Random Thoughts Away From Politics

Before I ramble on about things other than politics, I will not make any predictions on the outcome of the Florida Republican primary. There is no trend in any polling and it is just kind of all over the place. All I can say is any Republican in Florida who has not made up their mind need to do so ASAP and vote. . .of course for the Mitt Man!
Now, on to some serious thoughts about other topics.
I do not know about you, but I am sorry to hear that the Hollywood writers are giving a pass and letting the Grannys, er Grammy Awards, go on. I am glad we did not have to see the functioning illiterates bouncing around the room during the Golden Globe Awards. I hope the writers say no to the Academy Awards and it is but a glorified press conference. My least favorite time of year is the Hollywood awards season. Regrettably, Mrs. rightviewfromtheleftcoast watches these mindless shows. I usually hide in my bunker doing what I am doing now.
Speaking of Hollywood, I am sorry about the death of actor Heath Ledger. The ghoulish tabloids are now trying to drag Mr. Ledger's name through the mud with no idea as to the actual cause of death. But, it is troubling that an industry like the entertainment industry attracts so many troubled people. Many enter with just wanting to be performers and yet end up on the wrong side of the tracks. They get so caught up in their celebrity, and somehow lose all inhibitions. I fear it is due to a lack of a moral center. Those that have one in such a dog-eat-dog industry are those that we rarely hear about. And, I for one, like it that way. As Laura Ingraham http://lauraingraham.com would say, Shut Up And Sing (or Act or Perform!).
Here in California, the famed Santa Anita Park horse race track is going through a disaster by following a new state regulation and installing a "fake dirt" track called Cushion Track. The disaster is that because the heavens have opened and we have more than doubled our rainfall for all last year, the track is not draining properly and there have been seven race days cancelled and more to come as the track tries to fix the problem. Well, if they had not fooled around with an already perfectly good drainage system, Santa Anita would not be in the mess they are in. Supposedly, the Cushion Track problem will be corrected sometime next week. I hope so.
There is now only about a month until the baseball exhibition season starts. HOORAY! It is the first sign that winter is on the downhill and spring is just around the corner. And, hope springs eternal for all baseball fans. Even Chicago Cubs fans! But, as I always do, I believe that the Los Angeles Dodgers will win the World Series. It has only been 20 years since they won the last one, so they are due.
Whatever happened to Rosie O'Donnell?
One thing to remember.
Even though this is the political season and we are all a little hot under the collar for our candidate and against the ones we do not like, we do it all peacefully.
In Kenya, there is a near civil war because there was a corrupt vote in the recent presidential election. SURPRISE! But, it was supposed to be one of the fairest elections in Kenya's history. The sad truth is that in most nations in the world that have some democracy, there is violence during the election season. Only Western Europe, and North America usually escapes this wrath. Democracy is a messy business in much of the rest of the world.
Does it comfort you to see that Egypt has a wall along it border with Gaza and yet the wall was tunnelled and ripped apart by thousands of frustrated "Palestinians"? How come there is not the angst about that wall while Israel is condemned for its wall? Or how about those of us in the United States that want a wall on our porous southern border?
Do you find Jay Leno funnier without his writers? I do. He don't need no stinkin' writers!
Anyhow, that is all the rambling I have for now.
Remember, Floridian Republicans, get out and vote tomorrow for the Mitt Man!

Is This The Man Republicans Really Want To Be Their Presidential Nominee?

Yes, I know, another post against Sen. John "F--- You" McCain. I know, you are moaning, "Ugh! Can't this blogger say something positive about who he supports?" or "Why does he have it in for Sen. "F--- You" McCain?"
Well, it is because I want to win, not ugly but with conservative, Republican ideas intact.
The following link http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/news/presidential_briefing/?p=16 may help you realize that I believe that Sen. "F--- You" McCain is a disaster for the Republican party to consider their best face forward in the upcoming presidential election campaign. I urge you to read it and judge for yourself.
After you read it, remember, Sen "F--- You" McCain will either face a battle axe and her husband, Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-NY) and her Rottweiler of a husband, former president Bill Clinton. And, they will stoop to the lowest level to win. Ask Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill). Oh, and while he is a fresh, young face for the Democrats, he too can be rather ruthless if he is the Democrat nominee.
We need to have a candidate that can withstand the barrage the Democrat candidate can throw at them. Somehow, after reading the piece in the Boston Herald, I really do not think that candidate is Sen. John "F--- You" McCain.

Straight Mealy-Mouth Talk

In this final weekend before the fateful Florida Republican primary, Sen. John "F--- You" McCain is continuing to lie about former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney calling for a timetable to withdrawal American troops from Iraq.
And, of course Sen. "F--- You" McCain is even doing some, oh flip-flopping on the "comprehensive immigration reform" bill-scam. Now, the erstwhile senator from Arizona has "Heard the American people" and is for border enforcement first, then granting amnesty to 12 to 20 million illegal aliens. Oh yes, and we can have our G-- D--- fence too!
But, that is not all he is flip-flopping on.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain is now all in favor of making President Bush's tax cuts permanent. Oh, he does not want to talk about his votes against them. One of only two Republicans to vote no. But when "pressed" to defend his vote, he says that it is because they were not offset by budget cuts. That would be a good, and accurate answer. Except that what Sen. "F--- You" McCain had said is that he could not vote for tax cuts that "favored the richest Americans". Why, I thought I heard former North Carolina senator John Edwards. But, no it was Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
While it has been fun for the senator to stick it to fellow Republicans over the last seven years, always pontificating as if he is the oracle of truth and we just better sit down, shut up and listen, Sen. "F--- You" McCain is coming to a realization as the primary election season gets hot. He has to attract. . .REPUBLICANS! And, he can not run on a record that he currently has.
Oh, the current 2006 American Conservative Union rating for Sen. "F--- You" McCain is 65 out of 100.
While on the campaign trail, pretending to be the defense secretary, he touts on how he was the only one who advocated the current surge of United States troops in the Iraq theatre in the War Against Islamofacsist Terror. He goes way out of his way to berate former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Again, all but using the Democrat talking points. Somehow, I do not think most Republicans like the Rumsfeld bashing. Yes, he made mistakes, but if Sen. "F--- You" McCain was not so full of himself, he could just tout that he was one who thought that there should have been more troops sent to Iraq, period. But, no, he has to get a dig in on a fellow Republican.
There is an old Ronald Reagan quote that Sen. "F--- You" McCain has not heard recently. That is this, often called the eleventh commandment:
Thou shalt speak no ill of a fellow Republican.
It seems that it is all Sen. "F--- You" McCain can do.
It is not enough to bash fellow Republicans, but to out and out lie and have your surrogates do it as well is not going to gain any support, no matter how many late endorsements Sen. "F--- You" McCain gets.
Sen. John "F--- You" McCain likes to tout his "straight talk" but lately, it has been nothing more than mealy-mouthed flip-flopping. And, unlike Mitt Romney who has admitted to changing his mind, Sen. "F--- You" McCain hopes Republican voters never know that he is "changing his mind".

A Fact About The 82% Rating

Since it appears that Sen. John "F--- You" McCain is desperate enough to outright lie about Mitt Romney calling for a timetable to withdraw American troops from Iraq, I thought I would share some facts about that much-touted American Conservative Union 82% lifetime rating.
Stanley Kurtz on The Corner at National Review Online http://corner.nationalreview.com asked about Sen. "F--- You" McCain's ACU 82% lifetime rating during the Bush 43 years.
Ramesh Ponnuru, an unabashed Sen. "F--- You" McCain supporter gave the breakdown and it is as follows
2000 81%
2001 68%
2002 78%
2003 80%
2004 72%
2005 80%
2006 65%
Now, I averaged it out two ways. Total from 2000-06 and it shows an ACU average of 75%. Take a total from 2001, when President Bush took office to 2006. The ACU average is 74%.
So, as suspected, it is down. And if one takes the 2006 average, Sen. "F--- You" McCain is barely a center-right Republican.
One of the problems with the Sen. "F--- You" McCain supporters touting this is the fact that how these groups on both sides of the political spectrum determine the rating. Usually it is on a few high intensity issue votes. Thus even a 100 percenter may not necessarily be a 100 percenter.
It is somewhat complicated, but it is a weak defense of a candidate that has to constantly reassure conservatives that make the base of the Republican party believe he is really one of them.
On many an issue, he has gone so out of his way to be critical of Republicans that it just fuels the suspicions that while maybe not a closet liberal, Sen. "F--- You" McCain can not in good conscience run around and say he is a loyal and conservative Republican.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain's Arizona colleague in the senate, John Kyl, scored a 100 rating in 2006 and has an overall ACU rating of of 97%. And, Sen. Kyl has four less years in congress.
It does not bring comfort to conservatives, activists and loyal Republicans that Sen. McCain has to resort to using group ratings to bolster his conservative bonafides. If he sound like and acted like one, maybe he would be the front runner at this point and the rest of the field would be also-rans.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain's supporter's need to come up with a better reason than his 82% lifetime ACU rating to justify the case that Sen. "F--- You" McCain is a conservative in the Ronald Reagan tradition.

