the case. But if the election were to be held today, based on these polls, the Dear Leader, President Obama would win. Not necessarily by a landslide, but he would win.
It is not a surprise to your humble blogger.
The Dear Leader, President Obama, will raise the most money evah. He will have a bevy of allies including his Obamawhore-worshiping media darlings. And there is the power of incumbency.
That is why it is important that no matter who is the Republican presidential nominee, save for Congressman Ron Paul or the former Utah governor, Jon Huntsman, Jr., to rally the troops to the main cause.
DEFEAT PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!
Clearly, any of the front-runners for the Republican presidential nomination are preferable over the Dear Leader, President Obama.
And the polls I do link have some interesting caveats.
One, all the polls involving former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, show him gaining ground on the Dear Leader, President Obama. As Mr. Gingrich is gaining traction with Republican voters, this solidifies that trend.
The businessman, Herman Cain, is starting to fade. I like Mr. Cain, but I fear that the amateurishness of his campaign is wearing thin on independents and some Republicans. I am not sure he can recover in time for the Iowa caucus.
That leaves the front-runner, former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney. His campaign is a well-oiled machines and Mr. Romney polls the best head-to-head against the Dear Leader, President Obama. And in looking at the Real Clear Politics average of all polls, Mr. Romney and the Dear Leader, President Obama, are essentially in a dead heat.
Most important caveat is that all the polling is national.
We do not know a lot about the early states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina. That is where the GOP nomination maybe decided.
But the thrust of Gov. Christies comment is that we can not and should not underestimate anything from Team Obama and the Democrat party.
This maybe it for them for at least four years. The Republicans may have two of the three branches of the federal government in Washington. They know that if they do not win at least the White House again in 2012, people may get comfortable enough with one-party rule to re-elect the Republican president in 2016. And that president could alter the course of the United States for a generation.
As I have noted many times, and Gov. Christie is saying that the Democrats eat, live and sleep politics. It is 24/7/365 for these dudes and dudettes. Republicans can not and better not get lazy and or complacent.
On Gov. Christie's warning, conservatives and Republicans take note. He is right and we need to keep our eye on the prize.
DEFEAT PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Is This Just The Republican Silly Season?
Well, the two stories that seem to make me believe that to be the case involve the Texas governor, Rick Perry and businessman Herman Cain, the current front runner for the Republican presidential nomination.
Let's take the Gov. Perry "controversy" first.
Apparently last week during a speech to a group in New Hampshire it appears that Gov. Perry, at the very least, was hanging loose and having fun with his audience.
Now the linked video is cut and spliced so it shows Gov. Perry in not necessarily in the best light. The full video of the speech is here.
Now without going into great detail, I can assure you that the speculation that Gov. Perry was drunk or on some kind of meds is false. Trust me. I have been in an altered state due to alcohol consumption. And Gov. Perry is not drunk. He is not slurring his speech or doing anything other than going off script.
Have we become so used to the kind of politician, say like the Dear Leader, President Obama, or so many that are so tightly wound that a little fun and going off script has Carrie Nation rising from the grave? Suspecting a sitting governor of hitting the moonshine? I am afraid so.
I am not big on Gov. Perry. I still do not really get why he is running for president. But, the thrust of his speech was discussing his tax proposals, which are serious business. So he had fun with a friendly audience? To paraphrase our illustrious Vice-President, Brain Surgeon Joe Biden, it is not a BFD*.
Yet the Leftywhore media is jumping on this like a wino to Night Train. And worse is that there is no proof whatsoever that Gov. Perry was buzzed, drunk or over medicated on something. Possibly tired, but not drunk.
It is time to move off that story. Again, the real story is that Gov. Perry has as serious a tax reform plan as our friend, Herman Cain, and the 9-9-9 plan.
Ahh, but Herman, Herman, Herman. Tsk, tsk, tsk.
The charges against Mr. Cain are potentially much more serious.
Allegedly, Mr. Cain while the head of the National Restaurant Association he was accused of sexual harassment not just by one but two women. This was in the 1990s.
The NRA (not the gun people), decided to settle with one of the women. And she got a full year salary of about $35,000 and the financial settlement.
Mr. Cain denies that he sexually harassed any women.
Now, having a financial settlement is not an admission of guilt.
Regrettably quite often when such charges are leveled, a deal is cut with the accuser to make it go away. Usually, there is no guilt to the accused, the accuser gets a settlement with a company and all are happy. Sort of.
But the website Politico has rehashed these charges and there is a lot of it that, for the moment, does not really seem to hurt Mr. Cain. In fact, it starts to look really like there is a political rat trying to derail the Cain Train. Over at HotAir, Allahpundit has a good round up of the Cain Case here and here.
