What do I mean by what election day look like?
Simply put, will weather play a part in who votes where? What voters will be more motivated to vote on election day? Obama voters or Romney voters? Will the so-called battleground states all fall one way or will there be some surprises?
Well, as far as the weather, according to the Weather Channel, Election Day should be fine for people to get out and vote. Especially in the so-called battleground states.
As far as the voters motivated to actually show up to vote, that is easy.
The Romney/Ryan voters are beyond fired-up to get out and vote. There is no question to that. Over 30,000 show up at a Friday night rally near Cincinnati, Ohio for the Romney/Ryan ticket. Nearly 30,000 in Bucks county, Pennsylvania today for the GOP ticket.
What about the crowds for the incumbent Obama/Biden ticket?
By and large they can not break 5,000 any where that they show up. It appears that those that do show up are the hardcore base and the hangers-on.
Now maybe crowds do not matter all that much to some. But it is a lot of the way that volunteers will get out the vote on election day. It creates an abiding enthusiasm that can not be replicated by the other team. It shows that people are wanting to vote for someone than against they other.
If you do not believe that, as President John S. McCain.
In the waning days of the 2008 campaign, much as we tried to will Sen. "F--- You" McCain to victory, it was a lot like the Obamiacs are doing now. Not offering a reason to vote for them, but why voting for the other guy would be a disaster.
So, trust me, the motivation is totally on Romney/Ryan.
And the so-called battleground states will fall all one way or another or split?
No.
I honestly believe that it will all go one way and that dove-tails into the reality of the motivated voters.
All the battleground states will, by varying margins, fall into the Romney/Ryan camp.
Polls are very important indicators but always keep this in mind. They are but a snapshot in time. And that is the time that any poll is taken.
It must be noted that in the 2004 campaign, all the way to Election Day, Democrat presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), was leading in every single Ohio poll. Then President Bush never ever had a lead. Ever. And who won Ohio? President Bush by over 200.000 votes.
It is why those who want to vote for Romney/Ryan have between now and election day to not be discouraged and use all of this to work doubly hard to get out the vote. Unlike 2008, the Romney/Ryan ticket is really within the margins of error in every so-called battleground state.
This election could be an electoral college blowout, a split-decision a la 2000 or way too close everywhere.
I think it will be more like the first scenario and I will explain why in the next post.
Showing posts with label Battleground states. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Battleground states. Show all posts
Sunday, November 04, 2012
Tuesday, August 07, 2012
Is Romney Really Leading In Some Of Those Swing States?
The short answer to the headline is yes.
The complicated answer is probably.
The out there answer is hell yes!
At this link to Real Clear Politics, if you look over at the Battleground polls, the 12 states featured 10 of them show the Dear Leader, President Obama, in a lead of some kind. Only two of the twelve, Missouri (why it is considered a battleground state beats me) and North Carolina (slowly but surely moving out as a battleground state) are in Mr. Romney's camp.
So lets look at this state by state starting with the Dear Leader, President Obama. This will go from the smallest lead to the largest according to the RCP state polling average.
Iowa Obama +1.3%
Florida Obama +1.4%
Colorado Obama +2.7%
Virginia Obama +2.8%
New Hampshire Obama +3%
Ohio Obama +4.3%
Nevada Obama +5.3%
Wisconsin Obama +6%
Michigan Obama +6.3%
Pennsylvania Obama +7%
The only one the 10 states that at this point look out of reach for Mr Romney is Pennsylvania. But I would not call this the way it it will go down in Pennsylvania or any of the other seemingly Dear Leader, President Obama states.
The average lead of the 10 states is 4.1% and in most polling data, it is within the margin of error.
Now, look at the two Romney states that are still considered battleground states.
North Carolina Romney +1%
Missouri Romney +5.7%
The two Romney states show him ahead by an average of 3.4%. Also in the margin of error.
But, of the Dear Leader states, Colorado is slowly going away from him. The fact that the Dear Leader is barely ahead in Virginia should be cause for concern. Ditto New Hampshire. And then there is Ohio.
Ohio is the state that can and will determine the election. At least for Mr. Romney. For no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. It is just that. Is it possible that this year history can change?
NO!
Because other than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and at this point, I think that there is something that is at play here.
That people are still nervous about telling pollsters that they are not going to vote for the Dear Leader, President Obama. Regrettably, this is the fear of being called a racist. Even though one is anonymously answering a pollster's question, there is about five percent of any given state poll in which I do not believe the potential voters are answering honestly.
Some have referred to this as The Bradley Effect and it is in reference to the 1982 gubernatorial campaign between the Black Democrat mayor of Los Angeles and the Republican Attorney General, George Deukmejian.
In that election, poll after poll showed Mr. Bradley with a healthy lead over Mr. Deukmejian. And even on election day, exit polls seemed to show that Mr. Bradley would have been the first elected Black governor in California's history.
One thing happened.
A then new phenomenon called absentee voting was taken total advantage of by the Republican party. That year thousands if not millions of mailer were sent to Republican and Republican leaning voters asking them to register absentee and vote from the comfort and total privacy of their homes.