Congrats To Obama

Congratulations have to go out to Illinois senator Barack Obama for winning the South Carolina Democrat primary handily, dispatching Sen. Hillbill Clinton (D-NY) and the potted plant, former North Carolina senator John Edwards.
Sen. Obama got 54% of the vote and Sen. Clinton got only 27% and the potted plant, er Mr. Edwards got a rip-roaring 18% http://drudgereport.com, http://FoxNews.com.
This is a good sign.
It shows that it is possible that the Democrats are tiring of the slashing Hillbill roadshow that is merciless against anyone standing in thier way back to the White House.
It gives Sen. Obama a clear path of momentum going into the Super Duper Tuesday states on February 5.
I have been writing for months and even predicted that Sen. Obama would end up the Democrat party nominee for president. The reason is becoming clear. Sen. Obama offers change, not in any detail, but in a positive way. Sen Clinton reminds many voters on both sides why many Americans disliked the Clinton's in the first place.
All I can say is GO OBAMA!

Sen. "F--- You" McCain-A Liar

Now I write this with some pain because I do not dislike Sen. John "F--- You" McCain. I think that he is a real patriot and is a hero because of his service to this nation. Both in and out of navy uniform.
But, when Sen. "F--- You" McCain out and out lies about a Republican opponent for the presidential nomination, he needs to be called on it and forced to tell the truth.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain claims that the former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, wanted a timeline to begin to pull troops out of Iraq.
The fact is that Mr. Romney said no such thing and there is a lot of proof that he did not. And, the Romney campaign http://mittromney.com http: //corner.nationalreview.comhas put out e-mails showing that Sen. "F--- You" McCain did in fact propose that the Iraqi government have to meet "benchmarks". Which is the same position as, Mr. Romney and the commander-in-chief, President Bush.
The fact is that Sen. "F--- You" McCain is lying.
And, the lie will not stick because Mr. Romney said no such thing.
It is a cynical and desperate attempt to deflect attention to the fact that Sen. "F--- You" McCain is slipping in the polls in the run up to the Florida Republican primary on Tuesday. The fact that Sen. "F--- You" McCain admits, but lies that he did not, he does not know much about economics. The fact that Sen. "F--- You" McCain lies about wanting border enforcement while on the debate floor with his Republican opponents, but then tells Sean Hannity on Fox News Channel that his position and support for "comprehensive immigration reform" still stands.
I know that Sen. McCain is desperate, but this is a real war hero. He should know better and be a better man than what he is becoming.
It is one thing to exaggerate an opponent's record to benefit one's self, but to lie and stand by the lie and allow surrogates to perpetuate that lie is disgusting.
But, it has become the nature of Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
Even though Sen. "F--- You" McCain is racking up some big Florida endorsements, this lie will jettison that support. And a better man, Mitt Romney, will win Florida.

The Debate Tonight. . .zzzzzzzzz

In an utterly boring Republican presidential debate tonight, Mitt Romney hit the home run that he has needed to assure the conservative, Republican base why he is the best one to unify the old Reagan coalition and be the GOP nominee for president.
The MSNBC debate was "moderated" by Tim Russet and Brian Williams. One would think that they would know how to ask questions that ramp up Republicans, but, oh I forgot. It was Tim Russert and Brian Williams!
By and large all the candidates held their own. Ron Paul needs to join Democrat presidential drop-out Dennis Kucinich on the mothership and leave, but he will not. Too bad.
But the night belonged to Mr. Romney.
He showed that he would be the right candidate in times of economic distress to lead the nation. His answer concerning the so-called stimulus plan was correct. Don't just hand out a rebate check-lower taxes!
It is just the fact that Mr. Romney is reassuring and really talks about the best that America is and that the best days are ahead. Sounds a lot like another Republican, Ronald Reagan.
And, once again, Sen. John "F--- You" McCain shows why REPUBLICANS DO NOT like him!
Lecturing us on global warming from the left-wing, Al Gore perspective is not going to win a lot of Republican votes. And yes, we know. You do not like former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. But, again, that does not bode well for Republicans. Yes, he made mistakes, but Mr. Rumsfeld was proactive and tried. It is very easy from the peanut gallery to pillory Mr. Rumsfeld. But, Sen. "F--- You" McCain, we should leave that to Democrats.
But, I want to be positive to the erstwhile Solon. He seemed a little less wound tight. A little more down to earth. And, maybe that will help among some people.
Mayor Rudy, I am afraid to say, did no better than an adequate job. But, I believe that he may be in second place in Florida come Tuesday evening.
The former Arkansas governor, the Rev. Mike Huckabee is comic relief. And that is all. He is a lightweight-in all ways!
And, I already said enough about Ron Paul.
This debate showed why I have been on the Romney bandwagon from the beginning. If Fred Thompson ran like Mr. Romney, he would be the Republican front runner. Instead, he is in Tennessee.
Mr. Romney was in command, statesmanlike and knew what he was talking about. And, once again he handled another moronic question about his Mormon faith deftly.
I think that tonight if many watched, they saw the Republican presidential nominee, and that is Mitt Romney. And Tuesday night, the Republican voters of Florida will give Mr. Romney another gold medal. And 57 delegates.

Why Other GOPers Dislike Romney

This is a disturbing piece http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/01/why_they_hate_mitt_romney.ht as to fellow Republican animus towards the former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
What it sounds like is that these Republicans have Democrat envy. Disliking a candidate because he happens to be blessed by Almighty God with good looks, the ability to make money and have the money to run in the election for president.
Those of us that support Mr. Romney see him as an embodiment of the American Dream.
And there is nothing wrong with that whatsoever.
He is the new Reagan in the sense that he is an outsider that is running as such and that rankles the establishment. They know that if Mr. Romney is successful in attaining the nomination, they will be on notice that there will be a new sheriff in town. Sorry Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
We need to be grown ups and not be jealous and envious of success. That is what Mitt Romney is, a success story and a hope for the Republican party.

Why Mike Likes McCain

Since radio talker Michael Medved http://michaelmedved.com came out of the John "F--- You" McCain closet, the irrationality of his pro-McCain comments come down to one issue. So-called "comprehensive immigration reform". Period.
Mr. Medved was a lonely voice in conservative talk radio last year as the one supporter of the "comprehensive immigration reform" bill-scam. Even after defeat, he was rather bitter.
Consider that he sung the praises of former Arkansas governor, the Rev. Mike Huckabee, until he became an illegal immigration hawk. Once it also became clear that the Rev. Mike was not going to get beyond his evangelical Christian voting bloc, Mr. Medved came out for Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
No coincidence that it is Sen. "F--- You" McCain is the Republican champion of amnesty, under many names but still amnesty. Mr. Medved was for it.
Mr. Medved went on to say based on the South Carolina primary results that talk radio did not matter. Remember, Sen "F--- You" McCain won only 32% of the South Carolina vote. And, independents were still able to vote in that primary. Not a huge endorsement of the senator's dismal position on illegal immigration.
It is a major reason that Sen. McCain will have a hard time from here on out trying to get conservative Republican voters. And the primaries are becoming Republican only affairs. As they should be.
Mr. Medved says that all of us who do not like the position of Sen. "F--- You" McCain on this issue need to overlook it. And, that Sen "F--- You" McCain has changed wanting border enforcement first. Of course what Mr. Medved fails to mention is that Sen. "F--- You" McCain said that we could have our G-- D--- fence if we want it. Meaning, he has not really changed. Just giving in on a minor point in his mind.
Because Mr. Medved makes it either a mass deportation or assimilation issue, the middle way is where there is employer fines and making the so-called "jobs Americans won't do" undesirable for illegals to come here to get in the first place. That is when there would be self-deportation. Illegals would simply go back from where they came. The reason to be here would not exist.
There is also the fallacy that if we grant amnesty, all these illegals will become Republicans. I find that impossible as long as there is a Democrat party that promises all of the goodies for these people.
Here is for Michael.
I will vote for Sen. "F--- You" McCain if he is the nominee, but will Mr. Medved be as positive if Sen. "F--- You" McCain is not the Republican nominee? We shall see.

Romney Gets A Fred Endoreser

Today, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney got an important senate endorsement from a former Fred Thompson supporter http://thehill.com.
Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss) threw his support to Mr. Romney and it is a big deal because this is the first of Mr. Thompson's congressional supporters to back another candidate.
Another reason it is a big deal is because Sen. Cochran is from the south and that is going to be Romney Country if he is the Republican nominee.
It may be the beginning of the FredHeads flocking to the Romney campaign. We will see if that is the case in Florida on Tuesday.