Again, I like Herman Cain and think that he is a great, non-politician candidate. But is not the first rule of being in the arena to get these potential firebombs out of the way before they are thrown at you?
Of course all of this helps Mitt Romney. And I think starts making people take a second look at Newt Gingrich.
But the real story is that it really is a silly point in the endless political season.
And it needs to stop.
The United States has major problems. And we who believe that the current president, the Dear Leader, President Obama, is not up to the job are looking for the right candidate.
He or she does not have to be perfect, but ready for anything.
Right now, like it or not, Herman Cain and Gov. Rick Perry do not shine as one ready for anything.
For the sake of the republic, let us get back to the serious issues facing the United States.
Time for the silly season to end.
*BFD-Big f---ing deal.
Let's take the Gov. Perry "controversy" first.
Apparently last week during a speech to a group in New Hampshire it appears that Gov. Perry, at the very least, was hanging loose and having fun with his audience.
Now the linked video is cut and spliced so it shows Gov. Perry in not necessarily in the best light. The full video of the speech is here.
Now without going into great detail, I can assure you that the speculation that Gov. Perry was drunk or on some kind of meds is false. Trust me. I have been in an altered state due to alcohol consumption. And Gov. Perry is not drunk. He is not slurring his speech or doing anything other than going off script.
Have we become so used to the kind of politician, say like the Dear Leader, President Obama, or so many that are so tightly wound that a little fun and going off script has Carrie Nation rising from the grave? Suspecting a sitting governor of hitting the moonshine? I am afraid so.
I am not big on Gov. Perry. I still do not really get why he is running for president. But, the thrust of his speech was discussing his tax proposals, which are serious business. So he had fun with a friendly audience? To paraphrase our illustrious Vice-President, Brain Surgeon Joe Biden, it is not a BFD*.
Yet the Leftywhore media is jumping on this like a wino to Night Train. And worse is that there is no proof whatsoever that Gov. Perry was buzzed, drunk or over medicated on something. Possibly tired, but not drunk.
It is time to move off that story. Again, the real story is that Gov. Perry has as serious a tax reform plan as our friend, Herman Cain, and the 9-9-9 plan.
Ahh, but Herman, Herman, Herman. Tsk, tsk, tsk.
The charges against Mr. Cain are potentially much more serious.
Allegedly, Mr. Cain while the head of the National Restaurant Association he was accused of sexual harassment not just by one but two women. This was in the 1990s.
The NRA (not the gun people), decided to settle with one of the women. And she got a full year salary of about $35,000 and the financial settlement.
Mr. Cain denies that he sexually harassed any women.
Now, having a financial settlement is not an admission of guilt.
Regrettably quite often when such charges are leveled, a deal is cut with the accuser to make it go away. Usually, there is no guilt to the accused, the accuser gets a settlement with a company and all are happy. Sort of.
But the website Politico has rehashed these charges and there is a lot of it that, for the moment, does not really seem to hurt Mr. Cain. In fact, it starts to look really like there is a political rat trying to derail the Cain Train. Over at HotAir, Allahpundit has a good round up of the Cain Case here and here.
Again, I like Herman Cain and think that he is a great, non-politician candidate. But is not the first rule of being in the arena to get these potential firebombs out of the way before they are thrown at you?
Of course all of this helps Mitt Romney. And I think starts making people take a second look at Newt Gingrich.
But the real story is that it really is a silly point in the endless political season.
And it needs to stop.
The United States has major problems. And we who believe that the current president, the Dear Leader, President Obama, is not up to the job are looking for the right candidate.
He or she does not have to be perfect, but ready for anything.
Right now, like it or not, Herman Cain and Gov. Rick Perry do not shine as one ready for anything.
For the sake of the republic, let us get back to the serious issues facing the United States.
Time for the silly season to end.
*BFD-Big f---ing deal.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
What Is So Bad About The Republican Presidential Field?
I ask the question because a lot of the bloggers and the punditry are suggesting that somehow, this Republican presidential field is "weak", "ineffective" and will lose badly to the Dear Leader, President Obama.
First, I think it is fair to say that not all the candidates are top-tier. In fact, one can make the case that there is a three-division breakdown of the candidates.
What prompted me to give this any time is this post of John Tabin's in the American Spectator blog.
Mr. Tabin suggests that there should have been a conservative candidate to come in on the white horse to save the day.
I would have really liked former Alaska governor Sarah Palin to get in the race. But for good reason she chose not to.
But that aside, I will try to evaluate the field from top-tier to bottom-feeders. Yeah, there are a couple of those.
Here is the caveat.
Every one has a black mark so to speak on their record. They are not perfect. But I am not going to deal with those issues. I am going to cite best to the worst in no particular order.