What happened is that Mr. Bradley barely won the majority of votes on election day and Mr. Deukmejian won a strong majority of the absentee votes and won the election by about 50,000 votes.
Yet why it is called the Bradley effect is that people were telling pollsters sure, they were going to vote for Mr. Bradley but some decided at the last minute to vote for Mr. Deukmejian. Or intended to all along but did not answer honestly for fear of being accused of raaaaacism.
Remember, there are five a's in racism to drive the point home!
Thus, I really believe that when all is said and done, Mr. Romney will win the following of the 10 battleground states currently leaning to the Dear Leader, President Obama (and the electoral votes)
Iowa 6
Florida 29
Colorado 9
Virginia 13
New Hampshire 4
Ohio 18
Nevada 6
And add the two states that are leaning to Mr. Romney:
Missouri 10
North Carolina 15
That, my friends, is 110 electoral votes.
And in the election of 2008, the Dear Leader, President Obama, had 365 electoral votes. Take away 110 electoral votes and we will be able to call him the former Dear Leader, former President Obama.
It is regrettable that in this election, and it is already one of the most charged in my lifetime, some people will not be honest with the pollsters. But they will be honest with themselves on election day. And that is why I think Mitt Romney is actually leading some of these battleground states. And that he will win enough to be the 45th president of the United States.
The complicated answer is probably.
The out there answer is hell yes!
At this link to Real Clear Politics, if you look over at the Battleground polls, the 12 states featured 10 of them show the Dear Leader, President Obama, in a lead of some kind. Only two of the twelve, Missouri (why it is considered a battleground state beats me) and North Carolina (slowly but surely moving out as a battleground state) are in Mr. Romney's camp.
So lets look at this state by state starting with the Dear Leader, President Obama. This will go from the smallest lead to the largest according to the RCP state polling average.
Iowa Obama +1.3%
Florida Obama +1.4%
Colorado Obama +2.7%
Virginia Obama +2.8%
New Hampshire Obama +3%
Ohio Obama +4.3%
Nevada Obama +5.3%
Wisconsin Obama +6%
Michigan Obama +6.3%
Pennsylvania Obama +7%
The only one the 10 states that at this point look out of reach for Mr Romney is Pennsylvania. But I would not call this the way it it will go down in Pennsylvania or any of the other seemingly Dear Leader, President Obama states.
The average lead of the 10 states is 4.1% and in most polling data, it is within the margin of error.
Now, look at the two Romney states that are still considered battleground states.
North Carolina Romney +1%
Missouri Romney +5.7%
The two Romney states show him ahead by an average of 3.4%. Also in the margin of error.
But, of the Dear Leader states, Colorado is slowly going away from him. The fact that the Dear Leader is barely ahead in Virginia should be cause for concern. Ditto New Hampshire. And then there is Ohio.
Ohio is the state that can and will determine the election. At least for Mr. Romney. For no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. It is just that. Is it possible that this year history can change?
NO!
Because other than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and at this point, I think that there is something that is at play here.
That people are still nervous about telling pollsters that they are not going to vote for the Dear Leader, President Obama. Regrettably, this is the fear of being called a racist. Even though one is anonymously answering a pollster's question, there is about five percent of any given state poll in which I do not believe the potential voters are answering honestly.
Some have referred to this as The Bradley Effect and it is in reference to the 1982 gubernatorial campaign between the Black Democrat mayor of Los Angeles and the Republican Attorney General, George Deukmejian.
In that election, poll after poll showed Mr. Bradley with a healthy lead over Mr. Deukmejian. And even on election day, exit polls seemed to show that Mr. Bradley would have been the first elected Black governor in California's history.
One thing happened.
A then new phenomenon called absentee voting was taken total advantage of by the Republican party. That year thousands if not millions of mailer were sent to Republican and Republican leaning voters asking them to register absentee and vote from the comfort and total privacy of their homes.
What happened is that Mr. Bradley barely won the majority of votes on election day and Mr. Deukmejian won a strong majority of the absentee votes and won the election by about 50,000 votes.
Yet why it is called the Bradley effect is that people were telling pollsters sure, they were going to vote for Mr. Bradley but some decided at the last minute to vote for Mr. Deukmejian. Or intended to all along but did not answer honestly for fear of being accused of raaaaacism.
Remember, there are five a's in racism to drive the point home!
Thus, I really believe that when all is said and done, Mr. Romney will win the following of the 10 battleground states currently leaning to the Dear Leader, President Obama (and the electoral votes)
Iowa 6
Florida 29
Colorado 9
Virginia 13
New Hampshire 4
Ohio 18
Nevada 6
And add the two states that are leaning to Mr. Romney:
Missouri 10
North Carolina 15
That, my friends, is 110 electoral votes.
And in the election of 2008, the Dear Leader, President Obama, had 365 electoral votes. Take away 110 electoral votes and we will be able to call him the former Dear Leader, former President Obama.
It is regrettable that in this election, and it is already one of the most charged in my lifetime, some people will not be honest with the pollsters. But they will be honest with themselves on election day. And that is why I think Mitt Romney is actually leading some of these battleground states. And that he will win enough to be the 45th president of the United States.
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