Fred Drops Out

It is too bad that former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson dropped his bid for the presidency today http://FoxNews.com or http://realclearpolitics.com.
Although I am solidly in the Romney camp, there is no doubt that Mr. Thompson laid out the conservative case better than anyone, including Mr. Romney, in the campaign for the Republican nomination.
But, he mostly did that when he felt like it.
And you need to be focused on wanting this job more than anything else. And Mr. Thompson was not focused and that is why he is a former candidate.
It is interesting to note that Mr. Thompson did not endorse anyone in his short press release. He may do so later this week. The conventional wisdom is that Mr. Thompson will support Arizona senator John "F--- You" McCain. But I think that conventional wisdom should be thrown out the window.
The fact is that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Mr. Thompson would make a good fit.
Mr. Romney, if he is the nominee, will need someone like Mr. Thompson. Mt. Thompson has spent just enough time in Washington to cultivate some Washington people. But, he has been out of Washington long enough to be seen as an "outsider".
Somehow, I just do not see how Mr. Thompson would help Sen. "F--- You" McCain except with the crotchety voters. And there are not as many as one would think.
Mr. Thompson would also help former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and even former Arkansas governor, the Rev. Mike Huckabee as they do not have the kind of contacts that Mr. Thompson would be able to open doors to.
And, I think that the Thompson voters are now going to take a real look at Mr. Romney. These are not people who will jump for Sen. "F--- You" McCain. They will look at the most viable conservative in the race, and that is Mr. Romney.
Thus, the race just got a little more interesting and we will see how Mr. Thompson dropping out will pan out.

A Tragic 35th Anniversary

Today is the 35th anniversary of the most tragic decision from the United States supreme court in most of our lifetimes-the Roe v Wade decision that "legalized" abortion throughout the United States.
Of course, President Bush did not attend the Right To Life march to the supreme court. But he did address the crowd by audio hook up.
And, I will give credit to the former Arkansas governor, the Rev. Mike Huckabee as he spoke to the Georgia Right To Life group today.
As of today, approximately 45 to 47 million potential Americans have been aborted.
I wonder if a woman aborted the next Einstein. Or maybe a scientist who could have found a cure for cancer. Maybe a diplomat that could have negotiated a lasting peace in the Middle East. Or in an inner-city, gang-infested neighborhood here in the United States.
We will never know. But, there is positive news on this front.
According to an article in today's Los Angeles Times http://latimes.com, young people are the next generation on the front lines of ending abortion on demand.
Also, according to a study by the Guttmacher institute, the number of abortions are down to the lowest numbers since 1976.
But, there are still over one million unfettered abortions in the United States. And that is about one million too many.
A sidebar. In an article in National Review http://nationalreview.com by Paul Kengor, it chronicles how former president Ronald Reagan came to such a strong pro-life view. And, as noted here many times, it is the direct result of legislation he signed in 1967 that liberalized California's abortion laws. In "Reagan's Darkest Hour", Mr. Kengor also reminds us that Mr. Reagan edited a book and wrote extensively on abortion, right before the 1984 presidential election. And, that was to the chagrin of many more moderate advisers.
Let us hope that this abomination ends soon. And pray that a future supreme court will recognize the error of their ways and overturn Roe v Wade.

Romney On The Move

It appears that the big win for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in Nevada is paying off better than the narrow win in South Carolina by Sen. John "F--- You" McCain judging by the latest poll by Rasmussen Reports http://rasmussenreports.com.
That poll shows Mr. Romney with 25% of the vote followed by Sen. "F--- You" McCain at 20%. Now, I know that other polls show other things, one has Sen. "F--- You" McCain ahead by five and even Mayor Rudy ahead by one.
But, Rasmussen is usually the one most accurate on either side.
Bad news for both Sen. "F--- You" McCain and the former Arkansas governor, the Rev. Mike Huckabee. The Rev. Mike is not even in the top three as Mayor Rudy is essentially tied with Sen. "F--- You" McCain coming in at 19%.
The fact is that Mr. Romney has picked up seven points and the Rev. Mike has lost seven in the latest survey.
Now, after the New Hampshire fiasco, we should not become overly dependent on polls. But, if this is a sign, look for other polls to bear this out.
The conservative Republicans are quickly coming to the realization that with former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson close to dropping his bid, they need to find their candidate. Clearly, there are only two, Mayor Rudy and Mr. Romney. And, in reality there is only one in Mr. Romney who has made inroads with the three stools of the conservative, Republican majority.
A win by Mr. Romney and anything less than second for Sen. "F--- You" McCain pretty much ends his attempt at the nomination. The guerrilla warfare he has been using, independent and Democrat voters, gets harder as the upcoming primaries and caucuses become Republican-only affairs.
So many have and continue to write Mr. Romney off, yet he has the most votes of any Republican candidate and the most delegates.
The DDBMSM thinks that third place in delegates, where Sen. "F--- You" McCain is, makes him the front runner. That should tell you that the DDBMSM is really pushing the McCain candidacy on us.
But, I think that this will be the beginning and more polls will show the same thing and Mitt Romney will slay the McCain dragon and be on the fast track towards the nomination. Not because he will get it in the primary/caucus season but because he will be entering St. Paul in September with the most delegates. And that is going to be where Mr. Romney becomes the nominee. And that will make this election year very exciting.

DDBMSM Ignores Nevada Republican Results

For some inexplicable reason, the Dinosaur, Drive-By, Mainstream Media all but ignored the fact that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had a commanding victory in yesterday's Nevada Republican caucus. I suppose a win in the South Carolina Republican primary by Sen. John "F--- You" McCain is more on the radar of the DDBMSM, but I will lay out the case that Nevada was much more important than South Carolina.
Firstly, it is safe to say that Nevada has become a "battleground" state, marginally Republican but trending Democrat. Look at the presidential results in 2000 and 2004 in Nevada. President Bush has done no better than 50% in each election while former Vice-President Al Gore got 46% in 2000 and Sen. John Kerry got 48% in 2004. Clearly, the trend is leaning towards the Democrats.
In South Carolina, it is a very safe, Republican state. President Bush won in 2000 and 2004 with 57% and 58% of the vote, respecivly. Thus, even in this election year South Carolina should be a very safe Republican state.
While Sen. "F--- You" McCain spent a lot of time and effort to win a state that will be hospitable territory should he be the Republican presidential nominee, he ignored a state that he will need to win if he is to keep the red states in line this election.
Mr. Romney took a calculated risk in giving up spending more time in South Carolina and finished fourth behind former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson. But, the strategy of going to Nevada and making the largest win of the campaign season in both political parties may prove to be much more strategic in keeping a Democrat-trending state in the Republican column.
Sometimes in a death march of an election season that this has become, candidates have to play on the fly and look at areas that will be to that candidate's advantage. While the DDBMSM likes to play up South Carolina as a pretty accurate barometer of who the Republican presidential nominee will be, this year may prove that barometer wrong.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain spent a lot of time to get 32% of the vote in a primary in a state that is the Republican heartland. By spending no time in Nevada, he ceded the turf to Mr. Romney and he took the opening and cruised to victory with 51% of the caucus vote. And, it is in a state that will be a battleground for both parties, like it or not.
Also, it is very important to note that Nevada had more delegates at stake than in South Carolina. Thus, with Mr. Romney's crushing win, he took the lion's share of delegates and more momentum among Republican voters and that is important because as the death march primary season continues on to Super Duper Tuesday, February 5, the primaries/caucuses become closed to Democrats and Republicans, no independents. That means that getting delegates is even more important than winning any given state. And there, Mr. Romney has shown that he has a huge advantage over Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
Thus, in the grand scheme of things, Mr. Romney's Nevada caucus victory may in the end prove to be more important than Sen. "F--- You" McCain's win in South Carolina. And the results in November may prove that even more.