Top-tier Republican candidates:
Mitt Romney:
Say what you want about the former Massachusetts governor but he remains the guy to beat. And he learned from the last presidential run. He has a better organization and looks to be taking every state seriously. One of the problems is trying to convince conservative primary voters that he is one of us. All I can suggest is to look at the overall record as governor of Massachusetts. Take RomneyCare out of the equation. It is a bad law no matter what he says to defend it. Of three previous Republican governors, Mr. Romney had the most conservative record. And considering the Democrat party controlled well over 75% of the seats of the state legislature, that has to be looked at as an accomplishment. But many are rightfully suspicious and feel he may not know how to govern with a Republican congress. But the important question is can he stand toe-to-toe with the Dear Leader, President Obama? One thing the endless debates are showing is yes. And he is beginning to show a passion that I really think he needs to win the whole thing.
Rick Perry:
OK, I am not overly convinced why Texas Gov. Perry is running for president. I mean, it seems in a way like he was pushed into the race. And until his tax proposal on Wednesday, I thought Gov. Perry was a goner and going lower in this category. But, his 20/20 flat-tax plan is a serious attempt to reform the federal income tax code. And that alone brings back his candidacy. Anyone that wants to make serious reform to this so-called "progressive" tax system needs all the support or she can get. But, Gov. Perry, you need to be more articulate about where you want to take the United States. Your passion is there, but a tightening-up on how you explain your policies is important. I think that his governance of Texas, which has created one of the few strong economies in the United States deserves a look. and that makes him in the top-tier of GOP candidates.
Herman Cain:
I would not have written this a month ago. But Mr. Cain has caught fire. To many of us, he is a real deal. Not a politician but someone that wants to help the United States recover from the economic doldrums and assert leadership sorely missing in the world. But, he too has a problem. He needs to make some serious foreign policy appointments and speeches. The now famous 9-9-9 tax reform plan, not my favorite, is again a stab at serious federal tax reform. I applaud this serious effort. The fact that Mr. Cain does not always know the answer and says so is refreshing. Again, if he can get good people around him as advisers, he should have serious staying power in the caucus/primary season.
Newt Gingrich:
Here is the guy that will surprise all, including myself. I think that he is underestimated at our own peril. Mr. Gingrich, the man who all but single-handidly won Republican control of the House of Representatives in 1994 is back. Not that he went anywhere. But in a strange turn of events, he is the senior-statesman of the field. In debates he is calming candidates down. He is the one making the most articulate points. And people watching those debates come away impressed. I am one of them. And he is constantly bringing up fresh, conservative ideas. Do not count him out.
OK, the next category is a category of one. Sorry to do this, but I am writing the truth as I see it.
Fading, And Fading Fast
Michele Bachmann:
Maybe we put way too much in her candidacy. The fact that she was running when Mrs. Palin was not. The family story. Whatever. But whatever is all I can say about a promising candidate. I believe that she has the problem Newt usually has. Discipline. And making some indefenisble comments. Won't get into that here, but suffice it to say, it puts some serious doubts for her in the long run. I hope that she gets back to running for her congressional seat and keeps being a conservative leader.
The next is a sad one because both are serious men but have no chance and should pull up the stakes now.
The Bottem-Feeders
Rick Santorum:
The former Pennsylvania Republican senator has been more or less swinging for the fences in the debates and is the social conservative favorite. But the fact of the matter is that he is reminded of a glaring and unfair fact. He lost his senate reelection bid by 20 points. And people do not like a loser. No matter how much he or she is a candidate that is more right than wrong, we want a winner. And Mr. Santorum does not look like a winner.
Jon Huntsman, Jr:
Why is he running? He is trying to run a general election campaign and ignore the conservative base. Shows a poor lack of judgement. Also, why if he wanted to run for president would he choose, as a Republican, to serve this Democrat president as ambassador to Red China? He needs to leave and leave now.
Ron Paul:
Crickets chirping. There is not much I can write except I like Sen. Rand Paul much more than the old man. Period.
Out of eight candidates, there are at least four that are very good and serious about what the United States needs to get back economically, govenrnance and it rightful standing as a leader in the international community.
I will argue that it is a strong field overall and there is not a magic candidate. Nor should there be.
That is why we are having caucus and primaries.
I will take almost any of these candidates, even the weak ones, over the current president, the Dear Leader, President Obama.
And that is what we need to keep our eye on that ball!
First, I think it is fair to say that not all the candidates are top-tier. In fact, one can make the case that there is a three-division breakdown of the candidates.
What prompted me to give this any time is this post of John Tabin's in the American Spectator blog.
Mr. Tabin suggests that there should have been a conservative candidate to come in on the white horse to save the day.