Good News For Romney And McCain

Today, voters in Nevada and South Carolina went to the polls and continued to put the Republican presidential nomination in different directions. But the spinmeisters will say that Sen. John "F--- You" McCain's win in South Carolina is a bigger deal than former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's win in the Nevada caucus. The fact is both are a big deal and there is still no Republican presidential front runner. Period.
Here is a very important point. Mr. Romney took 51% of the Nevada caucus vote http://lvrj.com, a huge win by any one's objective calculation. Sen. "F--- You" McCain won only 33% of the South Carolina primary votes http://thestate.com.
Mr. Romney has been the candidate that has a proven record of bringing the three forces of modern American Republican conservatism together. The Michigan results showed that.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain was able to win in a state that has the largest concentration of soldiers and veterans. Those voters were able to offset an amazingly strong showing by the former Arkansas governor, the Rev. Mike Huckabee. The Rev. Mike, of course, took the lion's share of evangelical Christian voters. But, the Rev. Mike can not do too much better outside of that group. But, the Rev. Mike got a majority of votes from those who said that illegal immigration was their top issue.
And, because this primary/caucus season delegates matter, not necessarily wins, Mr. Romney still leads in Republican delegates. According to CNN http://cnn.com, Mr. Romney has 66 delegates compared to Sen. "F--- You" McCain with only 38%.
But, the win by Sen. "F--- You" McCain has the DDBMSM in a twitter in thought that a narrow win means he has this all but wrapped up. In fact, look for the gloves to come off and Sen. McCain to get a good beating at the hands of his opponents, and the Rev. Mike showed that he may lead the way, to be tag-teamed with Mr. Romney.
And, another thought is that Mr. Romney has shown he could win in three distinct areas of the nation. The rust-belt Midwest in Michigan. The Plains in Wyoming. And the bustling west in Nevada, which gave him the largest margin of victory.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain proved only that he could win in New Hampshire on the backs of independents and Democrats and in South Carolina on the backs of soldiers and veterans. And, they were not exactly blowout wins, one by five percent the latest by three percent.
The bad news is that former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson could do no better than a distant third in South Carolina and that nut bag congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) pulled into second place in Nevada.
But, both should go on.
All the big contenders need to go on and see what happens in Florida. If former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani has the win, he maybe the smartest man in the room by letting the others beat each other up in these early states. Even then, he will not suddenly become the Republican front runner.
That will not be decided, if then, on Super Duper Tuesday, February 5th.
My thought is that this is still on the road to be settled in St. Paul, Minnesota at the Republican National Convention.
Tonight was a good night for Mitt Romney and John "F--- You" McCain and shows one thing. They are the ones to beat with the Rev. Mike a close third for the Republican presidential nomination.

This Is How To Slap An Annoying Reporter

Many say that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is kind of sort of a wooden candidate who says what people want to hear.
Well, this little exchange http://cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/01/17/politics/fromtheroad/ent, should put that to rest.
It is not enough that the reporter, AP's Glenn Johnson, is interupting, but not letting Mr. Romney answer his insipid questions.
Watch the whole thing.
It is a contrast to the inside-the-beltway style campaign of Sen. John "F--- You" McCain.
When you have been in Washington for 20 plus years and claim you are the only one who can change things, when the only reason you changed was your own little brush with scandal, it will only be cannon-fodder for the Democrat candidate come whoever is nominated.
Another good reason that Mr. Romney makes sense to be the Republican candidate for president. He can not be bought.

Who Will Show Up On Tuesday?

Today on the Laura Ingraham radio show http://lauraingraham.com, Laura made an excellent observation concerning this Tuesday being the 35th anniversary of the worst decision the United States supreme court ever made. Roe v Wade. That is the dreadful decision that "legalized" abortion in the United States and took it away from the states to regulate this so-called "right".
What Miss Ingraham asked is what Republican presidential candidate would attend the Right to Life march in person?
I am afraid that none will, but all who claim to be pro-life and anti-abortion should, as should President Bush.
Not even the Great Man himself, former President Ronald Reagan, attended a march in person.
But I will take Miss Ingraham's question and further it by saying here and now that Sen. John "F--- You" McCain, former Arkansas governor, the Rev. Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Sen. Fred Thompson and President Bush should attend and all should speak.
Yes, the DDBMSM will gasp in horror to see all the major Republican candidates and the sitting Republican president at the seminal event commemorating the 40 million potential Americans aborted since this hideous decision was passed down.
But, that is the point. They should make the DDBMSM gasp and take note that the Republican party is taking the position that Roe v Wade should be overturned. And at the very least abortion laws should be handled by the states and their elected legislators.
Because the supreme court divined a "right to privacy" and federalized abortion laws, it makes having to pursue a constitutional amendment necessary. A future court could come to the same hair-brained conclusion as that court did and re-legalize abortion across the United States, with no regard for the right of states.
It is interesting that just today a report came out that said abortions are at the lowest since 1976.
But even then it is still one too many.
This is an issue on which I think the Republicans need to be cattle-prodded into serious action. Not just platitudes and promises of appointing conservative judges and a conservative supreme court justice or two.
Oh, I did not include one Republican candidate for president. Former New York City mayor, Rudy Giuliani, is "pro-choice" and I think that he should show up, speak to the crowd to assure that while he maintains his position, he would appoint the kind of judges and or justices that would look at overturning Roe v Wade. It is threading the needle, but if you want to appoint conservative judges and justices, one of the cases they will hear, eventually, will be a direct challenge to Roe v Wade. And, Mayor Rudy may be in a strange but true kind of way the best friend the pro-life community has.
But I agree with Miss Ingraham's question. But, lets see if any do show up and more so, who would have the guts to speak to the crowd.

Romney The Winner. . .FINALLY!

This is a great way to start my 500th post saying the words that Mitt Romney is a winner. . .finally!
And, this is a total, convincing win.
Mr. Romney has 39% of the vote and coming in second was Sen. John "F--- You" McCain at 30% and the Rev. Mike Huckabee bringing up the far rear with 16%. And, Mr. Romney won a wide cross section of voters except Democrats who voted in the Republican primary.
And one thing that can no longer be denied. Mr. Romney is winning the Republican voters. And, as the primaries and or caucuses become more closed to non-Republicans, his numbers will improve. And, both Sen. "F--- You" McCain and the Rev. Mike's numbers are getting weaker.
The real problem lies with Sen. "F--- You" McCain. All the polling data shows that he is not getting the Republican vote. Unless he can do an extreme makeover, the balance of the primary/caucus campaign is going to get a little bleak for Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
But, the one constant about this campaign is that there is no constant. No one can figure this out on the Republican side.
But, this was a big and impressive win for Mr. Romney. Did he tailor-make the message for Michigan voters? Yes. And, that is important because it shows a campaign's ability to make the message fit a certain area. And, it shows that there is some potential for the Republicans to keep Michigan in play in the general election. That is with the right candidate.
There is no doubt that if some one else wins South Carolina this Saturday for the Republicans, say Fred Thompson, it keeps the potential for a brokered convention in play.
And, it maybe on that track anyway.
But, tonight, we celebrate a triumphant win for Mitt Romney and now on to South Carolina!

Rush On Fire Today!

Due to illness, the flu, I am home today and listening to Rush Limbaugh http://rushlimbaugh.com and he is firing on all cylinders today on both the Democrats and Republicans.
I urge you to listen. Find a radio station on his website or find a station that replays the show so that you can listen.
Some highlights:
The Clintons are playing the race card and since the Democrats have the perfect storm, a woman, a black and a class-warfare huckster, er thats Edwards, the Drive-By media does not know what to do.
On the GOP side, his angst that independents and Democrats may decide the Republican nominee. Also how too many Republicans are trying to end the Reagan era. A beautiful analysis of what happened to Gov. Arnold here in California and the serious risk of a McCain and or Huckabee nomination could do to the Republican party nationwide.
I have to say, this is why Rush is the most listened to radio talk show host in the United States.

Why Early Pontificating Is Pointless

Yes, I know. It is a shock that I, who does all kinds of pontificating would say that at some point there is something that makes it almost pointless.
I submit that for all of what we see in the blogs and on radio, television, websites, way too many pollsters, at some point we have to let things play out.
Case in point.
Most of those who would call themselves conservatives and definitely Republicans had been saying for the better part of a year now that it was a lock that Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-NY) would be the Democrat nominee for president. And same people were ready to coronate former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani as the Republican candidate.
A funny thing has happened this election season.
By golly, people actually voted.
And for the Democrats, there was a surprise.
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) won in Iowa, barely lost in New Hampshire and will quite possibly win a caucus in Nevada this Saturday and a primary in South Carolina the following Saturday.
So much for all our pontification. Although I have said I think Sen. Obama will be the eventual Democrat nominee, we still need to let people vote.
Same for the GOP.
Out of nowhere, Mr. Giuliani changes tactics and decides not to seriously contest any early state. Thus, the GOP divisions are plain as day. The Rev. Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in Wyoming, Sen. John "F--- You" McCain in New Hampshire and we have to wait to see on Tuesday in Michigan and Saturday in South Carolina.
The point is that there are still people who, in trying to boost the candidate that they are for, still are going to say "If candidate A does not win in B, it is all over". Or, "This candidate polls the worst in the November election against that candidate".
Michael Medved http://michaelmedved.com is doing this in trying to boost his candidate, Sen. "F--- You" McCain. He cites polling data that shows Mr. Romney the worst candidate from the GOP against some Democrat rivals. Of course, this is in January and the election is in November.
Hugh Hewitt http://hughhewitt.com has done a lot to back the candidacy of Mr. Romney, looking for any positives.
But, at the end of the day, it is still up to us, the voters, to make our decisions.
My vote is in no way influenced by polls and the like. I have taken the time to look at all the candidates in the GOP field, since I am a Republican after all, and that is how I have come to the conclusion that Mitt Romney would be the best candidate. And, although not a Democrat, I have looked at there candidates and come to conclude that if I was a Democrat and wanted to win in November, I would vote for Barack Obama.
Now, here is something no one asks.
Do you want a different candidate from your party to run for president?
There is a way to throw a monkey wrench into all of this.
But, back to point.
Because I back Mr. Romney, I hope that I try to educate and inform rather than just bluster. I think that most analysts are lazy. That is why they wanted the Hilary-Rudy contest. Or the Hilary-McCain match up.
That is why certain wins or even second places are dismissed and attempting to influence an already tired electorate to just give in for the least objectionable candidate.
One thing that I have been saying and I think will bear out in all of this is that the American people want someone new on both sides. No more Bush and Clinton. Hence, for the Democrats it is Sen. Obama and to an extent for the Republicans, it is among two, the Rev. Mike and Mr. Romney.
Some pontificators have not caught up on that one yet because then they would have to work and find out why.
And that is the point. We who want to inform and to a lesser effect influence people need to not be lazy. We need to see that there are real trends out there, not just what we want. We need to try to be objective in that aspect of our pontificating and I think that we will move from being seen as nothing but shills and as people really trying to figure things out.

Republican Debate Analysis

Tonight the winner is . . .FRED!
WOW! Ol' Fred finally showed up and took no prisoners. This is what many of us have been waiting for. And this is from a Romney supporter.
I think that Fred finally felt comfortable. He is among southerners, his people so to speak. And it showed. Mr. Thompson had command of facts, was folksy and slapped the Rev. Mike around that by the end of the debate I think the good reverend could not wait to get out of the building.
I do not think that it is too late for Mr. Thompson. This probably will add a lot of percent in polling and the numbers will shoot up in South Carolina. I think this is the beginning of a series of wins for Mr. Thompson in the south that should end the candidacy of the Rev. Mike.
Now, my man Mitt did well, but did not have a lot of face time. But he, like Mr. Thompson, had control of the facts and made certain to add a little levity with every sane Republicans favorite punching bag, Herr Ron Paul. OOPS! Did I refer to him as Herr Ron?!
Rudy has to come up with some new material. As does Sen. John "F--- You" McCain. And, someone needs to call him out on the lies he his spewing on his "comprehensive immigration reform" bill-scam. If I hear the sob-story one more time about the soldier's wife maybe getting deported, I will follow him to the gates of hell!
And that leaves the Rev. Mike. Come on evangelicals, stop supporting this guy! I think the more you watch him, the more that you realize that he really never thought he would get this far. When Chris Wallace asked him about raising taxes as governor of Arkansas, he said that he raised hope. And the pockets of the good people of Arkansas! The Rev. Mike needs to give straight answers to questions. If he raised taxes, say why and as they say in Las Vegas, let it ride.
Oh, and we had a return of Herr Ron Paul to the stage. Can anyone say "Cuckoo! Cuckoo?" And Duncan Hunter is out of the debates to this racist, conspiracy theorist?
As usual, the Fox News Channel team came through with great questions. However, they should have asked Herr Ron about those rantings in his newsletter. Oh, thats right. He sold it to someone else, but they kept his name. Please! We get more "straight talk" from Sen. "F--- You" McCain!
This debate raises the chances that Fred Thompson will "come out of nowhere" to win South Carolina and add himself as the fifth contender and keep this going on to the convention in St. Paul, Minnesota.

JUST SAY NO!

I have one thing to ask those of you who worry that a Sen. John "F--- You" McCain coronation is being forced on us by the DDBMSM and some "conservative" pundits and talk show hosts.
JUST SAY NO!
It is time for those of us, many coming of age in the age of the great man, Ronald Reagan, to stop the insanity now.
We are conservatives. We have seen the success of the Republican party since Mr. Reagan wrested control from the moderates and liberals in the 1980s. How do you think that we eventually gained congressional control and enjoyed it for 12 years? Not on the blood, sweat and tears of Sen. "F--- You" McCain. It was because people got tired of being taken for granted.
Just remember the last time a moderate was forced on us.
Remember 1996? We got Bob Dole. A great patriot but one of those who went to Washington as a conservative and became part of the elite that got into "process" and "compromise". So, Mr. Dole won the Republican nomination and ran one of the worst campaigns in modern Republican history. Only because of the strong dislike of then President Clinton did Mr. Dole manage to get 40% of the national vote. And only win 16 states.
We were told then that only Sen. Dole could mount a serious challenge to President Clinton. Some serious challenge.
And here we go again. And, on a lot less evidence that Sen. "F--- You" McCain really could win. This is all based on one win in New Hampshire. Nothing more. And we are told that Mitt Romney should just get out now. So, his Iowa-New Hampshire strategy did not work. He is a smart man. He can retool the approach. There is no reason he should leave. Nor should Fred Thompson. He has a chance to win in South Carolina. Oh, but the Rev. Mike is leading big time there in the polls. Well, as Sen Barack Obama how accurate polls are. Or Sen. Hilary Clinton.
We do not elect based on polls. If that was the case, there would have been some different presidents.
Why there would have been no President Bush had he taken the advice of the DDBMSM. He won Iowa and lost very badly to Sen. "F--- You" McCain in New Hampshire and badly in Michigan. But, in a much less fractured primary season, then Gov. Bush made an all out effort in South Carolina and won. And then won in Virginia. It was there that Sen. "F--- You" McCain went up against conservative Christians. But, to no avail. Mr. Bush went on to win, and win, and win. Sen. "F--- You" McCain got more and more bitter.
Here is the thing, fellow conservative Republicans, we need to stop with this "That candidate is not conservative enough." or "This candidate is not conservative enough". We need to rally around one of the conservatives left. I would encourage all to back Mitt Romney.
Mr. Romney needs cash and support. He can win Michigan, and if not, make sure that he is competitive all the way to Super Duper Tuesday.
Remember, Sen. Hilary Clinton proved that polls are not always accurate. Do not buy that Sen. "F--- You" McCain is already up nine percent in Michigan. Of course he is. After all, he did win in New Hampshire. Polls can fluctuate and have this whole election season. Who would have thought that the Rev. Mike Huckabee would be in the thick of the race at this point?
It is up to us to stop this stealing of our right to choose our nominee. Stand up to the DDBMSM and coalesce around Mr. Romney.
And here is another thing. If Mr. Romney wins Michigan and starts winning and gets the Republican nomination and should win the White House, he will be able to thank conservatives by giving us a conservative justice or two on the supreme court. On tax reform. And, really fight the Islamofacsist terrorists.
To Mitt Romney, JUST SAY NO! Do not let the DDBMSM drive you out!

California May Really Matter This Time

For the Republicans, California may really matter in the primary season.
It looks doubtful that there will even be a prohibitive front-runner at that point.
But, there is something about how Republicans campaign here that will prove their overall grasp of campaigning smart.
Because the California GOP gave up the winner-take-all primary, the Republicans are distributing there delegates by congressional district.
There are 53 congressional districts in California. And 3 delegates each district. In a strange twist, a candidate can win the popular Republican vote, but not the majority of delegates. So, how does a Republican campaign in California?
Well, Mayor Rudy has been in the Bay Area a lot. And I think that he is looking at the Democrat-held districts. Because there are fewer registered Republicans, He believes that he can persuade very few and win many of those districts.
It appears that Mayor Rudy gets it and has a plan.
So far, it does not seem like any of the other candidates are looking that far out. But, they should. There will not be any steam-roller effect. So, there maybe as many as five realistic candidates who could take at least one district.
Here is what some should do.
For Sen. "F--- You" McCain. Concentrate on Riverside County. The lies Palm Springs and the desert with three districts. They are chock-full of retirees and perfect for your candidacy.
For the Rev. Mike, there are a lot of evangelical Christians in the central valley. They may be yours for the picking and can give you maybe a couple of districts and delegates.
Form Mr. Romney, go into the Silicon Valley hard. That is easy pickings. Then look at what is left, who looks the weakest and in for the kill. It is possible that both Sen. "F--- You" McCain and the Rev. Mike may not have the money to put a strong challenge anywhere in California, but they should. We are not that predictable and running in each district, anywhere can help you win the lion's share of delegates.
I could not tell you who will win, But a guess is that if Mayor Rudy survives to California, he can get the majority. But, no one can walk away from California with a majority of delegates. And that will add more fun to an already unbelievable race that we are having now.