I would have really liked former Alaska governor Sarah Palin to get in the race. But for good reason she chose not to.
But that aside, I will try to evaluate the field from top-tier to bottom-feeders. Yeah, there are a couple of those.
Here is the caveat.
Every one has a black mark so to speak on their record. They are not perfect. But I am not going to deal with those issues. I am going to cite best to the worst in no particular order.
Top-tier Republican candidates:
Mitt Romney:
Say what you want about the former Massachusetts governor but he remains the guy to beat. And he learned from the last presidential run. He has a better organization and looks to be taking every state seriously. One of the problems is trying to convince conservative primary voters that he is one of us. All I can suggest is to look at the overall record as governor of Massachusetts. Take RomneyCare out of the equation. It is a bad law no matter what he says to defend it. Of three previous Republican governors, Mr. Romney had the most conservative record. And considering the Democrat party controlled well over 75% of the seats of the state legislature, that has to be looked at as an accomplishment. But many are rightfully suspicious and feel he may not know how to govern with a Republican congress. But the important question is can he stand toe-to-toe with the Dear Leader, President Obama? One thing the endless debates are showing is yes. And he is beginning to show a passion that I really think he needs to win the whole thing.
Rick Perry:
OK, I am not overly convinced why Texas Gov. Perry is running for president. I mean, it seems in a way like he was pushed into the race. And until his tax proposal on Wednesday, I thought Gov. Perry was a goner and going lower in this category. But, his 20/20 flat-tax plan is a serious attempt to reform the federal income tax code. And that alone brings back his candidacy. Anyone that wants to make serious reform to this so-called "progressive" tax system needs all the support or she can get. But, Gov. Perry, you need to be more articulate about where you want to take the United States. Your passion is there, but a tightening-up on how you explain your policies is important. I think that his governance of Texas, which has created one of the few strong economies in the United States deserves a look. and that makes him in the top-tier of GOP candidates.
Herman Cain:
I would not have written this a month ago. But Mr. Cain has caught fire. To many of us, he is a real deal. Not a politician but someone that wants to help the United States recover from the economic doldrums and assert leadership sorely missing in the world. But, he too has a problem. He needs to make some serious foreign policy appointments and speeches. The now famous 9-9-9 tax reform plan, not my favorite, is again a stab at serious federal tax reform. I applaud this serious effort. The fact that Mr. Cain does not always know the answer and says so is refreshing. Again, if he can get good people around him as advisers, he should have serious staying power in the caucus/primary season.
Newt Gingrich:
Here is the guy that will surprise all, including myself. I think that he is underestimated at our own peril. Mr. Gingrich, the man who all but single-handidly won Republican control of the House of Representatives in 1994 is back. Not that he went anywhere. But in a strange turn of events, he is the senior-statesman of the field. In debates he is calming candidates down. He is the one making the most articulate points. And people watching those debates come away impressed. I am one of them. And he is constantly bringing up fresh, conservative ideas. Do not count him out.
OK, the next category is a category of one. Sorry to do this, but I am writing the truth as I see it.
Fading, And Fading Fast
Michele Bachmann:
Maybe we put way too much in her candidacy. The fact that she was running when Mrs. Palin was not. The family story. Whatever. But whatever is all I can say about a promising candidate. I believe that she has the problem Newt usually has. Discipline. And making some indefenisble comments. Won't get into that here, but suffice it to say, it puts some serious doubts for her in the long run. I hope that she gets back to running for her congressional seat and keeps being a conservative leader.
The next is a sad one because both are serious men but have no chance and should pull up the stakes now.
The Bottem-Feeders
Rick Santorum:
The former Pennsylvania Republican senator has been more or less swinging for the fences in the debates and is the social conservative favorite. But the fact of the matter is that he is reminded of a glaring and unfair fact. He lost his senate reelection bid by 20 points. And people do not like a loser. No matter how much he or she is a candidate that is more right than wrong, we want a winner. And Mr. Santorum does not look like a winner.
Jon Huntsman, Jr:
Why is he running? He is trying to run a general election campaign and ignore the conservative base. Shows a poor lack of judgement. Also, why if he wanted to run for president would he choose, as a Republican, to serve this Democrat president as ambassador to Red China? He needs to leave and leave now.
Ron Paul:
Crickets chirping. There is not much I can write except I like Sen. Rand Paul much more than the old man. Period.
Out of eight candidates, there are at least four that are very good and serious about what the United States needs to get back economically, govenrnance and it rightful standing as a leader in the international community.
I will argue that it is a strong field overall and there is not a magic candidate. Nor should there be.
That is why we are having caucus and primaries.
I will take almost any of these candidates, even the weak ones, over the current president, the Dear Leader, President Obama.
And that is what we need to keep our eye on that ball!
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