This Race Is Not Going Away For Either Party

The most important fact that has come out of New Hampshire tonight is two fold.
For the Republicans, there is no front runner. There are three candidates that can claim victories, the Rev. Mike Huckabee, Sen. John "F--- You" McCain and Mitt Romney. Right now, that is the top three. Pay no attention to polls. That is the top o' the pack for the Republicans. This week.
The Democrats also do not have a front runner. However, thanks to Sen. Satan, er Clinton's marginal win over Sen. Barack Obama, their field is winnowed down to two. And they will not have any easier time than the Republicans.
And, this may really becoming the death march to the nomination, especially for the Republicans.
But, here are observations for the next couple of weeks, no predictions.
Mitt Romney has to win one. A big chance is Michigan next week. It is where the Romney family name carries some weight with Mr. Romney's dad, George, was governor for three terms. But, there are some mountains that get in the way. One is Sen. "F--- You" McCain. He will push hard to get those pesky independents to come out once again. That strength is probably in the Detroit area. And there is the Rev. Mike. Western Michigan is ripe with evangelical Christians and while the Rev. Mike is staking claim to South Carolina, he may also make a push for those independents. And that could splint the independent vote and give Mr. Romney the inside push and come out a winner. And, if that happens, a win is a win. But, this electorate is not going to make it easy. I think it is time to emphasize why you want to be president and what you would do differently than say Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
Then there is South Carolina, different for different folks.
For Sen. Obama, he needs to get an overwhelming majority of the black Democrat vote and split the difference everywhere else. With former Sen. John Edwards out by then, maybe, you will probably split those voters with Sen. Satan, gosh darn it, Clinton! That will be a great comeback because Nevada probably goes to Sen. Clinton.
And, two Republicans will make their line in the sand. Fred Thompson and the Rev. Mike. Look for the gloves to come off here. It would probably be wise for Sen. "F--- You" McCain and Mr. Romney to put a minimal effort here. This is a good chance for Mr. Thompson. This is where he can do his kind of down-home campaign. Look for a lot of plaid shirts and possibly a pick up truck. There, you will find Mr. Thompson. A win here for Mr. Thompson and the Topsy-turvy race gets another good jolt.
All of this leads to February 5, Super Duper Tuesday.
I think, now I am not predicting, but that this will still not decide the nomination on either side.
For the Republicans, if one of the serious five comes in really badly, they are gone. Chances are that either the Rev. Mike or Mr. Thompson will not do all that well. But, no one candidate will emerge.
And, even though it will be down to Sens. Clinton and Obama, they may split the difference and the race continues.
And I do not think it will be a bad thing.
For too long, party bigwigs and blowhard pundits have wanted this to end quickly. Why? A battle-tested candidate is a better candidate in the general election. And, if both nominees and battle-tested, it will be an epic struggle for votes and states in November.
And that means that there may be a lot more "swing" states and that is a good thing. Complacency is not what we need now. A real race in both parties keeps up interest and gets the partisans fired up for the general election campaign.
Maybe all of this front loading was not such a great idea after all!

And The New Hampshire Winners Are. . .

OK, this is it.
In less than an hour the residents of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire have the fate of the free world in their hands as they are the first residents in the United States to vote in a presidential primary.
Now that some of the histrionics are done, what is really important are the predictions for the fateful primary tomorrow in New Hampshire.
So, without further ado, here they are:

REPUBLICANS:

Mitt Romney 35%
John McCain 31%
Rudy Giuliani 10%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Ron Paul 8%
Fred Thompson 6%
Duncan Hunter 1%

DEMOCRATS:

Barack Obama 40%
Hilary Clinton 30%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 4%
Dennis Kucinich 3%
OTHER 1%

The DDBMSM is so pushing the McCain line, but the "independents" are going to vote in the Democrat primary and for Sen. Obama. The real story will be how Sen. Obama will get the most votes of any candidate. Period.
Another factor why Mr. Romney will win in the GOP primary is that New Hampshire is slowly becoming like Massachusetts without the high taxes. The Democrats control the state legislature and the governor's mansion. While it went marginally for President Bush in 2000, it went for Sen. Kerry in 2004. And it was in 2006 that the Democrats took the state legislature. Just recently, New Hampshire passed and Democrat governor Lynch signed a same-sex "civil union" bill. Who would have thought about that just a few short years ago?
And keep this in mind.
Two nights in a row. Two debates. In the first, all the Republican candidates ganged-up on one-Mitt Romney. He came out of that standing. John "F--- You" McCain showed why is the the Vietnam era version of former Sen. Bob Dole. Mean, petulant, jealous. Next night, it was Mr. Romney who came out swinging. Had the Rev. Mike stuttering. Had Sen. "F--- You" McCain bumbling. Gave no quarter to Mayor Rudy or Fred Thompson. Mr. Romney won that debate. Even a Frank Luntz focus group agreed. And, it changed some minds.
For the Democrats, Sen. Obama is really hitting Sen Clinton hard. Almost making her cry today http://drudgereport.com. Losing two in a row is bad for Sen. Clinton. But, DO NOT RULE HER OUT! She is a fighter behind those tears and she will hang on until February 5, Super Duper Tuesday.
And, a final thought.
How do these pundits even get what is going on in either party? A month ago, it was Mitt and Hilary, no doubt about it. Then the Rev. Mike caught fire. Now, he is the "voice" of the GOP. And Sen. Obama. He did not get here by a few appearances with Oprah Winfrey.
It is a fluid race in both parties, more in the Republican field. So, the Rev. Mike will win one, then Romney, maybe McCain, no one knows really week to week. Hell, day by day. After Iowa, we were told Sen. "F--- You" McCain would blow Mr. Romney right back to Massachusetts. And, after Sunday night, it may very well be the other way around.
I am not a pundit. I just look at what is going on. Talk to real people, not fellow pundits, party hacks or campaign hacks for any candidate. Read around the blogs. Get a real feeling. All I do is write what I think. But, that does not make me Nostradamus. Nor any pollster for that matter.
We have an obligation to vote, and we all should. Lets participate in the election instead of letting pundits and pollsters do it for us.

Romney, Thompson Looked Good Tonight

Just done watching the Republican presidential forum on Fox News Channel http://FoxNews.com and here are some observations.
Firstly, it is great that Fox finally said enough is enough and said no to the Art Bell candidate, congressman Ron Paul of Texas. Because of that, we heard a lot from the serious candidates for president in the Republican party.
The format was even closer as each candidate sat next to each other as if they were at a sporting event, a movie, or a concert. It worked well and I do not know how the seating arrangements came about, but who ever put Sen. John "F--- You" McCain and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney next to each other must have a sick sense of humor.
Another thing was that there was no audience to get in the way. Just Fox News anchor Chris Wallace asking the questions and the five candidates, Sen. "F--- You" McCain, Mr. Romney, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, The Rev. Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.
The forum itself was great.
Sen. "F--- You" McCain was on his best behavior, but still unable to weasel out of his support and pushing the so-called "comprehensive immigration reform" bill-scam. Also, could not justify why one of the most inside Washingtonians as he is would be the best agent of change within the Republican presidential field. Saying that he changed the course in the Iraq theatre in the War Against Islamofascist Terror is not enough.
Fred Thompson may not be electrifying, but he is the one candidate who says what he means, explains his positions in simple English and basically lets it all out there. But, it may not be enough in this tough field. I wish he had gotten in earlier.
Rudy Giuliani has some good points to make, but kind of sort of falls short when the subject of middle-class angst came up.
And, one of the correct points the Rev. Mike does bring up is that there is anxiety among many in the middle class. The problem with the Rev. Mike, is solutions would add not just more to their anxiety, but possibly to their being put on an unemployment line. Again, in the overall, the Rev. Mike is just out of his league. He even looked hostile when Mitt Romney was giving an answer. It is never good to fold your arms and look like you are ready for a rumble, and the Rev. Mike did just that at one point.
And Mr. Romney?
He hit it out of the park and looked, sounded and acted presidential. Mr. Romney had command of facts and even turned the discussion on "attack" ads to his advantage. A winner tonight.
And, if you think that I am just shilling for Mr. Romney, a Frank Luntz focus group of 30 undecided Republican voters more or less agreed and it appeared that Mr. Romney changed some people's mind towards his direction.
So, I think Mr. Romney gave a great performance and may have staved off defeat from Sen. "F--- You" McCain. Mr. Thompson was a good second, but the Luntz focus group did not agree. When you sound like you would rather be somewhere else, I think it shows and no matter how much sense you make, people just do not gravitate towards you. I think that was Mr. Thompson's problem tonight. Mayor Rudy was alright and actually had a good point about the whole discussion of change. He said it depends on what kind of change. That is an excellent point. As noted, Sen. "F--- You" McCain was on his best behavior, but he just does not understand that he is talking to the Republican electorate. And the Rev. Mike? Well, he had a couple of lousy nights and I think that once the results come in on Tuesday evening, we will see that halo drop from the Rev. Mike's head.
And, here is another fearless prediction. It will be Mr. Romney winning the Republican primary and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) winning the Democrat primary on Tuesday.

If Mitt Is NOT The GOP Front Runner, Why The Gang-Up?

Tonight and tomorrow night the Republicans debate each other once again before the citizens of New Hampshire vote on Tuesday.
I have but one question.
If Mitt Romney is NOT the Republican front runner, why are all of the other Republican candidates ganging up on him?
The obvious answer is that Mr. Romney is the front runner and while it is possible he will lose in the primary on Tuesday, all the others know he has the money to go on. John "F--- You" McCain does not. And, Sen. "F--- You" McCain may have to take federal campaign matching funds if by some outside chance he is the Republican nominee. And the Rev. Mike? The shoestring should end in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Fred Thompson? Well, he may finish in second place. It could be a huge boost to South Carolina, but he won't get the cash he would need to keep up with Sens. Obama and or Clinton. And Mayor Rudy? Maybe the only other candidate who could raise the kind of money to keep up with the Democrats.
Also, it does not help to sound the populist drum in a Republican debate.
Conservatives and Republican people in the know realize that the party can not nominate some one like Sen. "F--- You" McCain. He will be another Bob Dole in 1996. And, we see how well that worked out. The Rev. Mike? Iowa was the big dance and he should fall on the floor on Tuesday and be a non-factor. Fred Thompson? He would be the Republican dream but he has been a nightmare and the slow style of campaigning is going to be a drag. Mayor Rudy? Now, he has been on a tightrope from the get-go because he has made no peace with the social conservative wing of the Republican party. One has to figure that once the Rev. Mike is gone and they look to someone else to champion their cause, it will either go to Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson. Even if it is a split, it helps Mr. Romney.
Also, keep this in mind.
George W. Bush won Iowa in 2000 and suffered quite a few defeats at the hand of Sen. "F--- You" McCain. Then came South Carolina and it was off to the races for then Gov. Bush.
This campaign will not have a firewall until Super Duper Tuesday, February 5.
But, the fact that all the candidates still standing are gunning for Mitt Romney shows that he is the front runner and someone, or all, have to stop him. But, as more candidates go down, no one maybe able to stop Mr. Romney.

Romney Wins Wyoming

As expected, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won the Wyoming Republican party caucus today, getting the lions share of delegates and the first win of the campaign.
According to those on the ground http://trib.com, it was because Mr. Romney visited the state and out of those that did, including Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter, they also won one delegate each.
It is important in this sense.
Mr. Romney is the only candidate that can visit every nook and cranny that will be needed to defeat the Democrat presidential nominee. None of the other so-called front runners have the finances to keep up with what will be a Democrat Tsunami of cash on hand.
Another aside. Today on "Weekend Live" on Fox News Channel, Washington Examiner writer Bill Sammon said that even if Romney should lose the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday and is in second place, he will show consistency and may end up being the anti-Huckabee and or the anti-McCain.
These are all things to keep in mind. A win in a state like Wyoming may not seem like much. But it shows some ability to do what the DDBMSM claims the Rev. Mike Huckabee does-connect with people.
Those that are running on identity politics such as the Rev. Mike and Arizona senator John "F--- You" McCain can only go so far. They are not running as Republicans. They are not trying to show any appeal beyond their special groups. The Republicans will need a serious candidate with the temperament and ability to reach all groups within the conservative-Republican coalition.
Mitt Romney is showing that. One win down, on to a win in New Hampshire on Tuesday!

Wyoming Could Be First Win For Romney

Did you know that tomorrow will be a another Republican caucus? Of course not because it is in Wyoming.
And, Wyoming did what so many others did in moving their caucus up in hopes of having some influence on the nominating process.
In a strange way, it may happen.
Of the major Republican candidates running, only former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has put any face time here. Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson is making a phone calling effort. And congressman Ron Paul of Texas is going to try to pull off an upset.
But, according to Jim Geraghty http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com, Mr. Romney should get the most delegates when the caucusing is all said and done. According to Mr. Geraghty, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter could get one or two delegates each.
But, Mr. Romney will have the lions share and a victory going into Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.
Look for Mr. Romney to play that up. He can also point out that the Rev. Mike Huckabee has not even stepped foot in Wyoming. Neither has Sen. John "F--- You" McCain nor former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani. So much for a 50-state campaign from any of the so-called front runners.
And that is a strength of Mr. Romney.
Unlike any of the so-called front runners, he is the only Republican candidate that will be able to have a 50-state strategy. Unlike the Rev. Mike, Sen. "F--- You" McCain or Mayor Rudy, he will have the funds and ability to compete in marginal Democrat states and keep the 35 red states. What Democrat state does the Rev. Mike think he will take? What Democrat states does Sen. "F--- You" McCain expect to win and keep the red states in his corner? Same for Mayor Rudy.
The only other candidate that had that possibility was former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson. But, he got in way too late and it shows.
Something that Mr. Romney knows that the other candidates do not is that unlike 2000 and 2004 this is a 50-state contest. No where is safe for either side. No George W. Bush on the ballot or lingering. No Al Gore, or John Kerry. It is a fresh, new ballgame. Everything must be taken seriously, even a small state like Wyoming. After all, look at all the attention paid to another small state, Iowa.
Mitt Romney should get victory number one tomorrow in Wyoming. Hopefully, it will lead to number two in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

Obama Hurts McCain

While surfing the net and looking at the mind-numbing analysis of the Iowa caucus results, my theory is that the smashing win in the Democrat caucus by Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) hurts Sen. John "F--- You" McCain in New Hampshire.
The reason is that New Hampshire is an open primary state. That means independents can vote in any party primary they want.
In 2000, it is how Sen. "F--- You" McCain won a crushing victory over then Gov. George W. Bush in the Republican primary. Gov. Bush won Republican voters in that primary. The same in Michigan. And in Virginia. And, Sen. "F--- You" McCain is trying the same pony once again, appealing to independents because he has little if any support in the Republican base.
But, that Obama win last night has put the chances of a repeat in 2008 in danger.
For the Democrats, it was a 2-1 participation in the caucus. Roughly about 239,000 for the Dems and about 103,000 for the Republicans. Both are very large increases in participation.
But, at least in Iowa, the momentum was with the Democrat candidates. Even Sen. Hilary Clinton, who came in an underwhelming third.
Thus, the independent voter in New Hampshire may feel much more inclined to influence the outcome of the Democrat primary rather than go for yesterday's news, Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
More than likely, if the New Hampshire independents go into the Democrat booth, the beneficiary of that will be former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who did suffer a serious setback last night in Iowa. There are no guarantees, but this one. It will not be the Rev. Mike Huckabee.
It is very possible that with less independent voters participating, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson could break through with a second place finish, ahead of his old senate colleague, "F--- You" McCain. The Rev. Mike might not even finish in the top four, possibly fifth place.
The hard part for insurgents like the Rev. Mike and Sen. "F--- You" McCain is that as the season moves on, the independents will have less say in primaries and caucuses. That means the more that actual Republicans get to vote, the two look less likely to win the nomination.
The other fascinating aspect of the Iowa outcome is that it is even clearer that there is something going on with the Rev. Mike and Sen. "F--- You" McCain. As I noted in an earlier post, they are clearly tag teaming to try to derail Mr. Romney, Mr. Thompson and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani. It looks more and more that way.
But, it may not work. And in a strange way, Republicans opposed to both may have Sen. Obama to thank for that.

After All Of This, Is Iowa Really All That Big Of A Deal?

An interesting piece on the New York Observer website http://www.observer.com/2008/brief-history-iowa-new-hampshire-bounce shows that what happens in Iowa does not always translate into much when it comes to New Hampshire.
Some examples on the Republican side show that if the results of the 1988 caucus were taken at face value, we would have had a possible one-term Pat Robertson presidency. For Rev. Robertson finished a strong second behind former Kansas senator Bob Dole. Then Vice-President George H. W. Bush had a dismal 18% of the caucus vote. No Dole or Robertson in the end and Mr. Bush went on to get the nod and the presidency himself.
In more recent history, the 2000 caucus saw a big George W. Bush win over Steve Forbes, 42-30% with Alan Keyes coming in third with 14%. But, on the way to New Hampshire, then Gov. Bush got a sneak attack when Sen. John McCain finished first, 19% ahead of Gov. Bush. Some big mo!
Want to go back to a little ancient history and 1980 and we see that then former U. N. ambassador George H. W. Bush won the Iowa caucus. It is where we got the term "big mo" from. Mr. H. W. Bush thought he had it. A fellow named Ronald Reagan did not back down and when a strange event occurred in New Hampshire during a Republican debate in which a microphone was turned off and Mr. Reagan told the debate moderator "I paid for this microphone" and it was turned back on. And all the Republicans running for president at the time were allowed to join in the debate. Mr. H. W. Bush looked weak and thus the "wimp" factor came into play. Mr. Reagan cruised to victory in New Hampshire and the rest is history.
On the Democrat side, similar results have occurred.
In 1992, we should have had President Tom Harkin, the Iowa senator who had 80% of the caucus vote that year. Of course no one tried to compete in any seriousness in the state.
1988 was a year a lot like this. Three candidates bunched at the top, former Missouri congressman Richard Gephardt, the late former Illinois senator Paul Simon and the former governor of Massachusetts, Michael Dukakis. Well, we all know what happened there.
And in 1984, while former Vice-President Walter Mondale won the caucus, former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart became the anti-Mondale and could have very well won the Democrat nomination that year. But, alas, Mr. Hart did not and the humiliation of a 49-state loss to President Reagan fell to Mr. Mondale.
So, in the end, Iowa matters in the sense that this is but a first indicator on how some Americans vote when they have a chance to actually do so in a booth and not when called by a million pollsters trying to divine the outcome of an election before it occurs.
But, where Iowa falls short is that so few participate in the caucus. For the Republicans, at least there is more of a secret ballot. You have to actually write the candidate's name. For the Democrats, they set it up so that only a candidate that meets the 15% viability minimal is taken
seriously.
And, Iowa is quaint, but not a real reflection of the United States as a whole. And neither is New Hampshire.
So, the first real test maybe in Michigan on January 15. It is a primary for both Democrats and Republicans. For both parties, independents can vote and there is where one can see a real cross section of Americans voting. And there is where we can get a better idea of how this all plays out. This time.

And The REAL Winners Are. . .

OK, OK, I will congratulate the Rev. Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas for a victory in tonight's Iowa caucus. The Rev. Mike had the momentum and a reservoir of support from evangelical Christians that no one could seriously break and that sums up his win.
Some things to note.
Evangelical Christians make up a disproportionate number, roughly 40% of registered Republican voters. While they were not monolithic in their voting, the majority went with the Rev. Mike.
Look at the county-by-county results http://data,desmoinesregister.com/election08/caucus/rawgopcounties.ph, and you will see that Polk County is where the Rev. Mike got a huge amount of his 34% statewide vote. It is the county where the capital and largest city, Des Moines, is located. The Rev. Mike got a lot of favorable coverage there and it translated. It is the perfect area for a word-of-mouth campaign to get a good buzz.
Having said all of that, a win is a win and the Rev. Mike deserves his moment in the sun. And, it will be a very brief one as there is another caucus Saturday in Wyoming and then New Hampshire. Both are going to be more secular and tougher for the Rev. Mike to crack.
My man Mitt did finish a respectable second and has nothing to be ashamed about. Yes, he probably spent a lot of time in Iowa, but he was following a conventional wisdom. And, it appears that this maybe an election in which neither party will be able to follow conventional wisdom and that leads to the Democrats.
At least here, I got it right.
Sen. Barack Obama ended up easily winning the Iowa Democrat Caucus. The real battle is for second place and at the time of this posting, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards has a one point lead on Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-NY), 30-29%. While Sen. Obama won cruisingly with 38 percent of the "vote".
Since Democrats do not cast ballots as the Republicans, it is by a percentage of people who stood in the candidate's area.
At least here it is clear. Sen. Clinton ain't gonna get that coronation. And, she maybe badly damaged as she staggers into New Hampshire. And, even though he will have finished second, give credit to Mr. Edwards. This at least gets him into New Hampshire. He may not win there, but Mr. Edwards could have another second place finish, and it could be a rerun of tonight's result. It can be much more of a death blow to Sen. Clinton than any of the Republican candidates.
After all, Sen. Clinton has had a commanding lead in the Real Clear Politics http://realclearpolitics.com polling average, hovering in the 40s. If Sen. Clinton has another disappointing third place finish, then it appears that the Democrats are really serious about presenting their best candidate and win the White House. One thing about Sen. Obama, like him or not, his negatives are no where near Sen. Clinton's. It is possible that is what is weighing on Democrat voters minds.
So, what to make of this, the first time in this long death march to November?
The Republican race is truly a wide open race. While the Rev. Mike will get a buzz out of the win tonight, it will not be nearly enough for long term viability. He has to win a primary in which real people vote, not caucus. That is a tougher road. Mitt Romney is very much still in this race and may not win New Hampshire, but he will be in for the long haul. Fred Thompson is very much alive and will not bow out anytime soon. Even Sen. John "F--- You" McCain is looking up. Then there is, lurking in the shadows Rudy Giuliani. Do not count him out at all.
For the Democrats, this may be the beginning of the end of the Clinton comeback. When you have as high of negatives as she does, other candidates start to look better. And leading that group is Sen. Obama. Sen. Obama is positive, has a compelling story and just seems to connect with Democrat voters in a real way that everyone knows Sen. Clinton and to a lesser extent Mr. Edwards does not.
This is going to be an interesting race to the finish for both parties and this election takes on more of an importance than ever.

And The Winners Are. . .

As I am in the mood the be the seer of 2008, I am extending my all-seeingness? to tomorrow night's Iowa caucus and I will be a seer for both the Democrat and Republican candidates.

REPUBLICANS

Mitt Romney 31%
Fred Thompson 22%
Mike Huckabee 19%
John McCain 10%
Ron Paul 6%
Rudy Giuliani 3%
Tom Tancredo (Withdrew) 1%
Sam Brownback (Withdrew) 1%
Tommy Thompson (Withdrew) 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%

DEMOCRATS

1st Round

Barack Obama 25%
John Edwards 24%
Hilary Clinton 22%
Joe Biden 11%
Chris Dodd 9%
Bill Richardson 4%
Dennis Kucinich 3%
Mike Gravel 1%

2nd Round

Sen. Obama 35%
Sen. Clinton 34%
Mr. Edwards 29%

Because the Democrat caucus is complicated, the "2nd Round" means that once the candidates that do not meet the 15% viability requirement, those that favor the candidates that do can go on and support their second candidate. That will still help Sen. Obama most of all.
Thus, the victors of this beginning of the end of the caucus/primary death march are for the Democrats, Barack Obama and for the Republicans, Mitt Romney.
The reason will be the big mo' and the two winners will have it.
And what about those that do not win?
Well, for the Democrats in could be the end of the road for John Edwards. Look for Mr. Edwards to continue at least to New Hampshire and see where he finishes in an actual primary vote. For Sen Clinton, she has to win in New Hampshire next week or her general election viability will come into serious question. She already has some of the highest negative ratings in national polling data. And for Sen. Obama, who will win Iowa, he will have a better shot at winning in New Hampshire and a full head of steam heading to South Carolina, where he is leading in polls.
For the Republicans, Mr. Romney winning in Iowa may be just enough to fend off a strong challenge from Sen. "F--- You" McCain in New Hampshire. It appears that it will be close in New Hampshire for both men. And if Mr. Thompson finishes second in Iowa, he may have a lot of momentum to do the same in New Hampshire and vanquish the McCain candidacy. As for the Rev. Mike, he will go back into the second tier, to also-ran status and probably out of the race. Mr. Giuliani gave up on Iowa and they will have given up on him. A decent showing for Mr. Paul gives him life going into New Hampshire. Mr. Paul will be the one candidate, win or lose, who will be in to the bitter end.
And, if I am right, I should head off to Las Vegas and the sports books!

The Rev. Mike, Hypocrite

It is actually painful to write this about the dear ol' Rev. Mike Huckabee, but the former governor of Arkansas is a hypocrite and it is going to cost hi, a probable victory in the Iowa caucuses tomorrow night.
The reason is simple.
You do not hold a press conference, tell the assembled media that you have decided to pull a response to broadcast ads from former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and then show the ad to "prove that it was really done". But, the Rev. Mike did just that.
This past Monday, the Rev. Mike told a press conference that he decided at the last minute to pull a very personal attack ad against Mr. Romney. The Rev. Mike feels that Mr. Romney has distorted his record as governor of Arkansas. So, the Rev Mike took a holier-than-thou attitude and said that he could not in good conscience run such an ad. But, to make sure that the assembled media knew that he did indeed produce such an ad, he proceeded to show it.
According to the Politico website http://politico.com, the assembled reporters were howling with laughter.
But, taking $30,000 to produce an ad that you claim not to run and "show" it to reporters is the height of hypocrisy.
Where the Rev. Mike gets personal is when he accuses Mr. Romney of being a liar and that if a candidate would lie like Mr. Romney, he would lie as president. Cheap shot, Rev. Mike.
Going by the Rev. Mike scale, most if not all of the 42 men who have been president would not qualify because they may have lied.
But, is it a lie to point out deficiencies in an opponents record, as Mr. Romney did on his broadcast ads regarding the Rev. Mike? NO! It is what the commercials are all about. It is the voters responsibility to determine if they are accurate or not.
In seeing the commercial on Fox News Channel's Special Report http://FoxNews.com yesterday, the Rev. Mike showed his legendary thin-skin and it is very unbecoming of a candidate who loves to say, "I am a conservative, but I'm not angry. Too bad that he slipped into Pat Buchanan role to slam Mr. Romney as a liar.
Here is the problem.
The Rev. Mike can not have it both ways. He can not say that he is pulling an ad because he does not want to go negative and then show the ad, knowing that it will get free airtime and try to do a "Yuck, yuck, yuck !!!" as if he did not have a clue as to what would happen.
I trust the Republican voters in Iowa. If there is one thing other than an aversion to "negative" advertising, it is an aversion to a Huckster.